02/22/2025
The Weather History of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and Its Future Under Climate Change: Implications for Farming and Adaptation Strategies
BY: Joshua Jaxson
Introduction
The Upper Peninsula of Michigan, hemmed by Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron, boasts a weather history as rugged as its terrain. Its humid continental climate delivers punishing winters, heavy lake-effect snowfalls, and fleeting summers, all sculpted by the moderating yet snow-enhancing Great Lakes. Over a century of records reveals a region of extremes, from bone-chilling cold to rare heat waves, with snowfall totals that dwarf much of the United States. As climate change accelerates, these patterns face transformation, threatening to reshape temperature, precipitation, and extreme events. This paper explores the U.P.’s recorded weather history in greater detail, projects future shifts based on climate models, examines their effects on agriculture, and proposes preparation strategies for its residents to navigate these long-term changes.
Historical Weather Patterns in the Upper Peninsula
The U.P.’s weather history, documented since the late 19th century, paints a portrait of resilience against harsh conditions. Temperature records showcase its extremes. An unverified report from February 1875 near Sault Ste. Marie cites -55°F, though official records peak at -51°F in Vanderbilt on February 9, 1934, during a Midwest cold wave. January 1912 stands as the coldest month in Watersmeet, averaging -7.2°F, while Ironwood hit a daytime high of -21°F on January 17, 1982. Summers, though brief, could sizzle—Marquette reached 105°F on July 29, 1917, and Mio hit 112°F on July 13, 1936, the state’s all-time high, though the U.P.’s lake-moderated climate typically caps such peaks.
Snowfall defines the U.P.’s winters, fueled by Lake Superior’s lake-effect machine. Keweenaw Peninsula averages over 180 inches annually, with a record seasonal total of 390.2 inches at Delaware in 1978–1979. The Upper Michigan Blizzard of 1938 buried the region under nearly a meter of snow, with drifts swallowing utility poles, while a late-season storm on May 1, 2023, dumped 27 inches in Herman—the greatest one-day May snowfall east of the Mississippi. Marquette Airport’s snow depth peaked at 80 inches on February 16, 1971, and Houghton County saw 354 inches in the 1958–1959 season. Rainfall has left marks too: the 1929 Labor Day storm brought 8.5 inches to Munising, causing widespread flooding, and June 17, 2018, saw 7 inches in Houghton County, triggering landslides and $100 million in damages.
Extreme events punctuate this history. Tornadoes are anomalies—the sole recorded twister in Marquette on August 20, 1888, uprooted trees but spared lives—while temperature swings stun. On April 18, 1897, Easter Sunday in Marquette plummeted from 60°F to 25°F in hours. Beyond snow and cold, the U.P.’s weather history holds diverse lessons. The 1930s drought, with statewide precipitation at a mere 22.7 inches in 1930, parched forests and fields, hinting at rare dry spells that could return. The Great Lakes Storm of 1913, dubbed the ‘White Hurricane,’ battered the U.P. with 80 mph winds and over 2 feet of snow, sinking 12 ships and killing over 250, while the 1940 Armistice Day Blizzard blindsided the region with a 50°F drop in hours, 20 inches of snow, and 60 mph winds, stranding many and killing dozens—a lesson in the perils of sudden weather swings. A 1989 derecho unleashed 90 mph winds across the U.P., felling trees and leaving thousands without power for days, a rare jolt exposing windstorm risks. Since the 1970s, Lake Superior’s ice cover has shrunk from 60–80% to under 20% in mild winters, boosting early snow but signaling a warmer future. These events underscore the U.P.’s vulnerability to rapid shifts, wind, and drought—risks residents must heed as climate patterns evolve. Long-term trends reveal a warming of nearly 3°F since 1900, with wetter periods in the early 1950s, early 1990s, and 2010s, and a 31% rise in heavy precipitation events across the Midwest over the past 50 years.
Future Climate Projections for the Upper Peninsula
Climate models, including the RCP8.5 high-emissions scenario from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA), project a warming U.P. by 3°F to 12°F above historical averages by 2100, with winters losing their deepest chills. Northern areas may see 10–20 fewer days below 20°F by mid-century, shortening the frost season by up to a month. Summers could warm modestly, adding 5–10 days above 90°F, though lake breezes will temper extremes compared to southern Michigan’s projected 15–30 days above 95°F.
Precipitation shifts are complex. Winter precipitation may rise over 15% by 2050, amplifying lake-effect snow in the near term as warmer lake waters (up 2°F since 1980) delay freezing—potentially pushing seasonal totals past 200 inches in snowbelts. By century’s end, however, snow could decline as temperatures hover near freezing, converting flakes to rain. Heavy rainfall events, already intensifying, may jump 25% to 500% in frequency for 100-year floods between 2040 and 2060, per GLISA models, risking more events like 2018’s Houghton deluge. Spring and fall precipitation could increase 10–20%, extending wet spells.
Extreme weather may escalate subtly. Coastal storms, tied to volatile Great Lakes levels (lows in 1999–2014, highs post-2014), could strengthen, with wind gusts exceeding 60 mph more often, eroding shores. Heat waves, while rare, may double in frequency, and drought risk could rise in late summer as evaporation outpaces rainfall.
Impacts on Farming in the Upper Peninsula
Agriculture in the U.P., though limited by short growing seasons (90–120 days) and rocky soils, supports hay, potatoes, small grains, and niche crops like cherries and apples. Historical weather suited cool-season crops, but climate shifts will challenge this balance.
Temperature Changes: A longer growing season—potentially extending to 130–150 days by 2050—could enable new crops like corn or soybeans, rare in the U.P. today. However, warmer winters may disrupt vernalization for crops like winter wheat, reducing yields, and increase pest survival, such as potato beetles, historically curbed by harsh cold. Summer heat spikes above 90°F could stress livestock, cutting milk production in the region’s small dairy sector.
Precipitation Shifts: Increased winter and spring moisture may waterlog fields, delaying planting and eroding thin topsoil. Lake-effect snow’s persistence could bury pastures into late spring, while its eventual decline might dry soils if rain doesn’t compensate. Heavy rain events threaten potato crops, prone to rot in saturated conditions, and flood low-lying farms, as seen in 2018.
Extreme Events: Stronger storms and erratic freezes could damage orchards—cherries, a $5 million industry, face bud-kill risks from false springs, as in 2012’s statewide $200 million loss. Drought, though less frequent than floods, could strain hay production, critical for livestock, especially if summer rainfall dips.
Opportunities: Warmer conditions might boost yields for heat-tolerant varieties, and extended seasons could support diversified farming, like berries or greenhouse vegetables.
Preparation Strategies for Long-Term Climate Changes
The U.P.’s residents, farmers, and governments must proactively adapt to these shifts to safeguard livelihoods and communities. Here are targeted strategies:
For Residents: Homeowners should elevate properties in flood-prone areas, install sump pumps, and maintain drainage systems, learning from 2018’s Houghton flooding. Insulating homes for warmer summers and milder winters can cut energy costs, while stockpiling emergency supplies—water, food, generators—prepares for intensified storms or late-season snow, as seen in 1940’s Armistice Day chaos. Reinforcing homes and power lines against wind, recalling the 1989 derecho, builds resilience. Residents should also plant native, drought-tolerant species and store water, mindful of the 1930s dry spell, as summer evaporation may rise. Community networks can share resources, like snow-clearing equipment, as snow patterns shift.
For Farmers: Diversifying crops to include heat-tolerant varieties (e.g., sorghum, certain berries) leverages longer seasons, while cover crops and no-till practices protect soil from erosion during heavy rains. Installing tile drainage mitigates waterlogging, and raised beds can shield potatoes from rot. Orchard growers should plant frost-resistant cultivars and use windbreaks or heaters to guard against false springs. Livestock farmers can improve barn ventilation for heat waves and secure hay reserves against drought or late snow. Monitoring Lake Superior’s ice decline can guide snow management and flood planning. Joining co-ops or seeking state grants can offset costs, vital for the 70% of U.P. farms earning under $50,000 yearly.
For Local Governments: Updating infrastructure is critical—reinforce roads and bridges against floods, as 2018 damages showed, and expand stormwater systems in towns like Marquette or Houghton. Zoning should limit development in floodplains, and shoreline protections (e.g., riprap, vegetation) can curb erosion from stronger storms, echoing 1913’s ‘White Hurricane.’ Promoting renewable energy reduces emissions locally, while public education—workshops on flood prep or crop adaptation—builds resilience. Tourism boards can shift marketing from snow-centric to year-round attractions, like hiking or fall foliage, as winters soften.
Collaborative Efforts: Regional partnerships with universities (e.g., Michigan Tech) can refine microclimate data and test adaptive crops. Federal aid, like FEMA grants, could fund resilient infrastructure, while state programs might subsidize farmers transitioning to new practices. Community land trusts can preserve farmland as soils and seasons change.
These steps balance immediate needs with long-term foresight, leveraging the U.P.’s tight-knit spirit and natural assets to weather an evolving climate.
Conclusion
The Upper Peninsula’s weather history is a saga of cold extremes, towering snowfalls, and fleeting warmth, etched by the Great Lakes’ influence. Climate change heralds a warmer, wetter future, with snow waning, rains surging, and extremes sharpening—reshaping a region long defined by winter’s grip. For farming, this brings risks—flooded fields, pest pressures, orchard losses—but also chances for new crops and longer seasons. Proactive preparation, from fortified homes to resilient agriculture and robust infrastructure, can ensure the U.P. thrives amid uncertainty. Further research should refine local forecasts and pilot adaptive measures, securing this northern frontier’s future in a warming world.
Joshua Jaxson
Written from the snowy shores of the U.P., February 21, 2025
What’s your take on the U.P.’s weather future? Let me know below!
