09/25/2025
One year ago today, the first cone of Hurricane Helene was released by the National Hurricane Center, with North Carolina within the 5-day cone. Even 5 days out, I was already becoming concerned. It feels like just yesterday, so much progress has been made across Western North Carolina, with much more still to go! Western North Carolina is open for business in many spots now. Be sure to visit and support their recovery!! Western North Carolina Strong, we won't forget!
Here are some examples of what I was messaging, even 5 days out, and each day became increasingly concerned.
"North Carolina, well, most models right now turn the system northwest-west. This would send the circulation into the Tennessee Valley. Still on this forecast track NC would see impacts. Several inches of rain could be possible in the mountains, which could lead to Flash Flooding and parts of the Piedmont, while Eastern/Coastal NC don’t look like they’ll see much rain on this track. There is the potential that a Tornado threat could be added to this threat on Friday. All of this could fluctuate with track changes. So, bottom Line, we should monitor the forecast. I’ll be fine-tuning the forecast as we go through the week; if we see anything, it’ll be Friday into Saturday this week. Be prepared for heavy rainfall across Western NC and Flash Flooding; small shifts in the track could shift heavier rainfall, but right now, the heaviest rainfall will be west of Raleigh, and several inches would be likely on the current forecast. Just because your location is not on the forecast track does not mean you won’t see impacts; this system will be very large. I’ll urge everyone across the state to stay aware of the forecast over the next 84 hours, as I expect some track shifts here and there. This is why I don't want to fully put out maps of statewide impacts since there is no reason to change it 5,000 times; just trying to lay it out how I see it right now. The bottom line is just to be aware, especially for heavy rainfall, that the most concerning areas right now appear to be Western NC"