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06/03/2026

Forecast Discussion 6/3:

Morning satellites imagery shows mainly clear skies across the region. After several days of seasonable temperatures, summer-like warmth is set to make a return to western Connecticut as we head toward the end of the week. With high pressure building in, temperatures will steadily climb through Thursday before reaching their peak on Friday and Saturday.
Highs on Thursday should reach the 80s across much of the region, but the real heat arrives Friday and Saturday when many inland locations surge into the lower and middle 90s.

The good news is that humidity levels will remain relatively comfortable for early June standards. Dew points are expected to stay mostly in the 50s and near 60 degrees, meaning the air won't feel nearly as oppressive as it often does during summer heat waves. While it will certainly be hot, heat index values should remain close to actual air temperatures, likely preventing the need for any heat advisories.

The forecast becomes more uncertain by the weekend. Most model guidance still suggests that the majority of Saturday will remain dry for much of the day, making it the better outdoor day of the weekend. However, a developing storm system approaching from the west could trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon or evening, The shower and storm threat will likely linger through Sunday as a cold front slowly sags south. The exact timing and intensity windows will need to be further refined in the coming days. Temperatures get notably cooler into early next week.

06/02/2026

Forecast Discussion 6/2/26:

Morning satellite shows mainly clear skies across the region. After another cool start this morning, temperatures will rebound into the 70s this afternoon, which is right where they should be for early June. While much of the day will be dry, a few isolated showers could develop during the afternoon, especially across the higher terrain and inland areas. Most communities will not see rain, but don't be surprised if a brief shower passes through.

Wednesday marks the beginning of a warming trend as the cooler weather pattern (Omega Block) that has been hanging around the Northeast finally moves away. High temperatures should climb into the lower 80s across much of the area under a mix of sun and clouds. The warmest weather of the year so far is expected from Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s Thursday before climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s Friday and Saturday.

The good news is that humidity levels are expected to remain relatively low. Dew points should stay mainly in the 50s to low 60s, meaning the air will feel much more comfortable than a typical midsummer heat wave. While it will be hot, it won't be excessively muggy. A cold front is expected to approach late Saturday, bringing an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures should return for Sunday and early next week, along with a more unsettled weather pattern and additional opportunities for rain.

06/01/2026

Forecast Discussion 6/1:

Morning satellite images show mainly clear skies across the region. Our Omega Block pattern remains in control, with another disturbance arriving this afternoon that will likely trigger additional isolated to scattered showers. While there will be dry periods mixed in, skies will feature a blend of clouds and occasional sunshine throughout the day. Temperatures will remain slightly below average for early June, with upper 60s across the shoreline and middle 70s inland.

By Tuesday, the unsettled pattern (Omega Block) begins to wind down. A final upper-level disturbance interacting with a weak surface trough could spark a few isolated afternoon showers. It will be another day of partly to mostly sunny skies to start, with passing clouds and isolated showers during the afternoon. Temperatures will be a touch warmer, returning to near seasonal levels in the 70s.

A significant pattern change develops. High pressure building south from Canada and strengthening upper-level ridging over the eastern United States will promote a steady warming trend. Temperatures should climb back into the lower to middle 80s by the end of the week, with temperatures near 90 degrees across the urban corridor Friday and Saturday.
Fortunately, humidity levels appear manageable, with dew points generally remaining in the 50s, preventing excessive heat index values.

This is what it will feel like at 11AM tomorrow between the chilly airmass and the wind! Wild stuff for after Memorial D...
05/30/2026

This is what it will feel like at 11AM tomorrow between the chilly airmass and the wind! Wild stuff for after Memorial Day 😳

05/29/2026

Forecast Discussion 5/29/26:

Satellite imagery and regional observations show a mix of sun and clouds across the area this morning. Conditions will remain partly sunny through much of the day before clouds increase this afternoon as a colder pocket of air aloft moves into the Northeast. The colder air overhead will promote greater instability, and while much of the day will remain dry, a few scattered showers or areas of drizzle may develop late this afternoon and continue into the evening hours. The chance for scattered showers will persist overnight.

Attention then turns to Saturday, when the primary weather story will be the wind. As the storm system strengthens to our northeast, a tight pressure gradient will develop across the region, leading to widespread wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph during the morning hours. Winds should gradually diminish during the afternoon, but temperatures will remain well below normal for late May, with highs struggling to reach the lower 60s despite some breaks of sunshine. Given full leaf out, scattered tree and power issues are possible.

Conditions improve significantly on Sunday as high pressure builds into the region. Mostly sunny skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures to rebound into the 70s, making for the most pleasant day of the holiday weekend.

Looking ahead, the persistent omega block pattern remains in place through at least the first half of next week. This pattern will continue to support cooler-than-normal temperatures along with periodic opportunities for showers, especially during the afternoon and evening hours Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday currently appears to be the most active day, as increased instability may support heavier downpours and even a few thunderstorms. By Wednesday and Thursday, forecast guidance suggests the blocking pattern will begin to weaken, allowing for a gradual moderation in temperatures and a decrease in shower chances.

05/28/2026

Forecast Discussion 5/28/26:

Morning satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies across the region. It will be notably cooler than it was yesterday, with highs in the low to middle 70s. Atmospheric ingredients remain somewhat limited, with weak lapse rates, drier air aloft, and modest cap likely preventing more organized development. Still, a brief thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, especially across portions of the interior. The timing for any scattered shower/downpour/storm activity will be between 2PM and 7PM across the area.

The OMEGA BLOCK pattern will continue, and we are on the cool/unsettled side of the block. Therefore, the upper trough is expected to remain parked across eastern Canada and the Northeast, allowing several disturbances to rotate through the flow. These waves could spark periodic showers and perhaps even a low-topped thunderstorm from time to time. The best chance for unsettled weather currently appears to be Friday night into Saturday when a very cold pool of air aloft moves overhead. However, forecast confidence remains lower regarding exact timing and coverage, and current indications suggest this will not be a washout. In fact, much of Saturday will likely be partly to mostly sunny.

Longer range, temperatures slowly warm again into the 70s early next week. It will generally be a quiet stretch with partly cloudy skies. With this continuing OMEGA BLOCK pattern, it will be cooler than average and cannot rule out the chance of some afternoon showers.

Sunset was awesome tonight! Thanks to one of our favorite sunset spotters for this shot. 🌅📸 Sharon Poarch
05/28/2026

Sunset was awesome tonight! Thanks to one of our favorite sunset spotters for this shot. 🌅

📸 Sharon Poarch

05/27/2026

Forecast Discussion 5/27:

Morning satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies across the region. It will be another warm day today, with highs in the middle 80s across much of the region, with temperatures running about 10 degrees cooler by the immediate shoreline. A widespread canopy of mid and high-level clouds is expected to stream overhead through the day, limiting sunshine at times and potentially keeping temperatures a few degrees lower than they otherwise could be.

A cold front pushes through during the afternoon and early evening hours. As the front moves across the region, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop. At this point, widespread severe weather does not appear likely. Atmospheric ingredients remain somewhat limited, with weak lapse rates, drier air aloft, and a modest cap likely preventing more organized development. Still, a brief thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, especially across portions of the interior.

Once the front passes, temperatures settle back closer to late-May normals heading into the end of the week and weekend. The upper trough is expected to remain parked across eastern Canada and the Northeast, allowing several disturbances to rotate through the flow. These waves could spark periodic showers and perhaps even a low-topped thunderstorm from time to time. The best chance for unsettled weather currently appears to be Friday night into Saturday when a very cold pool of air aloft moves overhead. However, forecast confidence remains lower regarding exact timing and coverage, and current indications suggest this will not be a washout.

05/25/2026

Morning satellite shows clouds and showers moving through the area. A weak cold front is responsible for a period of showers sweeping from west to east across the region. A few locations could pick up a quick burst of heavier rain, which may lead to isolated ponding of water or minor urban and poor drainage flooding through 11AM, especially with the ground already saturated. The chance for thunder is very low, but a rumble or two can't be completely ruled out either.
Forecast Discussion 5/25/26:

The good news is conditions improve quickly through midday. Most of the rain should move east of the area by 12PM, followed by drier weather and even some breaks of sunshine developing later in the day. Clouds and showers may linger for a few more hours across far SE CT and RI, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. Temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 70s inland, while shoreline communities stay a bit cooler in the lower 70s.

Looking ahead, warmer weather returns for the rest of the week with temperatures climbing back into the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Most of the period looks mainly dry, although a few spotty afternoon showers could develop on Wednesday as a weak front passes through. There is a bit more uncertainty later in the week, but another disturbance may bring a few isolated afternoon showers on Thursday, mainly across eastern areas. Overall, though, much of the week looks warmer and drier.

05/22/2026

Forecast Discussion 5/22:

Morning satellite shows partly cloudy skies across the region. A fairly pleasant end to the workweek is expected on Friday as conditions briefly improve across the region. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with partly sunny skies prevailing through much of the day. Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid to upper 60s, generally ranging from 65 to 70 degrees. It will be a good opportunity to spend some time outdoors, as weather conditions are expected to deteriorate heading into the weekend.

Attention then turns to a developing weekend storm system that continues to bring increasing confidence in a chilly and wet period beginning Saturday. High pressure situated to our north will likely slow the northward progression of moisture initially, which may delay the onset of rainfall across parts of Connecticut. However, current guidance supports light rain developing between approximately 9 AM and 1PM across western and central Connecticut before gradually spreading eastward through the afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to rise, with highs only reaching the 50s under overcast skies. Rainfall becomes steadier Saturday evening and is expected to continue through Saturday night into at least Sunday morning.

Sunday remains the most challenging aspect of the forecast. Guidance continues to show differences regarding how quickly the storm system exits and whether drier air can work into the region during the afternoon. Confidence remains higher in a wet start to the day, with periods of rain likely continuing through the morning hours. The forecast becomes less certain during the afternoon, though the current expectation is for widespread rain to gradually transition to scattered showers. Despite any improvement, conditions are likely to remain cool, damp, and mostly cloudy through the evening hours. Temperatures once again will remain confined to the 50s.

Conditions should begin improving by Monday, though complete clearing is not expected just yet. A partly to mostly cloudy sky is anticipated with the possibility of a few lingering showers. Temperatures should moderate somewhat, with highs recovering into the mid to upper 60s.

The better weather finally arrives by Tuesday and Wednesday as a more favorable pattern develops across the Northeast. Expect increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures, with highs returning to the 70s. Looking farther ahead, long-range guidance suggests the pattern may once again trend warmer as we approach the start of June.

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