Deridder Weather Nerds

07/19/2025

Our disorganized system just kind of fell apart today. We had enough leftover cloudcover to limit instability, and that really cut down on local rain totals. There were some heavy totals this morning, and a flood warning continues for the Monroe area as of this writing. I don't expect much more rain out of this sytem, though we could see some scattered storms on Saturday.

If you didn't get enough rain, I expect another, very similar type event arriving around the same time next week. Once again, the Thursday to Saturday timeframe looks a bit unsettled, and there's a low chance for some sort of attempt at tropical development. I lean toward it not happening, but models are showing a low end tropical system as a reasonable possibility. For now, let's not worry, or alter our lives. We saw what happened on this last system. Plenty of rain for some, not much for others, and no Dexter. It did briefly get pretty darn wild here in Alexandria, and some other spots in the area. Tom and I will keep you updated on it all!

Oh, I added the GFS ensemble plot for next Thursday evening to show that a few members have weak low pressures moving westward through the northern Gulf. Again, any sort of development chance is low, and this system looks pretty similar to what we just saw.

07/17/2025

Rain moving in from the east! Expect widespread rain with embedded storms. A few pockets of rain has produced flash flooding across parts of Alexandria.

07/17/2025

Here is a look at the radar this morning.

07/17/2025

Models updated overnight and things are looking even better for us. The rainfall threat has decreased for our area. The low pressure system made landfall this morning in southeast Louisiana. It will continue to move west north west today before turning to the north. This system is just a surge of tropical moisture thats pretty much it. All in all we most likely will see minimal impacts across our area. Rainfall looks to remain between 0.5 and 2inches. If anything changes I’ll update everyone! Have a great day!

07/17/2025

Invest 93L is not much of a system. It has struggled all day today to gain any strength. This will be just a rain maker. I’ve attached some graphics below. Tomorrow we will start to see rain bands moving across are area as early as late morning into the afternoon. The bulk of the rain looks to arrive tomorrow evening. I’ll have more as we move through the day tomorrow.

07/15/2025

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93): An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move
westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night, eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development if the system remains offshore, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of
this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

07/14/2025

Storms are building up to our south. They are moving to the north.

07/14/2025

Update from the national weather service on what we can expect for this week in the way of weather.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon in response to an upper trough.

- An upper ridge will build over the region through midweek, lowering precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend.

- A surge of tropical moisture late in the week may result in multiple days of heavy rainfall and increased flood potential.

&&
SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

An upper low remains centered over the northwest gulf while a ridge is centered over Alabama. Between these systems a somewhat divergent patter is over the local area. At the surface a ridge is over the northeast gulf which is keeping the onshore flow in
place across LA and SE TX. A weak area of low pressure is east of FL and GA.

A few nocturnal showers or storms will continue to driven inland through the early morning hours around the periphery of the ridge. With the lack of ridge aloft, scattered afternoon storms can be anticipated, however with a slightly less coverage as the upper low shifts west and weakens. Temperatures today will be near the climate normal for the date.

A heat wave is anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper ridge over the southeast states shifts west. This will serve to decrease rain chances and increase temps a few degrees. Apparent temperatures across inland may reach the threshold of 108F both Tue and Wed afternoons, however guidance continues to show that this is spotty.
Trends will continue to be monitored.

&&
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The area of lower pressure east of Florida may be the main focus during the extended. The trough is forecast to move across Florida and the northern gulf through the short term then potentially in the
north central gulf coast around Thursday. At a minimum rain chances will increase for the local area as the slug of deep tropical moisture moves in then lingers into or perhaps through the coming
weekend. While guidance is a bit split on the eventual evolution of the low pressure area late in the week, guidance does agree that it may be a wet period with the potential for heavy rain.

07/14/2025

Here is the new AI models from Google. This shows a potential path of a tropical system later this week across the northern gulf. This is just a few models so the overall chance is pretty low at this point. Hopefully today we get an invest from the national hurricane center and we can get some spaghetti models to view.

07/14/2025

Sunrise over the tropical disturbance heading for the Gulf shows a disorganized area of storms. Development won’t happen in the short term due to the interaction with the Florida Peninsula. We should get an invest designation today which will give us our first spaghetti model plots.

07/14/2025