Northern Maryland Weather Forecasting

Northern Maryland Weather Forecasting This is a local weather service for the Carroll, Baltimore, Harford, and Cecil county areas. I grew up in Harford County, MD, specifically in Forest Hill.

For those of you who don't know me, my name is Maximilian (Max) Magness. I am currently an Atmospheric Scientist for CPP Wind Engineering and Air Quality Consultants out of Windsor, CO. Most of my work surrounds the statistics of wind affects on buildings and other structures. My love for weather and climate began as a young child, mainly due to me being afraid of thunderstorms. I graduated from N

orth Harford High School in 2015 and was part of the Agriculture Magnet Program. I went to Harford Community College for a year before transferring to Salisbury University. During my time at Salisbury University, I conducted multiple research projects on anything from tornadoes, to hail, to climate change, etc. I graduated with B.S. in Geography with tracks in both Atmospheric Science and GIS from Salisbury University in May 2019. I decided to apply to graduate schools my senior year and choose to go to Mississippi State University after much thought. While I was attending MSU, I was a teaching assistant for multiple classes, Meteorology Intern at MemphisWeather.net, and Graduate Assistant for the Mississippi State Climate Office. My thesis is on Synoptic-scale characterization of the High-Shear Low-CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) (HSLC) Tornado Outbreaks (TOs) in different regions of the United States. I graduated with my M.S. in Geosciences - Professional Meteorology/Climatology in August 2021 from Mississippi State University. Most of my research interests are in Severe Convective Storms (SCSs aka severe thunderstorms), although I love all things weather and climate. I created this page in December 2020 to provide local forecasts for Carroll, Baltimore, Harford, and Cecil Counties. I run this page in my free time, mostly for fun and to bring more awareness to how weather and climate affects everyday lives and activities. Posts are made at least three times a week, with many more during active weather patterns. I also do hyper local weather forecasts for outdoor events.

12/14/2025

Asking for snow totals!

Hey everyone, if possible can you all put pictures up of the snow with measurements of the depth?

It looks like quite a few got between 2-4", but some got between 5-6".

-Max

Looks like thunder snow was detected this morning around BWI. Anyone have any videos?-Max
12/14/2025

Looks like thunder snow was detected this morning around BWI.

Anyone have any videos?

-Max

5-Day Forecast:Today temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 20s under partly cloudy skies. If snow has...
12/14/2025

5-Day Forecast:

Today temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 20s under partly cloudy skies. If snow hasn't wrapped up, it should be shortly. Hopefully, my forecast has verified well, but I make these posts the night before I release them.

Temperatures also look to stay cold tomorrow with highs around 30 expected. The area will slowly start to warm-up during the week and by the end of the week, the area looks to hit 50 with some rain/storms probable to move through.

In the long term...if you saw my post from yesterday afternoon, temperatures are looking like they might end up above average around the week of Christmas.

-Max

Long term temperature shift?It's looking like some abnormally warm temperatures are set to return soon. The climate pred...
12/13/2025

Long term temperature shift?

It's looking like some abnormally warm temperatures are set to return soon.

The climate prediction center (CPC) is showing a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures between 12-19 and 12-23. The CPC is also showing a 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures between 12-21 and 12-27.

-Max

First and Final Snow Accumulation Map for December 13th-14th:Posted at 4:30pm on 12/13/2025So like I mentioned this morn...
12/13/2025

First and Final Snow Accumulation Map for December 13th-14th:

Posted at 4:30pm on 12/13/2025

So like I mentioned this morning there is a winter weather advisory across much of the region. A couple of counties in and around Philly have been updated to a winter storm warning.

Synopsis: A fast moving clipper is expected to move through late tonight and continue until tomorrow morning. While the moisture profile is looking decent, I'm not buying some high-res models spitting out 5-7" for the northern parts of Baltimore, Harford and Cecil counties. Maybe 5" is possible but 6"+ seems a little too much given the typical profile of a Clipper.

Timing: I'm expecting snowfall to start between 8pm-11pm tonight. 8pm start time would be more for Carroll County and 11pm start time would be more for Cecil County. A brief mix is possible but it will quickly switch to all snow within an hour or two. Snow is expected to continue until sometime between 5-8am.

Snowfall Totals: Generally, I'm thinking 2-4" with a few spots getting close to 5".

Carroll County:
Taneytown: 2-4”
Manchester: 3-5”
Westminster: 3-4”
Eldersburg: 2-4”

Baltimore County/City:
Hereford: 3-5”
Cockeysville: 3-5"
Reisterstown: 3-4”
Parkville: 3-4"
Dundalk: 2-4"
Baltimore City: 2-4”

Harford County:
Jarrettsville: 3-5”
Dublin: 3-5”
Bel Air: 3-4”
Joppa: 3-4”
Havre de Grace: 3-4”

Cecil County:
Rising Sun: 3-5”
Elkton: 3-5"

-Max

Weekend Snow Update (posted late on Saturday morning):A winter weather advisory is in effect due to the light to moderat...
12/13/2025

Weekend Snow Update (posted late on Saturday morning):

A winter weather advisory is in effect due to the light to moderate snow likely late tonight and through tomorrow morning.

Not much has changed in my forecast. Snow is very likely late tonight through Sunday morning. To get specific I think snow or a brief mix will start between 9-11pm, quickly switch to all snow if it's a mix, and continue until between 6-8am tomorrow morning.

I'm now thinking 2-4" for most in the area.

I will post my official snow map this afternoon.

-Max

Snow Update for very late on Saturday through Sunday morning:So, it's looking pretty likely there will be accumulating s...
12/12/2025

Snow Update for very late on Saturday through Sunday morning:

So, it's looking pretty likely there will be accumulating snow very late on Saturday through Sunday morning.

My thinking is that snow will start sometime between 9-11pm Saturday night and continue until between 6-8am on Sunday morning.

I think most in the region will see 1-3" of snow. Some isolated areas could see up to 4".

I think I'll put out a snow map tomorrow afternoon/evening.

-Max

Snow Updates:Friday/Friday Night: Models have converged quite a bit and I feel safe saying the chance for snow is now le...
12/11/2025

Snow Updates:

Friday/Friday Night: Models have converged quite a bit and I feel safe saying the chance for snow is now less than 20%. If snow does fall...like I previously said, it won't amount to anything.

Saturday Morning: a few models have been picking up on a small potential for light snow showers Saturday morning...maybe 10-20% chance right now. 20% for close to the PA line and more like 10% for those in the southern parts of counties.

Very Late Saturday through Sunday Morning: This event is a bit more interesting. While model solutions are still quite variable, right now it safe to say snow is probable to likely. Just how much is a bit up in the air, but I attached photos of the forecast from NWS Baltimore/Washington and a handful of other models. I have mentioned in the past I like the usage of Ensembles, so all four of the models below are from ensembles.

What I'm thinking right now is snow will probably start around midnight on Sunday or a little after and continue until sometime between 6-9am Sunday morning. I'm still not sold on some models pointing towards 3-5". I think somewhere between C-3" is realistic with this clipper.

I might put out a snow map on Saturday afternoon/evening, but we'll see how things shake out. Models can still trend towards more snow, or to little to no snow.

-Max

5-Day Forecast:Today, temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 30s under partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow evening/ov...
12/11/2025

5-Day Forecast:

Today, temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 30s under partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow evening/overnight a little clipper is expected to move through. I kept snow chances between 30-40% because this clipper looks dry. If snow falls it will be flurries/light and will probably amount to little to no snow accumulation.

I'm also keeping an eye on another clipper system for late Saturday evening through Sunday morning. This clipper looks a little more promising in the moisture department, but model solutions are still all over the place. We could get 0" or we could get 3", but I will wait longer to start talking actual snow accumulation.

Another note, pretty cold these five days. Bundle up if going anywhere. It's been colder in Maryland than where I live in Colorado.

-Max

Winter Weather Update through Sunday:Today some of you have already seen a bit or rain or freezing rain this morning. It...
12/10/2025

Winter Weather Update through Sunday:

Today some of you have already seen a bit or rain or freezing rain this morning. It looks like quite a few in Carroll County, Baltimore County, Baltimore City, Harford County, and Cecil County are currently seeing/have just seen some cold rain. Some more rain is probable this afternoon/evening (60-70% chance).

The weather events from today and what could happen on Friday and Sunday are usually called Alberta Clippers. A Clippers is a fast-moving low pressure systems that originate from the Alberta, Canada area. Clippers usually move from NW-SE or W-E brining light precipitation to the region it affects. Since Clippers are most common in the winter, they often have winter precipitation such as snow. Clippers are very tough to forecast because they often lack the moisture needed to produce moderate to heavy snow, and can also result in no precipitation at all if the atmosphere is too dry.

Friday/Friday Night Snow: This clipper is looking very dry so I'm thinking there will be little to no snow across the region. If snow does reach the ground it will likely be flurries and/or light snow between the late morning and evening hours. I think realistically, trace amount of snow is what's going to happen. Overall, I'm thinking about a 30-40% chance of snow. I will of course monitor model data as it comes in.

Sunday Morning Potential Snow: The next clippers looks to have a bit more moisture and temperatures will....again be cold. Snow looks possible to probable (45-55% chance) from midnight on Sunday through the late morning hours. I'm still not sold on the precipitation aspect of things given the typical moisture profile of clippers, but I will of course continue to monitor. Yes, some models are spitting out up to 3" of snow (some also showing 0"), but it's too far out to do anything with totals in my opinion.

-Max

5-Day Forecast:Today temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 30s under partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow, a...
12/09/2025

5-Day Forecast:

Today temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 30s under partly cloudy skies.

Tomorrow, a disturbance with a cold front is expected to move across the area. This disturbance could bring some precipitation that might start as a mix and quickly switch to a cold rain. Right now, some parts of the atmosphere look dry on Wednesday, so I'm keeping my chances between 40-50%.

I'm also tracking a potential disturbance that could bring snow Friday night into early Saturday morning. Since models are still all over the place about this one, I kept snow chances between 30-40% for now. This disturbance doesn't look like anything crazy, so not I'm expecting any large impacts to driving.

-Max

You guys have probably seen temperatures for the middle of the month (12/13 to 12/17) are expected to be below normal. S...
12/08/2025

You guys have probably seen temperatures for the middle of the month (12/13 to 12/17) are expected to be below normal.

So, yeah it looks like it'll stay chilly...overall.

-Max

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