US Weather Center

07/26/2025

TROPICS UPDATE WITH Bryan Norcross WE'LL LIKELY HAVE AN ATLANTIC DISTURBANCE TO FOLLOW NEXT WEEK

Computer forecasts continue to indicate that a fairly robust disturbance will move off Africa about Monday. The track is forecast to be far enough south that it won't immediately plow into the Saharan dust. There is a reasonable consensus in the various long-range models that the disturbance will track across the Atlantic and be in the vicinity of the northeast Caribbean late in the week.

None of the current projections show a storm of any significance when the system is near the Caribbean. It will have run a gauntlet of intruding Saharan dust, dry air, and only marginally conducive upper-level winds on its trek west.

If it survives with some sort of circulation intact late in the week, there is some evidence that the overall atmospheric pattern will become more conducive for storm development. The long-range computer forecasts that predict an organized system forming—both the traditional forecasts and the new AI models—generally show a track curving near or east of the Bahamas and off the East Coast of the US.

The odds of this happening are still in the low range, but the possibility is interesting because this is the first time that long-range projections have shown a disturbance getting far enough across the Atlantic to potentially develop into a storm. We'll see what happens over the next several days. Remember, the rule: Forecasts for systems that are just developing or are disorganized are subject to larger errors and will often change. This system hasn't even emerged from the African coast, so there's a long way to go.
The National Hurricane Center is not predicting any development over the next 7 days, so we're talking about more than a week from now before anything might happen.
EVIDENCE FROM THE PACIFIC

The National Hurricane Center has three areas to watch in the eastern Pacific. Each one has a decent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression, and computer model forecasts indicate a good chance they'll evolve into named storms. Two of the systems look to track south of Hawaii, and the third parallel to the Mexican coast.

Over the next few weeks, a number of computer forecasts are predicting multiple eastern Pacific storms.

The possible tie to Atlantic storm development is related to the phenomenon called the MJO. The MJO is a large-scale pulse that slowly revolves around the Earth, alternately suppressing and enhancing storm development. Over the next week or so, forecasts predict that the enhancing phase will cross the eastern Pacific. This might be responsible for the predicted outbreak of organized storms.

If the MJO pulse continues moving west as predicted, it would move over the Atlantic from west to east through the first part of August. This would, broadly speaking, make the atmospheric pattern across the tropics more conducive for development. This MJO forecast adds a little credence to the idea that the Atlantic disturbance might be more inclined to develop a week or 10 days from now.

None of this is surprising, of course. On average, the odds of storm development increase in August and dramatically increase after August 15.

IN THE GULF

The disturbance we watched track across the northern Gulf has died out, but the moisture lingers from Mississippi to East Texas. Tropical downpours causing local flooding are still possible. Stay aware.

The moisture should move out after the weekend, but extreme heat will move in. The combination of heat and humidity will likely push the feels-like temperature into the 110°F range. Stay cool.

07/25/2025

Dangerous heat is forecast to expand into the Southeast this weekend, while lingering across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Little relief will be available overnight as lows only drop into the upper 70s. Stay hydrated and check on your friends and family....

07/24/2025

TROPICS UPDATE WITH Bryan Norcross - WATCHING THE GULF WHILE THE ATLANTIC STRUGGLES TO WAKE UP

The weak disturbance moving across the northern Gulf is being stretched by hostile upper-level winds. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a slight chance of developing a circulation and becoming a tropical depression. Computer forecasts indicate that the system’s best chance of organizing might come tomorrow when it’s approaching Texas. For a short time, the upper winds might let up a bit.

Even in the unlikely event the system becomes a depression, however, it wouldn't change the impacts along the coast.

The disturbance is pulling a blob of tropical moisture with it. Bands of strong thunderstorms will continue to push west across coastal sections of Louisiana and the north-central Gulf coast and into Texas tomorrow. The moisture will hang around at least through Saturday. Several inches of rain will fall in some spots along and just inland of the Gulf Coast. Local flooding is possible.

Don’t look at the specific areas that show heavier rain in the red and orange colors on this map. The point is that some pockets of heavy rain are likely.

This system is moving along at a pretty good clip, so storms aren't expected to linger like they did with the disturbance tagged Invest a couple of weeks ago. Still, with some severe thunderstorms and tropical downpours likely, stay aware of any alerts issued by the National Weather Service along the Gulf Coast.

IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC

We're getting conflicting signals from the Tropical Atlantic. On one hand, disturbances moving off Africa are increasingly robust. And there is a corridor of very warm water from Africa across to the Caribbean, so the ocean temperature is not an issue.

On the other hand, the Saharan dust is hanging on, and the upper-level pattern is not conducive to systems developing and making their way across the tropical belt. In the Pacific, the water temperature along the equator southeast of Hawaii is edging toward La Niña. If the current trend continues, on average, we would expect the upper-level winds to eventually become more conducive to development across the Caribbean.

Some long-range computer forecasts continue to show a chance of a system developing east of the Caribbean around the beginning of August. But it's a big maybe.

When you add up the pluses and minuses, the minuses look a little bigger at the moment, which they would normally be at this point in July. On average, hurricane season doesn't really ramp up until mid-August so in some sense we're looking under rocks for something to talk about.

Most importantly, there's no sign of anything threatening developing for the rest of the month.

07/22/2025

TROPICS UPDATE: WITH Bryan Norcross A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF WHILE THE ATLANTIC STAYS DUSTY

A cold front moving off the Carolina coast and an upper-level disturbance over the Bahamas are gathering tropical moisture east of Florida and extending into the Atlantic. A weak low-pressure system has formed off the North Carolina coast. This system and the upper-level low will drift into the Gulf over the next few days, increasing the chance of tropical downpours over the Florida peninsula and along the northern Gulf Coast.

If this seems like déjà vu, take away the upper-level low and it's the same scenario we saw a couple of weeks ago with Invest . The various computer forecasts are not predicting this system to be as robust as 93L, and there's no indication of tropical development at this point. In any case, it will be something to keep half an eye on.

These systems look to enhance rainfall over Florida at least through Thursday, and along the Gulf Coast until the end of the week.

IN THE ATLANTIC

The tropical disturbance (Invest ) we were following is not going to develop. It couldn't organize a full circulation, and nearby dry air and Saharan dust took their toll. The moisture from the system will pass through the southeastern Caribbean islands tomorrow and Thursday. The system, such as it is, will die out in the Caribbean.

Healthy-looking disturbances are moving off Africa on schedule, but for at least the next week, the dust and dry air look to prohibit any development. Overall, the dust appears to be slowly decreasing on schedule now that we're at the end of July. Saharan dust season end, on average, around the middle of August.

Some of the long-range computer forecasts, including the new Google AI model, indicate the possibility of a disturbance organizing in the central tropical Atlantic around the end of the month or the beginning of August. We'll see.

07/20/2025

This electrifying photo has been circulating on social media! A lightning strike was captured hitting a home in Conway, SC!

📷 Jen Madsen

07/20/2025

Another beautiful shelf cloud from Lexington, KY. Pic was taken yesterday (SATURDAY)

📸 Taylor Berryman

07/20/2025

SUNDAY TROPICS UPDATE: WITH Bryan Norcross FRINGY DISTURBANCES TO KEEP AN EYE ON

The tropical disturbance that came off Africa last week is more than halfway to the Caribbean. It's not showing any signs of organization. The National Hurricane Center has the chances in the low category that it will ever meet the requirements to be called a tropical depression.

It will be traveling over warm water in a somewhat conducive atmospheric environment, except that it's brushing up against extremely dry air. It's still possible that it could find a small pocket of conditions conducive to development over the next day or two, but it's unlikely.

On the current schedule, it will be in the vicinity of the Caribbean islands Wednesday or Thursday. The atmospheric pattern near and over the islands is forecast to be quite hostile, so even if it momentarily develops over the open ocean, it looks likely to be a weak system, probably just a moisture surge, when it passes into the Caribbean Sea.

There's no indication that this system would have time or the atmospheric support to become terribly strong.

It's been unusually dry across the tropics, so some rain over the islands would be beneficial.
There is nothing imminent elsewhere in the tropics, but another rain-making front will straddle North Florida from the northern Gulf to off the Southeast coast later this week.

This is a similar scenario to what we went through last week that generated the tropical disturbance in the Gulf. In fact, a case can be made that a piece of last week's disturbance will be part of this one.

Like last week, a strong high-pressure system to the north - this one will be the heat-dome high producing extremely hot weather across parts of the Mid-South and Midwest - will provide the steering for any disturbed weather that develops along the old front. The flow around that high will push the moisture and any disturbance that might form from east to west across Florida and into the northern Gulf.

There's nothing to look at now, and there's no indication that an organized system will develop, but more rounds of heavy rain are possible in Florida and along the Gulf coast.

Broadly speaking, the tropics are still shut down. But that doesn't mean low-end systems won't try to spin up on the fringes of the big high-pressure system covering the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and most of the Gulf. We'll keep half an eye on things, but there's nothing of concern.

07/16/2025

7/16 update - Here's the latest regarding the heavy rain threat from the tropical disturbance over the northern Gulf.

The main threat continues to be heavy rain as this system moves west across the northern Gulf. There is still a 40% chance of tropical cyclone development. Even if the system develops, it is expected to remain weak.

There has been a very slight decrease in the overall forecast rainfall totals, but we're still forecasting 3-5" of rain across areas along/south of the Interstate 10 corridor with 1-3" forecast north of the interstate. Locally higher amounts up to 10" remain possible.

Some storms will be capable of producing very efficient rainfall with 2-3" of rain in a short period of time. This will result in a threat of at least localized flash flooding especially Thursday and Friday. The threat diminishes through the day Friday into Saturday.

With street flooding likely at times, if your normal route includes low lying roads such as underpasses or other areas that flood easily, plan ahead so you can avoid them if flooded. Remember: Turn around, don't drown!

07/15/2025

Hello everyone here is the latest on Invest AL-93 from Bryan Norcross

TROPICS UPDATE: DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DRENCH FLORIDA - COULD DEVELOP IN THE GULF

The tropical disturbance that created bands of torrential tropical downpours yesterday will move across the Florida Peninsula today. Heavy rain with local flooding and frequent lightning is likely over the Florida Peninsula once again. Stay aware of flood alerts that are issued by the National Weather Service.

The disturbance is showing some signs of a circulation, but it's disorganized and broad. The air is already extremely humid over Florida, and the disturbance is bringing more tropical moisture with it. The moisture combined with the heating of the day will likely produce intense, slow-moving thunderstorms – the type that can cause local flooding.

The system is forecast to move into the Gulf tomorrow where it might have a chance to organize over the very warm water. The National Hurricane Center has the odds of it becoming at least a tropical depression in the medium range. According to the computer forecasts, if it does develop an organized circulation, it's most likely to do it late tomorrow or early Thursday when it is approaching Louisiana.

Interestingly, most of the computer forecasts show a fairly weak system in the vicinity of southeastern Louisiana by Thursday. But the new Google experimental AI model and some others indicate that the system could quickly spin up into a reasonably strong storm. The name would be Tropical Storm Dexter.

The idea is that the model gives us a reasonable range of possibilities, so we know what to ready for. It's not a forecast as much as it's a heads up. So the strength of the system is an open question, but the very heavy rain over the northern Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana looks likely. Be ready for flood watches to be issued for areas along the coast.

As always, forecasts for disorganized or just developing systems are subject to greater errors and often have to be adjusted when and if a consolidated circulation develops.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a robust tropical disturbance is midway between Africa and the Caribbean. It’s on a southern track and will likely bring a noticeable moisture surge to the southeastern Caribbean islands and Venezuela late in the week. The tropical ocean is still blanketed with dry air and Saharan dust, so development is not expected. But it’s a reminder that the African disturbance-producing system is working.

The ocean water temperatures are warming between the Caribbean and Africa, so in a couple of weeks, we'll start looking in that direction for possible development.

07/15/2025

Here is the latest on Invest 93-L

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night, eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

07/13/2025

TROPICS UPDATE: An area of low pressure is forecast to form off the Southeast US coast and cross over Florida early week.

Once it reaches the Gulf while continuing to track west, it will have a low chance of organizing into a tropical system.

Regardless of development, heavy rain is ahead for Florida.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure is likely to form near the southeastern
U.S. coast during the next day or two and then move westward across Florida into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system during the middle to late part of this week while it moves westward over the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the mid to late portion of this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

07/13/2025