Carbondale/Jackson County IL Weather

10/17/2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours. A few of these storms may be strong to severe between 12 and 6 PM. Parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois are where the slightly higher threat resides, with storms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall in addition to a tornado or two.

10/17/2025

10/17/2025

10/16/2025

⛔️ SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY SATURDAY OCT 18TH—

⏱️ Timing: 1p-9p Saturday
⛈️ Multiple rounds possible
⚠️ Damaging winds up to 75 mph
⛈️ Small hail
🌪️ A few brief tornadoes possible
- STAY TUNED TO UPDATES

Discussion: Instability remains in question, and could limit a more robust severe weather event, but if we get more sunshine and heating ahead of a fairly potent squall line, then confidence would increase in a potentially significant damaging wind risk. This is conditional. If there are multiple rounds of storms ahead of the main frontal forcing, then I think the severe weather risk would diminish. Still a lot to iron out, but the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the slight risk east to include all of our counties south of I-64. Not much of a tornado risk, but it isn’t zero and a few spin ups remain possible. Stay tuned for updates!

10/16/2025

📣 Stay tuned for further forecasts as the weekend approaches, but start planning ahead if outdoor activities are involved.

10/14/2025

CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS RETURN SATURDAY‼️as a strong cold front associated with strong jet stream winds will be overspreading the Central US. Risk for tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds all appearing possible with this wave!!

Watching it closely!! 👀

06/18/2025

DANGEROUS STORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY‼️: More Severe Storms are expected on Wednesday from the Great Lakes region all the way down into Eastern Oklahoma.

GREATEST TORNADO THREAT🌪 will exist in two areas. First area will be along a lifting warm-front across MI/IN/OH where wind shear will be maximized. SPC has considered UPGRADING the tornado threat in later outlooks once storm mode becomes more certain. Secondary area of maximized tornado threat will be along a meso-low slowly moving across Eastern MO and Western IL. This may enhance shear and promote tornado genisis through vorticity and big CAPE values.

06/17/2025

⚠ SEVERE WEATHER RISK UPGRADED TO LEVEL 3/5 FOR WED-

The Storm Prediction Center has now upgraded the entire viewing area to a level 3/5 risk for severe weather, including a 30% damaging wind risk and a 5% tornado risk. This is by no means a "huge severe weather day" necessarily, but it's worth paying attention. A few tornadoes are certainly on the table and widespread damaging winds will be possible. We're looking at a 1pm-9pm timeframe. Be on the look out for updates!

05/20/2025

[8:30 PM Monday, May 16, 2025] A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Illinois and Missouri until 3 AM CDT.

05/18/2025

⚠️ SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON-

Complicated forecast with multiple rounds of rain and storms is upcoming. I'm gonna start off by saying that this doesn't look like a repeat of Friday's system, but you should still take any severe weather risk seriously. Doesn't matter if the risk is 1/5 or 5/5, it can still have impacts and you want to have your severe weather safety plan in place.

That being said, Monday night we will have some severe storms mostly affecting our western/St. Louis counties (along the MS river). This will be mostly after 10 pm with damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes all being a possibility so you'll definitely wanna have a way to get warnings that will wake you up if needed. Flash flooding could also occur in some spots.

Tuesday is complicated and has a lot of boom or bust potential. Below is a map showing simulated radar for 1 pm Tuesday afternoon. This model is showing a pretty intense bow echo capable of widespread wind damage and spin up tornadoes. Some other models have hinted at more discrete supercells which would bump the tornado risk up a bit. I'm not going to entirely rule out the possibility of a strong tornado on Tuesday but this would be a conditional threat and right now is just something to keep an eye on and wait for updates. I will have much more on this over the next 24 hours so stay tuned!