10/09/2026
10/9/26 Friday per the 4AM CDT Update:
Hurricane :
Winds 110 mph - now just 1 mph shy of a CAT 3 (Major) hurricane
Pressure down to 963mb
Heading NNE at 15mph (picking up forward speed) and is expected to make landfall between Pensacola, FL and Mobile, AL late this evening.
As expected, Hurricane Isaias has been over the deeply warm waters of the Loop Current and has intensified to a strong CAT 2. With the eyewall building around the core and tightening up a bit, it is anticipated to strengthen a bit more today into a CAT 3. In time, however, it does run into a good amount of upper shear closer to landfall and is expected to weaken. Timing of this shear is very important as to whether it makes landfall as a major hurricane or just below that status. We hope for the latter. Either way, the impacts remain in place:
* Dangerous 5-7ft surge in the exact path leading to coastal flooding.
* Heavy rains 4-8" with a few spots possibly seeing up to 15" in the track, with 2-5" and up to 10" throughout the SE region.
* Urban, flash and river flooding.
* Widespread marginal risk for tornadoes tonight and extending across the SE region into Saturday
* Strong, damaging winds with widespread power outages along and just east of the track where tropical banding pushes northwards.
* life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
From the NHC:
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026
..ISAIAS STRENGTHENING.....PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION AS THE WEATHER WILL
GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY TODAY....
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 88.0W
ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS
* East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Isaias was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 88.0 West. Isaias is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today. On the forecast track, Isaias is
expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Saturday.
Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaias is likely to become a major hurricane this morning. Slight weakening is expected before landfall, but it is
expected to remain a dangerous hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Dauphin Island, AL to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft
Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Egmont Key, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area tonight into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning in the next few hours.
RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized
totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding
across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.
Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches
are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and
coastal Carolinas.
Flash and urban flooding is likely across the region, with
considerable impacts possible across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be significant.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
TORNADOES: A tornado risk will begin late this afternoon and
continue tonight in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas.
SURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
