09/05/2026
The $700 Million Question
A radio producer down in the DR, Francisco Rijo, dropped a massive bomb on X saying a highly credible source told him our Reds might actually put a 13 year, 700 million dollar contract on the table for Elly De La Cruz. Héctor Gómez backed it up too. If this is real, we are keeping Elly in Cincy through his age 37 season and handing out one of the biggest contracts in the history of sports.
But man, this creates a huge dilemma for the front office. Look at Sal Stewart. Our upcoming rookie has arguably been outperforming Elly in recent stretches and flashing insane upside with a level of offensive consistency that rivals what we get from Elly. Committing 700 million to Elly right when Sal is surging through the pipeline forces the organization into a tough spot. Do we make an astronomical long term investment now, or hold off for our cost controlled star? Giving one guy a mega deal could totally kill our financial flexibility to build around the other.
Then there is the huge cloud hanging over everything with the upcoming MLB lockout. The current CBA expires right after midnight on December 1, 2026. Everyone expects a work stoppage right after that deadline, which means a total freeze on trades, signings, and all official baseball business.
This pause completely throws a wrench into our long term roster planning. The owners are going to push hard for a salary cap to fix the crazy spending disparities, which the MLBPA has fought off for decades. Handing out a 700 million dollar deal before we even know the new financial rules is an unbelievable risk. We have no idea how future luxury taxes, salary floors, or cap holds will impact a deal this massive. If the owners get their way with a hard salary cap or they crush the competitive balance tax thresholds, taking on a roughly 54 million dollar average annual value for Elly while trying to extend Sal down the road is going to be near impossible for a mid market team like us.
So it begs the question, can the Reds actually keep both Elly and Sal under a new CBA? If a Salary Cap is installed, a lot of small and mid-market teams have their own stars they're reaching deep down to keep. When you eliminate the top 5 spending teams from consideration for Elly (due to being at or above a cap) and then factor in the fact that other teams may be struggling with similar questions around emerging stars, does it really make sense for the Reds to make this decision before the new rules are laid out for them? Does waiting risk him leaving for free agency soon after they figure it all out?
The reality is, if the goal is keeping them both together for the longest possible amount of time, the smartest thing to do is extending Elly De La Cruz, and worrying about Sal Stewart later, as he approaches closer to free agency in 2032.
