05/31/2026
5/31/26 Sunday 7:20PM:
Ok so when we get stalled frontal activity, warm sea surface temps in the low 80's (or higher) and High pressure to the north, coastal Low pressures can spin up. There is an old saying called "A ridge over troubled waters" - where the ridge is another word for high pressure and low pressure exists to the south. Out of the mess over SC/GA, we could see cyclogenesis begin tomorrow as the high expands east over the Atlantic. For now, models have not locked in exactly where the low will form, which is why you see the loop showing a very jerky and disorganized exacting of where/when it starts. Either way, it will be heading east away from the coast. Will it become tropical in nature? It could make an attempt and waters are just warm enough if it sheds the frontal activity (called a "baroclinic environment") and develops on its own - known as a "barotropic environment". One of the criteria to meet for a tropical cyclone is that it has to be free of being wrapped up in frontal activity. Also, there are two other things going against it right out the gate:
1. Westerly upper shear pushing storm tops east.
2. A cold front dropping into the region Mon/Tues that will add to the baroclinicity once again - and likely rip it apart well offshore.
The NHC does not have it circled at this time and I suspect they will not do so unless a very convincing area develops and creates a 10-20% chance in the very least. This is a good example of how we have to watch these areas closely for possible homegrown systems to develop as we start the hurricane season for the Atlantic basin tomorrow. In short, nothing to worry about except for some locally heavy rains for portions of SE Georgia and coastal SC through tomorrow. Much needed rainfall by the way!
