06/01/2025
Alright let’s talk about it! A G4 solar storm watch is in effect. This is considered a severe geomagnetic storm, and would bring the northern lights overhead for ALL of Michigan. That is the POTENTIAL we have tonight!
But why did we capitalize the word potential? Aurora is never a guarantee. Here’s a flow chart of what we need to happen today.
1. The solar storm needs to arrive. We track this using space satellites. Sometimes, incoming solar storms that we expect to impact earth, never do. Other times, they arrive earlier or later than forecast. This is common in space weather. But bottom line, we need to see this solar storm arrive first before getting too excited. EDIT: The solar storm has arrived. We need it to hold out until tonight now!
2. The solar storm needs to be geoeffective. This means the north/south field of the aurora NEEDS to be pointed south to allow aurora to push into Michigan. This is called the “BZ”. If the BZ is not south, aurora chances are much, much lower.
3. The solar storm needs to be as strong as predicted. You thought weather forecasts were wrong a lot? Try forecasting space weather. While some data can help pinpoint how strong an incoming solar storm is, often times, it’s a “best guess” situation. For aurora to be overhead for all of Michigan, a G3 or G4 level storm will suffice. G2 will give the entire state chances to see it, but mainly on the northern horizon.
4. Clear skies! Tonight, clear skies are forecasted. But wildfire smoke is expected to linger which will cause a hazy look to your skies. This is especially true for western Michigan. - EASTERN MICHIGAN has the CLEAREST skies with LITTLE TO NO SMOKE.
Helpful tips:
•Be patient. Aurora doesn’t follow a timetable. We will post here on the page when to go look!
•Use your phone camera on night mode to photograph them
•Let your eyes adjust to the darkness for at least 15 minutes
•Get away from light pollution as best as you can
Good luck to all! More updates to follow!
