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Tropical Storm Melissa: the center is located about 300 miles South of Haiti moving West at 17mph. Winds are 50mph. A ti...
10/21/2025

Tropical Storm Melissa: the center is located about 300 miles South of Haiti moving West at 17mph. Winds are 50mph. A tight windfield with a 40 mile radius. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane later in the week. The EURO Model (shown) and the GFS totally differ on track and speed, hence the circle cone. The EURO has the storm/hurricane meandering around South of Haiti and Eastern Cuba until Monday. The moving off to the NE. The GFS has a stronger and Faster hurricane moving across Hispaniola on Saturday and NE out into the Atlantic. Again, hence the round forecast cone of uncertainty. That it is. Either way the Domican Republic, Haiti, and Eastern Cuba is going to see heavy rainfall in the next several days resulting in some flooding and landslides. Will watch this close. If it goes to far West before going NE Southeast Florida could see some tropical impacts. I don't think so , but an outside chance.

Catching up on the tropics. There is an area of disturbed weather West of the Windward Islands moving West at about 20mp...
10/20/2025

Catching up on the tropics. There is an area of disturbed weather West of the Windward Islands moving West at about 20mph. At this time this is a tropical wave. Identified as Invest 98L. Im showing both the EURO and GFS ensemble model tracks. This will develop and the next name is Michele. As always the GFS is bias to strength and speed. It has a more aggressive and faster storm formation and a North turn across Hispaniola. The EURO, more reasonable has a slower storm formation and a further West Northerly turn. The question in the forecast is this later in the week this storm is caught in between 2 areas of high pressure. If the high on the left(West) is more dominant the storm goes more Westerly. If the High on the right is dominant it curves North faster. Some members of each ensemble do have a further West Northerly turn. Something to watch for the days ahead. This will become a tropical storm by weeks end and possibly a hurricane in time. Something to watch.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo was named today. Its located in the MId Atlantic where it will remain. Showing Lorenzo track/cone...
10/13/2025

Tropical Storm Lorenzo was named today. Its located in the MId Atlantic where it will remain. Showing Lorenzo track/cone and a wind map with Lorenzo and No Name Storm. The storm will begin to move NE away from the SE Coast overnight tonight.

from our companion page.
10/12/2025

from our companion page.

Trpocial Update. The center of Tropical Storm Jerry is approx 175 miles ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW a...
10/09/2025

Trpocial Update. The center of Tropical Storm Jerry is approx 175 miles ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 18mph. Winds are 65mph. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued(shown Below). The storm will effect the Islands tonight into Friday. Elsewhere, the area of Low Pressure off the SE Coast is still forecast to make up tomorrow and become a non-tropical type storm. The Coast of SC and NC will see heavy rain, winds gusting to 30-50mph along with minor coastal flooding. Scattered power outages will also occur. This should be treated like a Tropical Storm in your storm prep for the weekend.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

Looking at the tropics. Tropical Storm Jerry is approx 325 miles ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 20mph...
10/09/2025

Looking at the tropics. Tropical Storm Jerry is approx 325 miles ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 20mph. Winds are 65mph. The storm is forecast to move very near the Leewards tonight into Friday. A Tropical Storm watch is posted for that area(shown below). Also, the SC/NC/VA Coastal areas will be affected by a non-tropical low pressure area over the weekend. Heavy rain and winds 30-50mph. Scattered power outages and flooding will occur along and just inland of the Carolina's Folks along the Carolinas Coast treat this like a tropical storm. This will form on Friday and continue into Monday.. Fow your local weather info go to www.weather.gov

from our companion page
10/07/2025

from our companion page

Looking at the tropics. The red area highlighted is labeled as Invest 95L. This area will develop and become a named sto...
10/06/2025

Looking at the tropics. The red area highlighted is labeled as Invest 95L. This area will develop and become a named storm. Interest in the Northern Leeward Islands should monitor this for its track in several days. Looks likely to effect the Northern Leewards Friday. The models ensemble has a good future forecast with this curving Northward and staying in the Atlantic. The yellow highlighted area near the Yucatan is nothing. My big concern is a yet to be highlighted area at the Southeast Coast at the Carolinas. Area circled in blue in last pic. # different models on 2 different model runs today forecast a named tropical system making up Friday into Saturday at/along the Carolinas Coast. I never mention anything unless its verified. At this time this looks possible and very probable. Both Carolinas as well as Virginia need to be on guard for a developing tropical event this coming weekend. Just a big heads up.

Still watching the tropics. Looks like it did yesterday. The yellow area off the Florida SE Coast may become a non-tropi...
10/03/2025

Still watching the tropics. Looks like it did yesterday. The yellow area off the Florida SE Coast may become a non-tropical Low. Not going to amount to much, other than enhance Florida's rainfall over the weekend. The Tropical Wave coming off of Africa looks to make into a named storm by mid-week. The Leewards should pay close attention on that. At this time that system looks to turn North in the Atlantic. Probably will, but lets watch it.

Still watching the tropics. There are 2 areas highlighted in yellow. Firstly the one at Florida. I'm showing the EURO En...
10/02/2025

Still watching the tropics. There are 2 areas highlighted in yellow. Firstly the one at Florida. I'm showing the EURO Ensemble model tracks. Ive looked at 3 different models and don't see much with this. St best maybe a tropical depression, maybe. No worries with this at this time. Secondly, the area in the Atlantic. There will be a tropical wave come off the African Coast and does look to develop in the coming days. Showing the EURO model on this as well. The Leeward Islands need to watch this mid week, next week. After that time we will see which direction it goes. Just a heads up. It's still tropical storm season.

Still watching Tropical Storm Imelda. Even tho Imelda is forecast to turn sharply NE Tuesday, there is ample rainfall ou...
09/29/2025

Still watching Tropical Storm Imelda. Even tho Imelda is forecast to turn sharply NE Tuesday, there is ample rainfall out ahead of the storm. Shown on the radar pic. There are some advisories and watches out in the Carolins's. For your specific area go to www.weather.gov

Tropical Depression 9 has become Tropical Storm Imelda today. The canter is approx 350 miles SE of Cape Canaveral, Fl wi...
09/28/2025

Tropical Depression 9 has become Tropical Storm Imelda today. The canter is approx 350 miles SE of Cape Canaveral, Fl with winds of 40mph. Movement is North at 8mph. Tropical Storm Watch for Florida's East Coast has been discontinued. Imelda is forecast to become a Cat 1 hurricane and eventually turn NE away from the SE Coast. There is alot of rain ahead of this storm so the Eastern parts of SC and NC will see enhanced rainfall through Tuesday. At that time a front will come down and as it pushes Imelda away, it will usher in cooler weather for the Carolinas mid-week.

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