Hill Country Weather

05/02/2025

⚠️ ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY (5/2)

*** If you thought yesterday was a busy weather day, today may be even busier...

📄 Focus Points:
- Cold front approaching brings widespread severe weather and heavy rain today into tonight.
- Level 2-3 (out of 5) severe risk across all areas.
- Primary threats: Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts.
- Secondary concerns: Heavy rainfall with flooding potential and isolated tornadoes.

🕜 Timing and Impacts:

Showers and thunderstorms will increase throughout today as the cold front moves through the region. The most intense storm activity is expected to coincide with peak heating, when CAPE (storm energy) values could reach 4000 J/Kg with significant wind shear (allows for strong rotating storms). This combination may produce more damaging wind reports than typically seen in early May.

Severe weather is expected to impact the high-population areas along the I-35 corridor and throughout the Texas Hill Country during the afternoon and evening hours. The strongest activity should begin to wane between midnight and 2 AM.

☔ Rainfall Expectations:

Heavy downpours could produce localized rainfall totals of 2-3 inches where storm training occurs, with widespread 1-inch totals expected across more than half the area. The I-35 corridor and Hill Country regions are expected to receive significant rainfall, though approximately 20% of the region may see less than 1/4 inch.

🌡️ Temperature Outlook:

Today's high temperatures will range from the upper 70s in the southern Texas Hill Country to the lower 90s in the southern Rio Grande Plains.

🔭 Following the frontal passage, expect a pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures. Those planning outdoor activities in the Hill Country can look forward to high temperatures in the low to mid 70s, ideal for hiking and other outdoor activities.

04/30/2025

Eyes to the sky! More storms possible.

Low to medium confidence of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the local area late this afternoon into this evening. Main threats are large hail and damaging winds though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Stay sky aware and have a way to receive warnings.

04/28/2025

Here's a look at projected 24-hr rain totals from a hi-res model (NAM Nest). It paints a pretty clear picture of what we can expect today. Spotty showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There is a very small risk they could reach severe status.

Better chances for rain will be Tuesday night into Wednesday night and again Friday into Saturday!

04/25/2025

⛅ High pressure begins to build in today leaving dry weather for the weekend.

⛈️ Before it does so, we'll see just one more round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon! ⛈️

☔ Rain chances make a comeback next week!

04/23/2025

[RADAR 2:15 AM] A strong line of thunderstorms is moving through at this overnight hour. The remainder of the morning should be quiet, but the chance for more thunderstorms still continues this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon!

04/22/2025

SCATTERED STORMS TODAY, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT

🟢 Very humid and warm conditions continue across South-Central Texas with rain chances returning (20-60%). There's a Level 1-2 (out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms late today into tonight, mainly for western to central Hill Country.

⛈️ Isolated to scattered storms may develop this afternoon. Capping could limit how many storms pop up. More organized storms are likely to develop in West Texas and Mexico later today, potentially crossing the Rio Grande around sunset.

💨 A tight regional storm system could form and move southeast into our area overnight. With MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and bulk shear around 35-40 knots, conditions support severe storms with large hail and damaging winds as primary threats. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning are also possible.

☔ Wednesday's rain chances (30-60%) depend on how storms evolve tonight.

🌡️ Highs today will reach mid-upper 80s. Lows tonight will only drop to mid-60s to near 70°.

☀️ Rain chances continue through Friday before high pressure takes over our weather pattern for the weekend. This will lead to drier conditions and warming temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s by Sunday.

04/20/2025

[RADAR 7:50AM] Thunderstorms have ended in much of the Texas Hill Country and over the next 1-2 hours should exit the I-35 Corridor. The rest of your Easter Sunday looks good to go for any plans you have made! 🥚🐰

04/19/2025

Supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail (2.00-3.50 in) and 65-80 MPH winds likely over portions of western and central Texas through this evening. This may scrape some of the northern Hill Country, but will miss most, later this afternoon. However, an additional line of thunderstorms may develop behind it and push through most of the Texas Hill Country late this evening into tonight, bringing damaging wind gusts and the risk for large hail.

04/18/2025

⚠️ SEVERE STORM THREAT FRI - SAT NIGHT:

I've got both good and bad news for your Easter weekend.

A large storm system will eject off of the Rockies and into the Great Plains this afternoon. It will bring a dryline and following cold front through our area late today into tomorrow night, bringing with it the risk for severe weather.

⚡ FRIDAY
I expect only isolated severe storms today, mainly for northern areas of the Texas Hill Country. A dryline could help pop off some of these storms. Instability and wind shear look good, but the cap is strong. This means it will be difficult for storms to develop, leaving only isolated chances today.

⛈️ SATURDAY
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are likely to develop Saturday into Saturday night. These will bring with them the risk of LARGE HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS. Brief heavy downpours could also lead to isolated minor flooding issues.

⛅ EASTER SUNDAY
While a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may be leftover Easter morning, mainly to the east, but should clear by midday and leave a dry afternoon.

Overall, it looks like a stormy Saturday. Your Easter egg hunts may be in jeopardy Sunday morning, but if you wait long enough, its looking like a nice partly sunny Easter afternoon.

04/15/2025

A steady NE flow with a front lingering in the region will keep highs in the upper-70s to lower-80s today. We'll also see plenty of sunshine. I don't mind wind, so with that aside, its overall looking like a fantastic day. Still no rain expected for the next several days, but it looks like a strong dryline and cold front could bring showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast (with even a severe thunderstorm risk) this weekend!

04/12/2025

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SAT-SUN 🔥

Breezy, dry, and warm weather this weekend will create another risk for critical fire conditions. Today it looks like the windiest weather will occur over western portions of the Texas Hill Country while Sunday will see more widespread wind created by a strong low-level jet. We're looking at sustained winds 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph with highs in the 80s and 90s. Our one saving grace is not everyone will drop below 20% relative humidity, particularly along the I-35 Corridor, but this still does not negate the risk of rapid fire spread tiven drought conditions have not improved much.

04/11/2025

Looks like today is gonna be another warm and dry day. We will have a weak front in the area that could produce an isolated shower, but chances look pretty low of that occurring. Could see a few clouds through the day from it, though. Otherwise, highs look to be in the mid-80s to low-90s.