05/18/2025
⚠️ SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
Complicated forecast with multiple rounds of rain and storms is upcoming. I'm gonna start off by saying that this doesn't look like a repeat of Friday's system, but you should still take any severe weather risk seriously. Doesn't matter if the risk is 1/5 or 5/5, it can still have impacts and you want to have your severe weather safety plan in place.
That being said, Monday night we will have some severe storms mostly affecting our western/St. Louis counties (along the MS river). This will be mostly after 10 pm with damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes all being a possibility so you'll definitely wanna have a way to get warnings that will wake you up if needed. Flash flooding could also occur in some spots.
Tuesday is complicated and has a lot of boom or bust potential. Below is a map showing simulated radar for 1 pm Tuesday afternoon. This model is showing a pretty intense bow echo capable of widespread wind damage and spin up tornadoes. Some other models have hinted at more discrete supercells which would bump the tornado risk up a bit. I'm not going to entirely rule out the possibility of a strong tornado on Tuesday but this would be a conditional threat and right now is just something to keep an eye on and wait for updates. I will have much more on this over the next 24 hours so stay tuned!