04/12/2026
⚠️ TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ⚠️
Here's what I'm watching for Tuesday, which appears to have a better chance of severe weather in Iowa (at the moment).
Morning storms Tuesday could leave behind clouds and rain, which can limit how much the atmosphere can recover later in the day. If we don’t get enough sunshine, temperatures won’t warm as much, and that can reduce how unstable things become. We saw this play out just a couple of weeks ago on Good Friday, where clouds and rain stuck around most of the day — and as a result, severe storms never developed despite the setup looking favorable ahead of time.
A “cap” of warm air may once again prevent storms from forming in some areas. This can actually be important — if the cap holds strong, it can limit the number of storms that develop, meaning any storm that does break through has less competition. That can allow storms to become more isolated and organized, which increases the chance for stronger storms, including tornado potential.
The exact location of the warm front will play a big role in where the strongest storms develop. Warm fronts are important because they act like a focus point for storm development.
Taking these uncertainties, the Storm Prediction Center notes that higher risk levels may be needed in later forecasts depending on how things evolve.
Stay tuned for updates. I'll be watching closely, as what happens the day before will play a big role in how Tuesday unfolds.
