11/15/2025
Forecast Update as of 1pm PT:
Heavier bands of rain embedded within steady rainfall continue to increase in coverage across most of Southern CA, with some areas experiencing very concentrated heavy rain bands. Some of the main focus areas have been across the northern portions of Southern CA. Widespread flooding is already being reported, with some areas seeing minor flooding while others are experiencing more significant impacts. As we stated previously, we are still just getting started with the heavier portion of the rain, and coverage will continue to increase.
After all this, rainfall totals will be posted on the page Sina Moghaddami...
Lets talk other dynamics as well which will come a bit later...(evening - Sunday morning)
Thunderstorm Dynamics:
Later in the evening, there is an expectation of some clearing or a pause in the rain, which will allow instability to build and support potential lines of thunderstorms that may be strong with a few intense cells... given the dynamics, almost all metro areas are at risk for widespread thunderstorm activity becoming more scattered with time... all night into the early morning hours... Hit or Miss so if your area doesn't get hit, does not mean that's the case for everyone...
Any thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rainfall, frequent cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and gusty winds... and perhaps even an isolated tornado or funnel cloud if dynamics align...
We will also continue to monitor thunderstorm risks, as mentioned, since conditions could become more interesting later tonight, but this will be monitored closely.
Gusty Wind Dynamics:
Later in the evening after 4pm, winds will also start to increase as the main low approaches the region just southwest of the forecast area. Winds can gust between 20 and 40 mph, with some locations locally over 55 mph... and this does not include any stronger wind gusts that may occur with stronger thunderstorms...
Check out all the details on ZoneWatch, including scenario future radar and other products and alerts.
Flood Emergency continues...
Stay tuned for updates from Kevin and I (Sina)...
Radar and Models: https://radar.zonewatchpro.com/
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Stay tuned for more updates from us.
Sina Moghaddami
ZoneWatch CEO/VP of NWF
Raiden Storm
Master General Meteorologist/President of NWF