SEMO Weather with AJ

06/18/2026

06/18/2026

I do not expect most to understand but let's go over what happened yesterday. First and foremost, the forecast was good. So why didnt we see this major outbreak? Well a couple things happened. First the morning storms were much stronger than anticipated and instead of a few cells we had a full blown MCS draw down some cooler air in northern Illinois. This took the exact path I had drawn for the supercells This delayed the airmass rebounding and kept lift just low enough to delay those tornadoes pushing them a bit further south. Once enough low level warmth and moisture moved far enough north, we saw the long tracked supercells.

Chasers, If you made the sit and wait play on my chaser map, you likely scored. If you chose the chase from Peoria, you may have scored but you had to work for it.

In Missouri it was a different story. We had plenty of heat, but we also had a bit of a cap. Shear was much higher than expected. Look at the radar image showing the tops of storms being blown off some 20 miles to the east southeast. So what happened? I feel the shear was actually too much for the updraft to sustain once it was impacted by the cap. This stops the upward momentum and can even knock clouds back down if the cap is strong enough. The shear then disconnected the updraft from the surface, killing the lifting mechanism. Even a little less shear would have allowed updrafts to sustain, but as it was, as soon as the tops got blown off, the storm was toast. The exception was actually expected and was in its usual spot at the tail end of the moisture inflow, which would have been southwestern missouri.
Many are still waking up to damaged or no homes, so before you cry bust, take a deeper look at what actually happened yesterday. A bust is when the ingredients do not come together, they certainly did yesterday...

06/18/2026

Better than an alcoholic with a gun. Ma*****na users may be calm and hard to get riled up, that doesn't mean they can't or won't protect their own. Game Changer...

06/18/2026

Most of missouri is drought free, the exception of course, SEMO. Much better rain chances this weekend but totals not all that impressive.

06/18/2026

No changes for this weekend. No outbreak expected. Warnings will likely be isolated but over a large area. Flash flooding remains the key factor

06/18/2026

I know many were waiting for me to go live, but it took everything I had just to post. My heart just isnt in it, its with my cat, Gohan who passed. As of last text Bill was still in ICU in Florida for the breathing machine.
I also know many are disappointed and already calling bust, but the forecast verified. I was off to the north by about 20 miles on the long tracked supercells, but they happened or are still happening. So is the flooding. The surprise was the missouri storms going tornadic is it was thought shear would be a bit lower here. It was not, but was short lived as expected. Ive already posted maps for Saturday and Sunday. Ill update tomorrow but im done for today. Post those pictures and videos. If you want me to post your video it needs to be sent via messenger or I wont be able to download it. By sending it you give permission for me to post giving you proper credit. Pictures I will always ask permission before use.

06/18/2026

KIND - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 7:54 PM
Possible debris right over I70 in Terra Haute

06/18/2026

KSGF - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 7:03 PM
Both of these could produce otherwise a temperature inversion and the shear should start knocking these storms down.

06/17/2026

KILX - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 6:56 PM
First area of rotation is in Terr Haute now the second now has a PDS warning and still on track for the metropolis

06/17/2026

KILX - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 6:37 PM
Definitely a second tornado chance on the heels of the first tornado warned cell