12/19/2025
Everyone's waiting for the perfect time to buy. Spoiler: It doesn't exist. And the wait is costing you.
Scenario 1: You wait for lower rates
Rates drop from 7% to 5.5% (your dream!)
What actually happens:
Every other buyer floods the market
That $450k house now has 8 offers
Seller gets $485k after bidding war
You're competing with 7 other buyers
You lost the house AND paid more
Your "savings" from lower rates?
Eaten by the $35k price increase.
Scenario 2: Rates stay high
You buy now at 7% on a $450k house
What actually happens:
Monthly payment: $2,995
You have negotiating power (less competition)
Seller accepts $440k (market's slower)
You close without drama
When rates drop in 2 years:
You refinance to 5.5%
New payment: $2,497
You saved $498/month
AND you bought at lower price
AND you have 2 years of equity
The math nobody's doing:
Rent: $2,200/month × 24 months = $52,800 (gone forever)
House appreciates 3%/year = $27,540 (you missed)
Equity from payments = $18,000 (you missed)
Total cost of waiting: $98,340
Buying now scenario:
Higher payment for 24 months = extra $9,000
Then refinance and save
But you gained $27,540 in appreciation
Plus $18,000 in equity
Net gain: $36,540
Waiting cost you $134,880.
The truth about timing the market:
Best case: You wait, rates drop, you save some money on interest
Likely case: You wait, rates drop, prices spike, you pay more overall
Worst case: You wait years, miss equity gains, pay $100k+ in rent
Actual best case: Buy when you're ready, refinance when rates drop
You can refinance your rate.
You can't refinance your purchase price.
Or the equity you missed.
Or the rent you paid.
The "perfect time" is a myth.
