CT Weather

08/02/2025

DISCUSSION 8/2:

Get outside and enjoy the day! We have a beautiful weekend of weather. High pressure will bring sunshine and pleasant temperatures for today and tomorrow. A light breeze out of the North or Northwest will linger for much of the day. Humidity will be low today but will start to increase next week. This dry stretch of weather will continue for much of the upcoming week. Temperatures will warm into the low or mid 80’s for Monday and Tuesday, but dewpoints will remain in the low 60’s. Partly cloudy skies move in Wednesday through Friday as a cold front approaches. This front will bring some moisture with precipitable water overhead increasing to 1.0-1.5”. A few late day showers will develop Thursday and last through evening. The weather will remain dry for Friday with continued temperatures in the low 80’s. Temperatures and humidity increase through next weekend. We look to make another run at 88 next Sunday or Monday.

08/01/2025

Forecast Discussion 8/1:

Healthy rainfall totals of 0.50 to 2.50 inches fell across the forecast area yesterday and last
night, with little to no flood concerns locally. As of this morning, the cold front that brought us
the rain will continue to drift south and the low will exit eastward, bringing an end to lingering
rain for most by mid-morning. Only a few showers may persist in far eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Skies will gradually clear through the day as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Friday will be noticeably cooler, with highs in the mid-70s and overnight
lows ranging from the mid-50s in outlying areas to the low 60s across the shoreline.

Looking ahead, high pressure and zonal flow aloft will bring dry and seasonable weather
through at least Tuesday. Lots of mostly sunny skies in the forecast for the weekend, with
highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. This looks ideal for outdoor plans. Shower chances
return from late Wednesday to Thursday as an upper trough from the Midwest approaches.

07/31/2025

RAIN UPDATE: Intense storms over New Jersey will start to push Northeast toward Connecticut. These have produced inundating rain rates to our South. Showers begin to intensify after 4 PM. Most of the activity has gone to our South with some activity also in the Litchfield Hills. The environment overhead supports the potential for flooding throughout all of the Tri-state. We’ll continue to monitor into this evening.

07/31/2025

Forecast Discussion 7/31:

A stalled front just south of the area and a developing low-pressure system will bring a period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, especially this afternoon into tonight. A Flood Watch is in effect from 2 PM Thursday to 2 PM Friday, with widespread rainfall totals of 1–3 inches and locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour in some areas, especially Western CT and the Hudson Valley, where temperature and humidity values are expected to be higher. The primary concern is for nuisance type flooding of urban and poor drainage areas, but the WPC also maintains a ‘Slight’ risk of Flash Flooding throughout the entire region. The bulk of the rainfall is expected this afternoon and this evening, with rainfall rates tapering off Thursday night into Friday morning.

Friday will remain cool and wet early in the day Friday, with lingering showers tapering off by
mid-morning in Western zones and early afternoon further east. Highs will only reach the
upper 60s to low 70s. On Friday night and Saturday, high pressure builds in from the Great
Lakes, bringing drier and clearer conditions for the weekend. Saturday will be pleasant with
highs in the middle to upper 70, and temperatures will gradually warm into the low 80s by Sunday and Monday under mostly sunny skies. The next chance of rain may arrive late
Tuesday into Wednesday as another front approaches.

07/28/2025

Forecast Discussion 7/28:

Wishing you a very happy Monday morning. We start the work week with hot and humid conditions. A strong upper-level ridge will expand over the Northeast, ushering in a stretch of hot and humid weather that will persist through at least Wednesday. Expecting surface highs in the lower to mid-90s on Monday and mid to upper 90s on Tuesday. Dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s will combine with the heat to produce heat index values between 95 and 104°F. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire region through Wednesday evening, with the exception of Litchfield County (for now). Along with the hot weather, we will also be monitoring wildfire smoke levels once again, with a chance for some haze through at least Monday night.

Tuesday is expected to be the hottest day of the stretch, with some areas potentially reaching 100°F. A few record highs may be challenged, especially in the urban heat islands. The heat will continue into Wednesday, with heat indices again climbing into the upper 90s to low 100s. By late Wednesday, a cold front will approach the region, bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Depending on the exact timing of the front, there is a potential for strong to severe storms. Please monitor this in subsequent forecast updates.

The front is expected to sag southward on Thursday, but a developing frontal wave may keep showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast through Thursday evening. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track of this wave, but current trends suggest it may linger close enough to the coast to prolong unsettled weather into Thursday night.

Relief arrives by Friday as a strong upper trough pushes the front well offshore and allows high pressure to build in from the Great Lakes. This will usher in a much cooler and drier air mass for the weekend. Highs will drop into the upper 70s to low 80s on Friday and Saturday, with low humidity and plenty of sunshine. Temperatures may tick up slightly on Sunday but will remain seasonable, making for a pleasant and comfortable end to the week.

07/25/2025

Connecticut is set for a brief but intense burst of heat and humidity on Friday, with heat headlines in effect across the state. Inland areas will see highs in the low to mid-90s, and with dew points in the low to mid-70s, heat index values will range from 100 to 105°F Heat Advisories cover much of the region today and are in effect through 8PM this evening.

In addition to the heat, a cold front will approach late Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The SPC has placed most of CT into a Level 2 Severe risk. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts, with a low but localized risk of flash flooding due to high moisture levels. Hail and tornado parameters appear low, so again would emphasize the main threat is gusty winds as line segments may organize into a quasi-broken line as they move NW to SE across the state.

By midnight Friday, the front will push southeast of the region, ushering in cooler and drier air for Saturday. Highs will still reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, but with lower humidity, it will feel much more comfortable. Saturday night will be seasonable, with increasing humidity as winds shift back to the south.

Looking ahead, another round of showers and storms is possible Sunday, followed by a return to hot and humid conditions early next week. Heat index values could climb back into the upper 90s to low 100s Monday and Tuesday, with relief likely midweek as another cold front moves through.

07/23/2025

Forecast Discussion 7/23:

Wednesday marks the beginning of a transition to warmer temperatures. High pressure shifts east today and upper level ridging builds, allowing temperatures and humidity to gradually increase. Highs will return to near-normal levels, reaching the mid to upper 80s across most of the state. Dew points will also begin to climb, edging into the lower 60s by late afternoon. While the day will still be mostly sunny and dry, the warming trend will be noticeable.

Wednesday night will be warmer than previous nights, with lows in the middle 60s to low 70s across Connecticut. With strong ridging overhead and temperatures aloft rising, highs on Thursday are expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s statewide, with some metro areas possibly touching the mid-90s. Heat index values will approach the mid to upper 90s, and a HEAT ADVISORY has been issued for Hartford, Tolland, and Windham Counties.

Highs on Friday will climb into the mid to upper 90s, and with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, heat index values could exceed 100°F in many areas—possibly reaching 105°F+ in the hottest spots. A cold front will approach late Friday, bringing a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday evening into Saturday morning. While the atmosphere will be moist and unstable, wind shear appears limited, which will likely reduce the risk of severe storms.

Saturday’s forecast remains somewhat uncertain, with temps depending on how much cloud cover lingers after the front. Temperatures will likely be slightly cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, but humidity will remain elevated, keeping heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. The front is expected to stall south of the region, which could lead to additional shower and thunderstorms from Sunday into Monday.

07/22/2025

Forecast Discussion 7/22:

The region continues to enjoy a stretch of dry and cooler weather as a refreshing Canadian airmass settles in. Dew points have dropped into the 50s, making the air feel much more comfortable compared to the recent humidity. Tuesday will continue the trend of pleasant weather, with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s—just a few degrees below normal for late July. The dry air will remain in place, keeping humidity levels low and making for ideal outdoor conditions. Tuesday night will be another clear and comfortable one, though slightly milder than the night before. Most areas will see lows in the 60s, with some upper 50s still possible in the interior valleys.

By Wednesday, the airmass begins to moderate as high pressure shifts east and upper-level heights rise. Temperatures will climb back to near-normal levels, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and a few urban spots possibly reaching 90°F. Dew points will also begin to rise, returning to the lower 60s by late in the day as a light southerly flow develops.

The heat continues to build Thursday and Friday, with heat index values potentially exceeding 95°F on Thursday and reaching or surpassing 100°F on Friday. Some areas may even see heat index values over 105°F, which will likely trigger heat advisories or warnings. A cold front is expected to approach late Friday, bringing the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. That front may stall near or just south of the region into the weekend, keeping the potential for additional storms in the forecast through Saturday and possibly Sunday.

07/21/2025

Forecast Discussion 7/21:

Connecticut is enjoying a refreshing break from the recent heat and humidity following the passage of a cold front. A second reinforcing front will move through Monday afternoon or evening, bringing in even cooler and drier air. Monday will feature mostly sunny skies, a gusty northwest breeze (15–25 mph), and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s—slightly below average for late July. Dew points will drop into the 40s and low 50s, making for a very comfortable day. Monday night will be clear and cool, with lows ranging from the upper 40s in the northwest hills to the low 60s in urban areas.

Tuesday continues the stretch of pleasant weather, with highs again in the upper 70s to low 80s and low humidity. Canadian high pressure will settle over the region, setting the stage for another cool night with widespread 50s and even some upper 40s in the usual cold spots.

By Wednesday, temperatures begin to climb as high pressure shifts offshore, and a ridge builds aloft. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s, and by Thursday and especially Friday, heat and humidity will return. Heat index values could approach or exceed 100°F on Thursday and may surpass 105°F in parts of the state on Friday, potentially prompting heat advisories or warnings. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday into Friday night as a cold front approaches. That front may stall near or just south of the region on Saturday, keeping the chance for additional showers and storms in the forecast.

07/21/2025

Updated blog on what to expect for the week!

After a stretch of heat, humidity, and storms, Connecticut is finally getting a well-deserved break. A cold front moved through the region Sunday, and a second reinforcing front is expected to pass through Monday afternoon or evening. Behind it, a cooler and much drier air mass will settle in, bring...

07/20/2025

**SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH** has been issued for all of Southern New England until 9PM.

07/18/2025

Forecast Discussion 7/18

A cold front has cleared the region, and high pressure is now building in from the Great Lakes. This will bring a noticeably drier and more comfortable air mass today, with dew: points falling into the 50s and 60s and highs near seasonal averages. Northwest winds will remain gusty into early afternoon (20–25 mph), gradually diminishing later in the day. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, with some high clouds streaming in from the west.

Tonight, clear skies and light winds will promote radiational cooling. Lows will range from the upper 50s and lower 60s inland to the lower 70s in urban and coastal areas. On Saturday, surface high pressure shifts offshore while a weak upper-level disturbance approaches. This will allow for increasing southerly flow and (once again) rising humidity. There will be a very slight chance of a shower or storm on Saturday across the Hudson Valley and Western CT, but most areas are expected to remain dry.

A warm front will lift through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing a return of higher humidity and a chance for showers and thunderstorms. With precipitable water values near 2 inches, any storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. Overnight lows will be warm and muggy, in the low to mid 70s.

Sunday will be warmer and more humid, with highs in the middle to upper 80s. A cold front is expected to move through late Sunday afternoon or evening, bringing another round of showers and storms, followed by a return to drier and more seasonable conditions Monday through Wednesday. By midweek, the front may stall to the south and potentially lift back north as a warm front late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing another increase in humidity and the potential for unsettled weather.