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Forecast Discussion 7/8: Flood Watch in EffectSatellite imagery reveals mainly clear skies across the areas this morning...
07/08/2025

Forecast Discussion 7/8: Flood Watch in Effect

Satellite imagery reveals mainly clear skies across the areas this morning. As a slow-moving cold front approaches, it will interact with a very moist tropical air mass, setting the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could produce gusty winds and torrential downpours, leading to a risk of localized flash flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect from 2 PM today through 2 AM Wednesday. While not every location will see heavy rain and flooding, some areas could receive 2 to 3 inches or more in only a few hours, especially where storms linger. There’s also a Level 2 risk for severe thunderstorms into the Hudson Valley and a Level 1 risk through the remainder of CT.

Tonight will remain warm and muggy, with lows in the upper 60s inland and low to mid-70s near the coast. Some showers or storms may continue overnight, but coverage should gradually decrease.

Wednesday and Thursday will stay unsettled, with the front lingering nearby. While exact timing and coverage of rain are still uncertain, scattered showers and storms are possible both days, especially in the afternoon and evening. The main concern will continue to be heavy downpours. Highs on Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 80s, with heat index values possibly approaching 95°F in a few spots. Thursday will be a bit cooler, with highs in the low to mid-80s.

Looking ahead to Friday through early next week, the forecast remains unsettled. A stalled front will linger near the area, keeping the chance for daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially across the interior. Despite the clouds and occasional rain, temperatures will stay near normal for early July, with highs in the 80s.

07/07/2025

Forecast Discussion 7/7:

The main concern today will be the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially from mid-morning through midafternoon. These could bring locally heavy downpours to the region, with scattered swaths of heavier rainfall. While not everyone will see rain, some spots could pick up 1–2 inches, which may lead to localized flash flooding. The moisture fueling these storms is left over from what was once Tropical Storm Chantal, though it’s no longer a tropical system. Most other areas may just see isolated showers or stay dry. Monday will also be warm and humid, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and heat index values in the low 90s. A HEAT ADVISORY remains in effect for Hartford and Tolland Counties. Monday night, the focus for showers shifts eastward, with a few lingering showers or storms possible across southeast Connecticut.

Tuesday will be even warmer and more humid, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values climbing into the mid to upper 90s. A cold front will slowly approach from the north and west, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Like Monday, these storms could produce heavy rain and localized flooding, and there’s also a chance for an isolated severe storm with damaging winds. The front may stall near or just east of the area on Tuesday night, keeping the chance for showers going into early Wednesday.

The rest of the week looks unsettled, with a stalled front nearby and a steady stream of moisture from the Atlantic. This will keep the chance for scattered showers and storms in the forecast through the weekend, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Despite the clouds and occasional rain, temperatures should stay near normal for early July, with highs in the low to mid-80s.

Very pink double rainbow after the storms cleared yesterday! 📸 Sean Wolfe
07/04/2025

Very pink double rainbow after the storms cleared yesterday!

📸 Sean Wolfe

Forecast Discussion 7/3:Today begins with patchy dense fog along eastern coastal areas, reducing visibility to around a ...
07/03/2025

Forecast Discussion 7/3:

Today begins with patchy dense fog along eastern coastal areas, reducing visibility to around a mile in spots through mid-morning. As the fog clears, sunny skies and warm temperatures will dominate, with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s, especially along the typical warmer Interstate 84/95/91 corridors. A Canadian cold front will move through the region this afternoon into early evening, triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary threats. The best chance for storms will be between 1PM and 6PM with an isolated threat continuing through the evening – moving west to east across the area. Conditions will improve quickly behind the front, with clear skies and cooler, drier air settling in tonight. Lows will range from the upper 50s inland to low 70s in urban areas. The entire area has been placed in a Level 2 risk for severe weather per the SPC.

Friday and Saturday will feature ideal summer weather as high pressure builds in. Expect sunny skies, low humidity, and highs in the 80s, making for perfect conditions for Independence Day celebrations. Evening temperatures will fall into the 70s under clear skies—great for fireworks viewing.

Looking ahead to Sunday and early next week, the weather turns warmer and more humid as high pressure shifts offshore and southerly flow returns. A weak cold front may approach late Monday into Tuesday, bringing a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. While timing remains uncertain, the pattern suggests increasing humidity and unsettled conditions into midweek.

07/02/2025

Forecast Discussion 7/2:

A weakening cold front is slowly moving through the region this morning, bringing scattered light rain and drizzle, especially across southern and eastern areas. Rain will gradually taper off from west to east by midday as drier air filters in behind the front. No thunderstorms are expected today due to limited instability. Skies will become partly sunny this afternoon, though some cloud cover may linger along the eastern coast tonight. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid-60s to low 70s.

On Thursday, another cold front will approach from the northwest, bringing a mix of sun and clouds in the morning, followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. While instability may be limited, strong wind shear could support a few strong to severe storms, with damaging winds being the primary threat. Highs will be warmer, reaching the mid-80s to low 90s. Behind the front, high pressure builds in Thursday night, setting the stage for a beautiful Independence Day on Friday with sunny skies, low humidity, and highs in the low to mid 80s—ideal for outdoor celebrations and fireworks.

Looking ahead to the weekend, dry and seasonably warm weather continues through Saturday and most of Sunday. By late Sunday and into early next week, humidity will increase as a more unsettled pattern develops. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday through Wednesday, especially in northwestern areas, as a slow-moving trough lingers nearby.

07/01/2025

Forecast Discussion 7/1:

A warm and humid day is expected across the region, with lingering morning clouds from earlier showers giving way to hazy sunshine by late morning. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, with heat index values reaching the mid to upper 90s—possibly touching 100 briefly in some urban areas, though not widespread enough to warrant a heat advisory. The atmosphere will be very moisture-rich, making conditions feel especially tropical. During the late afternoon and evening, a pre-frontal trough is expected to trigger scattered strong thunderstorms. The main threat from these storms will be gusty winds and small hail. The SPC maintains a Level 1 (Marginal) Risk of severe weather. Thinking the timing of these is mainly after 5PM, with a general timing window of 5PM to 10PM for the region.

Overnight will remain warm and muggy, with temperatures staying in the 70s and high humidity. On Wednesday, clouds will linger in the morning, especially in eastern areas, with gradual clearing from west to east. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, mainly in the mid-80s, with a chance of a sea breeze along the coast. Humidity will remain elevated, and while an isolated afternoon shower or storm can't be ruled out, it’s not currently included in the forecast. Wednesday night will be partly cloudy and mild, with patchy fog possible in outlying areas.

Looking ahead, a weak front may bring a shower or storm Thursday, but the holiday weekend is shaping up nicely. High pressure builds in with mostly sunny skies and comfortable humidity levels expected Friday through Sunday, including a pleasant 4th of July.

06/30/2025

Forecast Discussion 6/30:

A warm and humid summer day is expected across the region, with dew points in the mid to upper 60s rising to near 70 in southern areas by evening due to a developing sea breeze. While instability will be present, a lack of strong triggers means most of the day should remain dry. There is the chance of an isolated shower or storm this evening and tonight as a warm front lifts northward. High moisture levels could lead to locally heavy rainfall overnight in any storms that do develop.

Tuesday starts muggy with lingering clouds and possible early showers. As skies clear, temperatures will rise into the 80s and low 90s, with heat indices reaching the mid to upper 90s. A cold front approaches late in the day, bringing a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially strong with gusty winds and heavy rain. The SPC currently shows much of the area in a Level 1 (Marginal) Severe risk. Storm chances continue into Tuesday night, tapering off by early Wednesday. Wednesday will be warm and less humid with sunshine returning by afternoon.

Looking ahead, a weak front may bring a shower or storm Thursday, but the holiday weekend is shaping up nicely. High pressure builds in with mostly sunny skies and comfortable humidity levels expected Friday through Sunday, including a pleasant 4th of July.

06/24/2025

Forecast Discussion 6/24:

BIG HEAT RETURNS AGAIN TODAY. The heat intensifies further as the upper ridge strengthens further and a westerly flow persists. While slightly lower dew points are possible, temperatures will be even hotter than Monday, with highs ranging from the upper 90s to around 102°F. Heat index values will again peak between 105 and 110°F. As a result, Heat EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT through Tuesday night.

Looking ahead, Wednesday may bring one more day of extreme heat, with about a 30% chance of heat indices reaching 105°F in the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior Southern Connecticut. Otherwise, heat indices between 95 and 100°F likely for most. A weakening cold front will approach from the north, bringing a marginal risk for flooding and severe thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday, supported by high moisture levels, instability, and increasingly favorable dynamics.

The heat wave is expected to break by Thursday as a more maritime air mass moves in, bringing slightly lower humidity and cooler temperatures. A weak frontal boundary will linger near the region through the weekend, keeping conditions unsettled with periodic showers and thunderstorms. Highs will trend downward into the 80s on Thursday, 70s on Friday, and rebound slightly into the low to mid-80s over the weekend, with a warmer trend continuing into early next week.

Impressive satellite this morning as the Western flank of a thunderstorm complex (MCS) held together nicely, bringing mo...
06/22/2025

Impressive satellite this morning as the Western flank of a thunderstorm complex (MCS) held together nicely, bringing more shower activity than expected. Skies will clear this afternoon with hot and STEAMY conditions. EXTREME HEAT WARNING remains in effect for much of CT

06/21/2025

An Extreme Heat Watch remains in effect for the area.

06/20/2025

Forecast Discussion 6/20: Happy Summer Solstice!

A cold front will move out of the area this morning, leaving behind mostly sunny skies and a breezy west wind, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph throughout the day. Today’s temperature will be warm, reaching the low to mid 80s.

Tonight will be partly to mostly cloudy, as clouds from a storm system to the west drift in. There is a slight chance of a passing shower, but not enough confidence to include it in the forecast. Saturday looks dry and a bit warmer, with highs near 90 in the city and mid to upper 80s elsewhere.

Sunday brings the start of a hot and humid stretch. Temperatures could soar into the upper 90s across the warmer climate zones such as the CT River Valley, with low to mid 90s elsewhere. Humidity will make it feel even hotter, with heat index values possibly reaching 105 in the hottest spots. There’s also a chance for a few strong storms, especially in southeastern Connecticut during the morning.

BIG HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. Monday and Tuesday are expected to be the hottest days, with highs in the mid-90s to nearly 100 and very humid conditions. Heat index values could again exceed 100 in many areas. By midweek, temperatures will gradually ease, and there may be a return of afternoon showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday and Thursday as the weather pattern begins to shift.

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY.... LATEST DISCUSSIONMorning satellite imagery shows patchy fog to go along with partly cl...
06/19/2025

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY.... LATEST DISCUSSION

Morning satellite imagery shows patchy fog to go along with partly cloudy skies across the region. Thursday will be hot and humid, with any remaining morning fog quickly clearing. Highs will reach the lower 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Dew points in the low to mid 70s will push heat indices into the mid to upper 90s, especially for Lower Hudson Valley and interior Connecticut. A cold front approaching from the west will bring a renewed threat for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late in the day.

Models this morning continue to indicate sufficient instability to go along with wind shear, pointing to the potential for strong to severe storms to work in. Given the environment, damaging wind gusts are the primary concern, with a lower risk for hail and even the potential for isolated tornadoes as the SPC has placed the much of the area in a 2% tornado risk. Most models now show storms developing mid to late afternoon along a pre-frontal trough, so decided to keep the timing window for storms 3PM to 9PM. Storms are expected to weaken as they move east into Connecticut and Rhode Island after sunset. The front clears the region Thursday night, ending the storm threat.

Friday brings slightly cooler and drier conditions as high pressure builds in. However, a significant pattern shift begins this weekend, with a strong upper ridge building over the eastern U.S. This will lead to a stretch of hot and humid weather starting Sunday and peaking early next week. Inland areas could see highs in the mid to upper 90s Monday through Wednesday, with heat indices potentially exceeding 100°F. The first heat wave of the season is likely for many areas, especially west of the Hudson River. Shower and storm chances may return mid to late next week if the ridge weakens.

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