15/07/2025
TROPICAL UPDATE: The NHC has bumped up the odds for development this evening to 40% on Invest 93L (an area we are investigating). This has a chance to become a Tropical Depression or even Tropical Storm as it heads west. Here are my thoughts as of Monday evening:
1. Invest 93L has been over-performing most of Monday while showing signs of life. It's still, however, battling some shear and dry air on the northern side.
2. There is a brief window tonight into Tuesday morning before heading into Florida where it could develop into a weak tropical system. Better chance remains in the Gulf after it moves away from the Florida Peninsula. Next name is .
3. While in the Gulf, track is key for what this becomes or doesn't become. For example, if it rides more north along the Gulf Coast, it would spend less time over water and would be weaker...potentially not even developing. If it heads more south, it would spend more time over warm water and become stronger...making landfall also more west from Alabama to Louisiana. To what intensity? Too early to tell, let's see what the system looks like after it leaves Florida.
4. For Southwest Florida, this is basically a rainmaker for us. The extra tropical moisture will increase our rain chances and the amount of localized storms we see across the area Tuesday through Thursday. Some street flooding is possible, but nothing widespread. Rainfall totals 1 - 3" on average through Friday, isolated 3"+.
5. Any impacts to the northern Gulf Coast would be mainly Thursday into Friday.
I'll keep giving you daily updates that you can always trust without the hype, just the facts. Make sure to tune into WINK News for the latest.
- Matt Devitt WINK Weather
