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US Weather Center, Crandall, GA (2025)

11/05/2025

Looking ahead into next week, the first significant cold snap of the season is forecast for the eastern two-thirds of the country. Below freezing temperatures could spread into much of the Deep South by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center extends increased chances for below normal temperatures for much of the eastern U.S. into late next week, with the East Coast being the most likely location for the below normal temperatures.

11/01/2025

SATURDAY TROPICS UPDATE WITH Bryan Norcross THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE THAT HURRICANE SEASON 2025 IS OVER

A winter weather pattern is forecast to settle over the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the tropical Atlantic. Hostile upper-level winds are increasing spreading across the tropical belt, which is typical of the changing seasons.

It's always possible for a random system to develop in the extreme southern Caribbean or in the middle of the Atlantic, but every indication is that hurricane season is over for the U.S. and the surrounding areas.

If this is it, 2025 produced 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 of which were Category 3 and above—including, of course, 3 Category 5 monsters. This was only the second time that three Category 5 hurricanes formed in one season. The other one was the explosive season of 2005, which produced Katrina, Rita, Wilma, after July Cat 5 in the Caribbean named Emily.

The 2025 numbers are very close to average. The official time period we determine what is “normal” is from 1991 to 2020. The average over those years was 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, with 3 of the hurricanes Category 3 and above.

The catastrophic and meteorologically stunning event of the year was, of course, Hurricane Melissa. Melissa was as strong and perfectly formed as any hurricane you're likely to ever see. And in a horrible bit of timing, it peaked just before landfall.

Melissa is going to generate a lot of research because it didn't act like most ultra-strong hurricanes. It never went through what's called an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), which would have had the effect of weakening the winds, at least temporarily, and expanding the breadth of the storm. Apparently the core was so perfectly formed, and the weather pattern around the storm so immaculately supportive, that the ERC was never triggered.

In addition, measurements of extreme winds in the eyewall—even stronger than the 185-mph official landfall intensity—will be double-checked and evaluated. The National Hurricane Center will publish a report on the storm in the spring with their final analysis.

The Jamaicans, Cubans, and Haitians are going to need our help for some time. So as we celebrate a hurricane season with no significant impacts in the U.S., let's keep the people there in our thoughts.

10/28/2025

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
1200 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
..MELISSA'S EYE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...
..STAY IN YOUR SHELTER.....1200 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!
Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents should remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection.

The next update will be provided at 100 PM EDT (1700 UTC), or as needed for landfall.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

10/27/2025

11AM ADVISORY: Melissa is now a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane with 165 MPH winds. Pressure of 908mb ties it with Hurricane Maria for the 10th lowest pressure on record in the Atlantic Basin. A historic hurricane strike is forecast in Jamaica tomorrow.

Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
..CATEGORY 5 MELISSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
..CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...908 MB...26.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern and central Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion in Cuba.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.2 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast and a faster forward speed on Tuesday. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica tonight and early Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night,
and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica on Tuesday. However,
Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane
strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles The minimum central pressure estimated from the latest Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 908 mb (26.82 inches).

10/25/2025

Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
..MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...
..LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cuban
provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is moving toward slowly the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected tonight through the end of the weekend. A turn to
the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to continue
over the next day or so and Melissa is forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow and is expected to still be a major hurricane
when making landfall in Jamaica early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).

10/22/2025

The National Hurricane Center now calls for Melissa to become an extremely dangerous Major Hurricane in the Western Caribbean by early next week. Hispaniola, Jamaica, The Caymans, Cuba, and The Bahamas should start hurricane preps as soon as possible. 🌀

11AM ADVISORY: Tropical Storm Melissa is meandering over the central Caribbean Sea with strengthening forecast in the days ahead. It is now projected to become a major hurricane by next week while potentially tracking near or over Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 ...

MELISSA DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...

INFORMATION/LOCATION...
14.4N 73.6W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 73.6 West. Melissa is moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn back westward by the end of the week. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches)

10/16/2025

Severe weather this week: A storm system developing across the Plains may cause locally severe weather in western Kansas and southwestern Nebraska today, before pushing into Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri on Friday. By Saturday, a threat for tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail is expected to develop across parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

10/16/2025

NOAA’s National Weather Service Winter Outlook has been released.

This outlook shows the likely temperature and precipitation the U.S. could experience during meteorological winter (December 1, 2025 through February 28, 2026) and drought conditions through January 31, 2026.

Here are the highlights:

🌎La Niña conditions are expected to develop later this fall and will be a factor in the winter outlook.

🌡️A milder-than-average winter is favored across the southern tier of the country and along the Eastern Seaboard.

💧Wetter-than-average conditions for the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes region, along with most of Alaska, are also favored. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast in the desert Southwest, along the Gulf Coast, and from Florida to the Carolinas.

🌤️Drought conditions are expected to persist and worsen from southern Texas to California.

NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that average temperature and total precipitation for the three-month period will be above-, near- or below-average and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead.

Keep In Mind: The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance, and cold weather can still be experienced in areas that are warmer-than-normal over the course of the season.

10/13/2025

The Linn Cove Viaduct on the Blue Ridge Parkway Parkway at sunrise in autumn.

📸Leslie Restivo

10/11/2025

Satellite view of the developing nor’easter off the Southeast coast this morning! It’s going to be wet and windy with significant beach erosion and coastal flooding - there’s even a tornado risk along the immediate coast

10/10/2025

A strong coastal low is developing and is expected to bring significant impacts to much of the U.S. East Coast through early next week.

There is potential for significant coastal flooding, strong rip currents and beach erosion, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rain.

10/08/2025

11AM ADVISORY: Tropical Storm Jerry a bit stronger over the central Atlantic Ocean.

It's forecast to pass near the Leeward Islands Thursday night into Friday as a strong tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane.

Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025
..JERRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
..EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 52.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 52.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A turn toward the northwest and then north at a slower forward speed is expected late Thursday into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

US Weather Center

11/05/2025

11/01/2025

10/28/2025

10/27/2025

10/25/2025

10/22/2025

10/16/2025

10/16/2025

10/13/2025

10/11/2025

10/10/2025

10/08/2025

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