CT Weather

08/16/2025

Heads up if you’re at the Bridgewater fair, you may see a shower. A stray cell is transiting through the Hudson Valley, enroute to parts of Fairfield and southern Litchfield County.

08/15/2025

Forecast Discussion 8/15:

Morning satellite revealed mostly clear skies across the region. Dry weather is expected Friday through Saturday night, thanks to high pressure building in at the surface. Temperatures for your Friday will be in the middle 80s for most, and it will be a notch less humid than it was on Thursday. While patchy fog is possible in some locations Friday night and Saturday morning, Saturday will be another very pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s.

On Sunday, a cold front will move through late in the day, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, although there are little in the way of severe concerns at this time. Behind the front, high pressure builds in from the north, bringing cooler and drier conditions Monday through Wednesday with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s, especially away from the immediate shoreline.

In tropical news, Hurricane Erin is forecast to strengthen over the coming days and eventually take a “curved” track well east of the Outer Banks but west of Bermuda by the middle of next week. While direct impacts are unlikely, wave action will be enhanced on any ocean facing beaches, especially in far SE CT and RI. Rain or wind impacts are not expected at this time, as the hurricane will likely pass well offshore.

08/14/2025

continues to track across the Atlantic, now a 50 mph tropical storm. Erin appears more symmetric these evening, and may even be sporting a "mean face" on satellite as further strengthening is likely. Models take Erin ENE over the coming days, with an eventual Northward turn. The European was further west today, but remains a relative outlier compared the rest of the guidance. Exactly when Erin starts its turn will determine how close it gets to the East Coast, and the magnitude of any impacts. At this point, big surf and rip currents would remain the primary hazards to the US. Bermuda should be on high alert though!

08/13/2025

Great structure on the severe warned storm that went through Southern Litchfield County earlier.

📸 Jenny Eddy Douglas

08/12/2025

Forecast Discussion 8/12:

Morning satellite reveals clear skies once again across the entire Northeast as we get set for another mostly sunny and hot day across the area. Tuesday will bring another round of sunshine and heat, with high temperatures climbing into the low 90s. Humidity will gradually increase throughout the day, and skies may appear hazy due to lingering atmospheric conditions. Wednesday is expected to start similarly, with continued warmth and rising humidity. By the afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop, offering a chance for some much-needed rain, though coverage will remain limited.

A slow-moving frontal boundary will keep the threat of isolated storms in place through Thursday, although many models remain dry for much of the day. The European model currently suggests a more active pattern than the GFS and Canadian models, so forecast adjustments may be made by Wednesday night as confidence improves. A welcome break from the heat and humidity is anticipated from Friday through Sunday, with pleasant conditions expected—ideal for the Bridgewater Fair, which may avoid the muddy conditions seen in previous years. Meanwhile, Tropical System Erin is slowly approaching the U.S., but most forecast models continue to show it curving away from the coast. There is no immediate cause for concern, and daily updates will continue to monitor its progress.

08/11/2025

Forecast Discussion 8/11:

Morning satellite reveals clear skies across the entire Northeast as we get set for another mostly sunny day across the area. The region is still under the influence of a large area of high pressure sitting just offshore, which is keeping our weather calm and dry. Temperatures started off a bit warmer than yesterday, with lows in the upper 50s in rural areas and low 60s across the urban corridor. Today will be mostly sunny with a light breeze from the south or southwest. Expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s across most of the area, with a few of the warmer inland climate locations reaching the low 90s.

With humidity on the increase, expecting higher heat index values into Tuesday and Wednesday with heat index values reaching the mid to upper 90s in many areas. Later Wednesday, a cold front will approach from the northwest, bringing more clouds and a chance for showers or thunderstorms by evening, especially across inland areas. While some models show shower activity continuing into Thursday morning, I decided to opt for just ‘partly cloudy’ in the Thursday forecast for now, as there does not seem to be enough consensus in showers sticking around. Stay tuned!

08/09/2025

Forecast Update

As we move into mid-August, much of Connecticut is experiencing a slow but steady warm-up — and it could be the final official heatwave of the year. Model data suggest that several areas across the state may flirt with or exceed the 90°F mark in the coming days. If we see three consecutive days o...

08/08/2025

Forecast Discussion 8/8: Nice Stretch Ahead

Connecticut remains under the influence of a strong high-pressure system stretching in from the east, which will continue to dominate the region’s weather through the weekend. Expect mostly sunny skies with very little cloud cover, daytime highs in the low to mid 80s, and comfortable dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s. Nights will be cooler, especially in typical radiational cooling spots, with calm winds and clear skies aiding in overnight temperature drops. While wildfire smoke from western Canada continues to linger aloft, surface visibility impacts are no longer expected, and air quality will generally be improved.

Looking into next week, the weather pattern begins to shift as a blocking low over the western Atlantic slows the progression of an approaching cold front. This delay allows the ridge over the eastern U.S. to strengthen, leading to a warming trend across Connecticut. By Monday and Tuesday, temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 80s and low 90s inland, with rising humidity pushing heat index values into the mid-90s—potentially reaching heat advisory levels. A few showers or storms are possible in the afternoon Thursday and Friday, but this does not look like anything significant at this time. Overall, the state is heading into a stretch of hot, hazy, and mostly quiet summer weather.

08/07/2025

Forecast Discussion 8/7:

A shortwave disturbance moving south of Connecticut early this morning brought light rainfall to parts of the region, aided by localized moisture convergence. However, high pressure centered over Quebec remains the dominant feature, promoting clearing skies and dry conditions across the state. Hazy skies due to elevated wildfire smoke levels—originating from persistent fires in western Canada—will linger aloft, though surface visibility impacts are no longer expected. Tonight, clear skies and calm winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling, especially in typical low-lying areas, with lows ranging from the 50s to near 60°F.

Heading into Friday and Saturday, high pressure will continue to stretch in from the east, maintaining dry and sunny conditions statewide. Daytime highs will remain in the low to mid-80s, with comfortable dewpoints in the 55–60°F range. Nights will be cooler in favored radiational spots, with minimal cloud cover expected.

Looking ahead to Sunday through Wednesday, the pattern remains largely unchanged, with high pressure both aloft and at the surface keeping Connecticut dry and increasingly warm. Temperatures will trend upward, starting near seasonal norms and rising to 5–8°F above normal early next week. By Monday and Tuesday, inland areas may see highs approaching the upper 80s to low 90s, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s—resulting in heat index values potentially exceeding 95°F. A weak frontal system approaching midweek may bring a chance of late-day showers or thunderstorms, primarily northwest of the NYC metro area, with minimal impact expected for most of Connecticut.

08/06/2025

Forecast Discussion 8/6:

High pressure centered over Quebec will maintain dry conditions across the region through midweek. Hazy skies due to wildfire smoke from western Canada will persist, though surface visibility impacts are expected to be minimal. Another AIR QUALITY ALERT is likely for Wednesday. On Wednesday, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected due to persistent mid-to-high level cloud cover, with daytime highs generally between 80–85°F. Surface haze may reduce visibility to 5–6 miles in some areas, improving westward through the day. There is a slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm, but a lot of the short-range guidance has backed off the threat, and any activity is expected to be very isolated. Overnight lows will remain near seasonal norms, ranging from the 60s to around 70°F, with mid and high clouds limiting radiational cooling.

Looking ahead, high pressure will dominate through the weekend, keeping conditions dry with temperatures near to slightly below normal Thursday and Friday. A warming trend begins Saturday, with well above normal temperatures and rising humidity expected early next week. Heat index values may exceed 95°F inland on Monday and Tuesday. A weak disturbance approaching from the west could trigger isolated late-day thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.

08/06/2025

8/6/25 Forecast Discussion:

High pressure centered over Quebec will maintain dry conditions across the region through midweek. Hazy skies due to wildfire smoke from western Canada will persist, though surface
visibility impacts are expected to be minimal. Another AIR QUALITY ALERT is likely for
Wednesday. On Wednesday, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected due to persistent mid-
to-high level cloud cover, with daytime highs generally between 80–85°F. Surface haze may
reduce visibility to 5–6 miles in some areas, improving westward through the day. There is a
slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm, but a lot of the short-range guidance has
backed off the threat, and any activity is expected to be very isolated. Overnight lows will
remain near seasonal norms, ranging from the 60s to around 70°F, with mid and high clouds
limiting radiational cooling.

Looking ahead, high pressure will dominate through the weekend, keeping conditions dry with temperatures near to slightly below normal Thursday and Friday. A warming trend begins
Saturday, with well above normal temperatures and rising humidity expected early next week.
Heat index values may exceed 95°F inland on Monday and Tuesday. A weak disturbance
approaching from the west could trigger isolated late-day thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.

08/06/2025

Smoke continues to impact our latest forecast. Here are the details...

As high pressure settles over eastern Canada and ridging builds along the East Coast, the region is experiencing a stretch of dry and seasonable weather. But while the skies may be mostly clear of rain, they’re not entirely clear—wildfire smoke from western Canada is once again making its presen...