08/11/2025
Part of this month's note that's relevant for those buying and/or selling in the Crozet market ...
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Has the market ever been bad?
Yes, the market has been different, and bad even. I’m going to do an in-depth market look next month, but for August —
We’re in a transitioning market. I said in C-Ville recently:
Local realtor Jim Duncan of Nest Realty says he doesn’t think interest rates are playing that big of a factor.
“I see the market is slowing due to intentional national uncertainty with respect to employment, tariffs, and the cuts that are affecting UVA and other educational institutions,” Duncan says. “Homes are absolutely still selling, and buyers do want to purchase.”
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It’s not the rates necessarily. It’s the world market.
I was talking to someone recently and they asked, "How could the sellers not know that they might lose money, or not make X% profit?"
My answer was simple - If all they know is appreciation and profit, that's what they are going to expect. If they bought their house in 2014, they have 12 years years of institutional knowledge.
If they bought their first house and sold in 2 years and made money, then bought and sold their next house in 3 years and made money, and they have now been in their house for 7 years, their expectation is that values only and always go up.
Transitions are hard. Understanding the market is hard, and feelings are not as relevant as data.* I tend to say very delicately, “the market does not care what you need or want to make or pay, the market is what it is, and here are the most relevant comps. Data can be shaped, but ultimately it’s unemotional and unbiased.
“I’ve been here and done this before” is one of the things I say that helps me give confidence to my clients, and candidly, to myself a bit too.
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In the "don't reinvent the wheel" category, these are a few images from the most recent CAAR report. The CAAR report is good enough for an overview of the Charlottesville area market. (click through to see the screenshots)
My caveats:
- Sold data does not reflect today's data: that's better seen by looking at pendings, actives, and days on market.
- I include withdrawn listings and expired listings when I am doing analyses for clients; these show what didn't sell, and for how much – very valuable insight.
- As I’ve said for many years, I’ll tell you in 18 months what happens tomorrow.
August 2025 | Note from Jim. August is upon us. Schools are restarting, fall is near, and we’re putting our helmet lights back on for the fall and winter morning rides. This month: navigating a changing market, pulling comps for unrepresented buyers, the value of answering the phone, and disclosin...