SEMO Weather with AJ

11/20/2025

Because of the dynamics I've decided to make a map for the 24th/25th. A large area will be seeing storms with another split energy system possible. By far the highest risk remains in the ArkLaTex region. However a few supercells may try to sneak into Southern Missouri. Large hail, strong winds, and a few tornados would be the risk if they do make it into the state. The area most likely to see the highest rain totals from this system rides from ArkLaTex, along the Missouri-Arkansas border, into Tennessee and Kentucky. This area will likely see another 2"-4" of rain on top of the rain to end the work week this week. When we total the 2 systems we see high end number of 7" and 8" of rain possible in less than a week.

By Friday, ill have the breakdown of that next system that everyone is talking about. There is still a wide range of possibilities here. There will actually be two more systems. One on Thanksgiving, one the following Sunday. One likely takes a more west to east track, while the other takes a southwest to northeast track. Obviously this is important because that means either a flat trough with overrunning type snow showers OR a big dip and steep trough to create a temperature gradient, which would bring the severe risk with it. Even im still torn on which will be which to be honest. But those are the two main scenarios possible. I should have worded it those way earlier tonight. Sorry about that.

11/19/2025

Southern Missouri should see high end rainfall totals between 4" and 7" through the 25th. Most will be closer to the 4" range but pockets to 7" maybe a little more, between the two systems looks possible. Again this is the higher end of the spectrum.

11/19/2025

Big thanks to Claire Conaway, Ashley Ward, Ross Kasting, Jacob Gordon, Casey Clover, Jada Brooks, Morgan Green, Mariah Johnson, Cory Reynolds, Tiffany M Bryant, Marilyn Davis Wages, Tammy Sue Sehn, TJ Scego, Lorrie Bay, Robin Crites Minton, Carrie Lesch, Jami Dawn, Courtney Murr, Angie Campbell Reynolds, Tom Donze, Tracy May, Logan Taylor, Erin Payne Johnson, Geraldina Nicole Peterson, Barb Bailey, Mary Susanna, Brenda McOsker, Clara Cedars, Clayton Clark, Sarah Shelton Hogue, Woody Rooker, Tabitha Portwood, Robert McOsker, Paula Wade, Misty Johnson, Edna Hernandez, Cynthia Young, Randy Reeves, Courtney Hall, Belinda Nall, John Chaser, Barbara Strickland

AI image, I asked for a group of people learning about the weather and this is the picture it made.

for all your support! Congrats for being top fans on a streak 🔥!

11/19/2025

This map is not only valid for this next system with rain starting tonight and lasting through Friday evening, but the system expected the 24th is virtually identical, so im not going to make a new map. This map is also valid for the 24th. The 25th requires a new map further east. Ill get that issued shortly. A secondary front associated with the same system looks possible the 26th. That means Thanksgiving itself will be cold with a small chance for overrunning type snow showers. These are typically very light and do not accumulate very quickly, but a light snow is possible on Thanksgiving across Central and Northern MO, there is a very low chance but a chance nonetheless for southern Missouri as well.

The cycle storm we've been expect will be a few days later and get going Sunday to our west and come into Missouri the 1st. This is a little slower than previous forecasts which I've left out intentionally the past few days. Now everyone else is talking about a system that most likely will not be there for Black Friday. It will be later in the weekend into the following week. That system will be the strongest and have the highest ceilings for both severe weather in Dixie Alley and snow across the plains into the Heartland.
I need to add there is a small chance these two are reversed and the bigger system happens on Thanksgiving with the snow chances the 30th and 1st but I don't think the atmosphere will rebound fast enough for a system with that kind of potential, that quickly. This is why the dates have been pushed back for the bigger system

11/19/2025

Welcome new followers, almost to 18,000 of you now! here's a bit about me and how this page came to be.

As usual when there is impending weather my follower count grows. So before we get to the next round of systems I wanted to go over how I do things with everyone again, or for the first time if you are new. First and foremost I am not your average meteorologist, im not a meteorologist at all. I'm just a person just like all of you, except with Chronic OCD and PTSD. Weather is, was, and always will be my escape from lifes hardships. Ive watched and studied maps ever since what we called the No Name Storm hit us in Pinellas Florida in March of 1993. Our shed flew, our big oak went down and I saw for the first time the beginnings of tornados. So to answer the question, no degree here. What i do have is over 20 years reading and studying maps and radar. I was a promoter/chaser for Radaromega when they first started and own two of the original cyclonePORT systems. Ive had videos sold worldwide and was on the management team for SevereWxLive during its short run before internal issues arose with favoritism, and myself doing unpaid jobs others were being paid for but we're not producing. During that time we were able to sell weather videos for several team members. I was the one giving the daily stories headlines and what to focus on as well as editing for team members. It wasn't long after I left, that they closed the business. When I moved to Cape I had several instances where I would call in a funnel only to be laughed at by NWS Paducah. In most cases 15 to 30 minutes later the warnings would be issued but the tornado would already be past. I was in Perryville up until about 2pm on the day the EF4 hit but my gut told me to get out of there and i came south. I reported the funnel that ended up being a tornado right outside of a Mondi plant here but was not warned. I approached the local media about getting a radar for the area and again was laughed at. So I started this page to give more notice both during severe events and ahead of severe events. It was then, the local media sent their dogs on me for using certain terms. I generally start at two weeks out with my first forecast for any system. Normally I can see the size, general area, and sometimes storm mode even at two weeks out. At 7-10 days out i start dialing in those details and in general by 5 days out will issue my final forecast for systems. By then the only thing that typically changes is the exact timing, but I'll even have a good idea for that. If needed 2 or 3 days out I'll make adjustments. During a severe event i try to be live on radar, if not I'll post updates. During those updates you'll see me say storms have several levels of rotation. Just saying a cell has rotation does not mean it can produce a tornado, it simply means its spinning. i will often say it has weak, moderate and or strong rotation. I will always explicitly say the words tornado possible, likely, or confirmed once rotation levels are both strong enough and in the right location or if I see something in a linear segment that stands out. Take my words literally because thats how I mean them. Feel free to go back as far as you wish to check on my accuracy, and welcome to my page.

11/19/2025

A precautionary boil water advisory is in effect for 14,000 Cape Girardeau addresses through Nov. 21 at 9:15 a.m. Affected properties are displayed on these maps with a list of addresses available here: https://cocg.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/5db2c45d33234859accaf7f9eccc40ae

There is no known contamination, but water safety testing and verification can take 24-48 hours. An advisory is required due to a drop in pressure.

Those previously registered will receive a text, phone, or email notification. You can register here for future notifications at cityofcape.org/getalerts

Use only bottled water or water that has been boiled for 3-5 minutes then cooled for drinking, washing dishes, washing fruits/vegetables, making ice cubes, or brushing teeth.

The City was notified this morning of a construction incident that resulted in a temporary drop in system pressure and the issuance of a boil water advisory. At this time, our primary focus is on ensuring the safety and reliability of the water supply for all residents. City staff and the contractor involved are cooperating fully to restore normal operations as quickly and safely as possible. We appreciate the community’s patience and understanding while water system upgrades continue.

FAQ and an additional interactive map https://www.cityofcapegirardeau.org/departments/public_works/Water/emergency_resources

11/19/2025

Cell that went just north of Dexter obviously deserved a warning, but never got it

11/19/2025

Some storm damages in Scott City after last night's storms. Residents say they had little warning, it came only lasted about 5 minutes and was gone. This matches what we saw on radar with the warning not being issued until the cell was already in Scott City. We were watching and reporting these risks for at least half an hr before reaching Scott City. These cells did produce confirmed tornados in KY, nothing has been confirmed or even really reported in Missouri.

I was told by degreed meteorologists I was wrong, but the evidence speaks for itself. I'm learning people get stuck on certain dynamics and believe those are the only ways a tornado or severe weather in general can happen or be seen. I have news for you, tornados and severe weather can form in several different ways. We don't need high dew points for hail. You will not always see red against green for rotation, especially the further away from radar you are looking. Time stamps are crucial and being able to decipher and adjust on the fly is a must. Look at the big picture, not just the small details. The big picture will tell you what small details to look for. If you cant see what I see, thats not my fault or my problem.

11/19/2025

11/19/2025