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Today, Nov 30th , is the last day of the 2025 tropical storm season. A prediction of 13-15 for the season were average n...
12/01/2025

Today, Nov 30th , is the last day of the 2025 tropical storm season. A prediction of 13-15 for the season were average numbers. The 13 named storms/hurricanes we had was on the low end. Most curved North in the Atlantic, due to the position of the Bermuda high pressure area. Thank everyone for following along and pas the word.

Looking at the tropics...quiet. A reminder that the tropical season goes through Nov 30th. I don't see anything in the m...
11/03/2025

Looking at the tropics...quiet. A reminder that the tropical season goes through Nov 30th. I don't see anything in the models, but always watch.

Hurricane Melissa is emerging of the North Coast of Jamaica. Winds are 145mph with higher gust. Damaging winds, life thr...
10/28/2025

Hurricane Melissa is emerging of the North Coast of Jamaica. Winds are 145mph with higher gust. Damaging winds, life threatening Flash Flooding, and Storm Surge will continue thru the night in Jamaica and also Eastern Cuba. The last pic has the cone and warnings shown,

Hurricane Melissa has made landfall in Southwestern Jamaica, near New Hope. Winds are 185mph with gust to 210mph. Moveme...
10/28/2025

Hurricane Melissa has made landfall in Southwestern Jamaica, near New Hope. Winds are 185mph with gust to 210mph. Movement is NE at 9mph. The eye diameter is 12 miles wide. This dangerous and strong Cat 5 hurricane will move across Eastern Cuba overnight tonight and into the Bahamas on Wednesday.

Hurricane Melissa Update. The center of the extremely dangerous and life threatening hurricane is about 40 miles SE of N...
10/28/2025

Hurricane Melissa Update. The center of the extremely dangerous and life threatening hurricane is about 40 miles SE of Negril, Jamaica, moving NE at 9mph. Winds are 185 with gust to 210mph. The Cat % hurricane will make a landfall within several hours and the entire island of Jamaica will have Cat 5 conditions . Melissa will cross Jamaica today and Eastern Cuba tonight. This will remain a strong hurricane as it passes through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. This is the third strongest storm in Atlantic history and the strongest to move over Jamaica. Looking at the constant lightning around the eyewall, that indicates numerous tornados embedded within. The devastation is going to be catastrophic.

Just an FYI. Earlier this afternoon NOAA and USAF(R) hurricane Lockheed 3D Orion aircraft were on missions to investiga...
10/27/2025

Just an FYI. Earlier this afternoon NOAA and USAF(R) hurricane Lockheed 3D Orion aircraft were on missions to investigate and collect data within Hurricane Melissa, a Cat 5 hurricane. The NOAA aircraft encountered severe turbulence creating some damage to the plane. They immediately cancelled their mission and returned to Lakeland Linder airport. A reminder that the men and women put their lives on the line each time they fly through a hurricane. and a Cat 4 and 5 hurricane really bounces the plane around as well as those inside. Showing the planes complete track.

10/27/2025

Melissa Update; at 11AM the center of Cat % Hurricane Melissa is 145 miles South of Kingston, Jamaica. Winds are 170mph. Movement is meandering. The hurricane is forecast to move over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday and over Eastern Cuba on Tuesday night before moving off to the Northeast.

Tropical Update; Hurricane Melissa is a Cat 4 hurricane. the center is located 110 miles South of Kingston Jamaica movin...
10/26/2025

Tropical Update; Hurricane Melissa is a Cat 4 hurricane. the center is located 110 miles South of Kingston Jamaica moving West at 5mph. Winds are 140 mph. Life threatening flash flooding and mudslides will effect Jamaica, Haiti, and Eastern Cuba through Tuesday. This is a slow moving dangerous hurricane. Otherwise, mid-week an area of low pressure will develop again off the Carolina's Coast.. This will bring coastal hazards such as coastal flooding and high winds(30-40mph) as well as rip currents through the week ahead. This will move North and have coastal effects along the entire US East Coast.

Still watching Tropical Storm Melissa, as we will be for the coming days. Im showing the forecast track/cone that will b...
10/24/2025

Still watching Tropical Storm Melissa, as we will be for the coming days. Im showing the forecast track/cone that will be. Melissa is currrently about 200 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica. Its meandering around at 1-2 mph. Winds are 45mph. This will stay in the general area of Jamaica until Wednesday, when it will begin a NE track. Life threatening flooding and mudslides have and will occur in the Jamaica, Haiti, DR region.

Still watching Topical Strom Melissa, and the beat goes on. Looking at the NHC track/cone, it goes out through Tuesday a...
10/23/2025

Still watching Topical Strom Melissa, and the beat goes on. Looking at the NHC track/cone, it goes out through Tuesday and its still at/near Jamaica. The EURO model pic is Wednesday 8AM, still there but just starting to move NE on next Wed. Now these folks in Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic are getting hammered with winds, and rain causing flooding and mudslides for the next 5 days. No let up. Amazing. Various watches and warnings are posted for the area. Melissa is the only game in town right now. May have to start with...off the Carolina Coast again, but will hold off a few days.

Tropical Storm Melissa: the center is located about 300 miles South of Haiti moving West at 17mph. Winds are 50mph. A ti...
10/21/2025

Tropical Storm Melissa: the center is located about 300 miles South of Haiti moving West at 17mph. Winds are 50mph. A tight windfield with a 40 mile radius. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane later in the week. The EURO Model (shown) and the GFS totally differ on track and speed, hence the circle cone. The EURO has the storm/hurricane meandering around South of Haiti and Eastern Cuba until Monday. The moving off to the NE. The GFS has a stronger and Faster hurricane moving across Hispaniola on Saturday and NE out into the Atlantic. Again, hence the round forecast cone of uncertainty. That it is. Either way the Domican Republic, Haiti, and Eastern Cuba is going to see heavy rainfall in the next several days resulting in some flooding and landslides. Will watch this close. If it goes to far West before going NE Southeast Florida could see some tropical impacts. I don't think so , but an outside chance.

Catching up on the tropics. There is an area of disturbed weather West of the Windward Islands moving West at about 20mp...
10/20/2025

Catching up on the tropics. There is an area of disturbed weather West of the Windward Islands moving West at about 20mph. At this time this is a tropical wave. Identified as Invest 98L. Im showing both the EURO and GFS ensemble model tracks. This will develop and the next name is Michele. As always the GFS is bias to strength and speed. It has a more aggressive and faster storm formation and a North turn across Hispaniola. The EURO, more reasonable has a slower storm formation and a further West Northerly turn. The question in the forecast is this later in the week this storm is caught in between 2 areas of high pressure. If the high on the left(West) is more dominant the storm goes more Westerly. If the High on the right is dominant it curves North faster. Some members of each ensemble do have a further West Northerly turn. Something to watch for the days ahead. This will become a tropical storm by weeks end and possibly a hurricane in time. Something to watch.

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