09/19/2026
TOURNAMENT TOWN MATH - PART I... How Greensboro turned $97.5 million into $553.5 million
Greensboro is a wholesome, mostly awesome little town…
We're polite, hospitable, we trust institutions, we've got that Southern charm, and an authentic local culture that rivals any, anywhere.
But we're also an easy mark.
A little like the crow in Aesop's fable, we're awfully susceptible to flattery… even when we're the ones paying for it.
The pitch always sounds the same: Momentum, exciting, couldn't be more thrilled, transformative, a real game-changer... did I mention super excited?
Throw in a giant economic-impact number, a couple of success stories, dinner at Ruth's Chris… and we become a sure thing... we put out.
And when something gets complicated, Greensboro has another habit: outsource the thinking.
Bring in the "experts." Let them walk everybody through it. Put the charts on the screen, nod a lot and when it's all done... treat the PowerPoint like scripture.
Somewhere in the fog of the courtship, we tend to ignore one detail: the "expert" quite often works for somebody with a stake in the answer.
Remember Boom Supersonic? NC Commerce's own announcement put the number at $32.3 billion in projected economic impact over 20 years.
We got very excited about that exciting, transformative, game-changing opportunity... excited enough that public money helped support it.
Sports tourism is the next giant number worth a closer look. So let's do something terribly unfashionable around here and check the math.
Let's start with the obvious: sports tourism can genuinely be good for Greensboro.
When we were regularly hosting the ACC Men's Basketball Tournament, hotels filled up, restaurants and bars got slammed, strip clubs were packed and dancers flew in from surrounding states for the occasion.
People came, stayed and spent money.
That was sports tourism you could actually see.
Today, one thing's still certain: sports tourism is good for the people directly in the sports-tourism business.
Tournaments fill "heads in beds" and events generate business for venue operators, promoters, select restaurants and preferred bars.
Cool... that's the good part.
What happens after that?
How much public money did it take to get them here?
How much came back to taxpayers?
"Good for hotels" and "good for Greensboro taxpayers" are not automatically the same fact.
So I went looking... again.
I read the actual reports and man... the math gets creative... possibly the one area where Greensboro consistently shows real imagination.
Nothing illustrates this practice better than the downtown “visitor” switch.
Downtown Greensboro isn't in a good place right now. We'll come back... but only if we stop pretending everything's fine and make the unpopular decisions needed to fix it.
Part of how we got here: SUCCESS THEATER
Downtown Greensboro Inc.'s own 2022–23 annual report cited roughly 8.4 million total visits downtown.
That's one hell of a number... until you keep reading and realize that the same report also listed the actual number of visitors at about 1.7 million.
So what happened to the other 6.7 million people?
Nothing...they don't exist.
DGI shifted its headline metric from visitors to visits, and the same person working or living downtown can rack up hundreds of visits a year without becoming a new human being.
Mathematically it works... 1.7 million people producing 8.4 million visits may be legitimate.
But come on... it is a little...how do you say.... sneaky?
The wording in the presentation talks about visitors one year, lead with visits the next, and downtown appears to explode from under 2 million people to over 8 million.
It did not... the metric simply changed.
And while the slides said "downtown is killing it," restaurants were dying and the warning signs were getting harder to ignore.
That my friends is the real danger of success theater... eventually you stop looking for the disease, and by the time reality catches up, you need to put your affairs in order.
That's Exhibit A: change the metric, expand the geography, count more activity, add a multiplier... and you've got yourself one hell of a headline.
Now look at The Coliseum numbers...
In 2013, Clemson's Thurmond Institute studied the Greensboro Coliseum Complex, based on 2012 operations, using hotel room-night data from the Greensboro CVB. Real, checkable numbers: 71,605 room nights tied to the Coliseum Complex, 25,657 tied to the Aquatic Center, a 1.16 operational multiplier, and an estimated county economic output of $48,342,700 to $64,551,800. For the 2013 ACC Men's Tournament alone: 16,200 room nights, about $3.6 million in output.
It was far from a perfect study, but it gave taxpayers something tangible to check against the headline.
Room nights and "heads in beds".
Now the newest Clemson study, commissioned by the Greensboro Sports Foundation, covering the Greensboro Complex and Tanger Center for FY2023–24.
The headline: $553.5 million in economic impact.
Holy mackerel !ll
Did Greensboro become ten times the tourism destination it was a decade ago?
Nope, not exactly... like for DGI, the scope changed, the assumptions changed, the model changed.
The earlier study counted 1.55 million attendees at the Coliseum Complex.
The new one counts 1.71 million... across a much bigger collection of venues, including Tanger.
That's roughly a 10 percent bump in attendance.
The headline number, meanwhile, went from roughly $48–65 million to $553.5 million.
Make that make sense... anyone? anyone? Bueller?
And it's not like every venue is bursting at the seams.
White Oak Amphitheatre... Greensboro's 7,666-seat outdoor venue, built for a May-through-October concert season... logged, per Concert Archives: 4 touring shows in 2022, 5 in 2023, zero recorded in 2024, 4 in 2025, 1 so far in 2026.
That won't catch every private or community event, but it doesn't describe a venue in the middle of some entertainment boom.
So maybe the math is the only thing that actually exploded.
The Complex pulled in $97.5 million in reported revenue for the year.
Run that through the REMI model and complex operations alone generate $275 million in output... a 2.82 multiplier, versus 1.16 in the older study. Local patron spending adds another $10 million.
Touted non-local patron spending adds $268.7 million.
Add it up and Clemson's own report lands on $553.5 million in total output, supporting 9,416 jobs and $203.9 million in compensation countywide.
Here's the part I think is telling: Clemson's own footnote says the individual pieces "may not sum precisely to the total impact" because of price-feedback effects inside the REMI model.
It also states:"The views presented here are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Regional Economic Analysis Laboratory (CU-REAL) or of Clemson University. Nothing in this report should be construed to indicate en-rsement by CU-REAL or by Clemson University."
Cool... now we know.
But that's also a pretty good illustration of what we're dealing with here.
Those numbers came from an economic model... yet somehow the final answer arrives looking pretty freaking precise:
$553.5 million.
Personally, I’d feel a little better if that number came from somebody emptying the cash registers at the end of the night and adding up the receipts.
But it doesn’t... It comes from a model.
A model that somehow turned roughly $97.5 million in reported revenue into more than half a billion dollars in economic output.
The activity grew a bit and the universe being measured grew a whole lot.
The model did the rest.
Worth noting… that $553.5 million isn’t even a sports-tourism number.
It covers the entire Greensboro Complex and Tanger Center… First Horizon Coliseum, the Aquatic Center, White Oak, Piedmont Hall, the Fieldhouse, the Special Events Center, the ACC Hall of Champions, Tanger… the works.
So woven into that number are basketball tournaments and swim meets… but also Paw Patrol, Wheel of Fortune Live, The Golden Girls… and the touring edition of The Price Is Right.
So that $553.5 million headline may be perfectly legitimate as modeled economic output… but as a sports-tourism number?
Come on... that part is bullsh*t.
Sports tourism is not generating half a billion dollars here…
at least not yet... I hope one day it does.
The study also treats anyone traveling from outside roughly 50 miles as a tourist, assumes two people per hotel room, and... for the tax math... assumes every one of those visitors stayed in a Greensboro hotel... every single one of them.
Unlike the earlier study, this one gives us no clean room-night total to check that against.
We keep getting the impact number but we almost never get the receipts.
One thing is very clear thing... $553.5 MILLION IS NOT $553.5 MILLION IN PUBLIC MONEY.
Clemson's own tax estimates: about $5.6 million in county sales tax, $1.7 million in county occupancy tax, $1.6 million in city occupancy tax... roughly $8.9 million in estimated local tax impact, against a $553.5 million headline.
$553.5 million and $8.9 million are not the same fact… and that’s one hell of a gap.
I think the easiest way to understand all of this is to ask one very simple question: Who paid for such a comprehensive… and remarkably generous… study?
The Greensboro Sports Foundation did... Dick "Pickleball" Beard is the CEO of the organization whose mission includes recruiting sporting events for Greensboro's facilities.
FOLLOW IT THROUGH: GSF commissions the study, the study produces a massive number, the Complex publicizes it, tourism organizations celebrate it, hospitality businesses benefit from the activity…
Abuzuaiter nods enthusiastically, smiles really big and grabs the scissors… she's now ready for the photo op and the ribbon cutting.
The number now becomes part of the case for putting even more public money back into the same ecosystem that produced it.
I get how the game is played. But for the love of Dick Beard, stop calling this an independent audit. It isn't.
It's a commissioned study, and it means you should know who paid for them.
There are also some very interesting people sitting around the tables involved in all this. Matt Brown alone could occupy another thousand words. So I'm saving him. We'll come back to him and others in Part II.
Look, to be fair… this is nothing new.
DGI does it with “visits.”
The Greenway does it with “economic impact.”
GSF does it with sports tourism.
Same basic playbook... find the biggest number the methodology can support, put it in giant type, and repeat it until it starts sounding like facts.
Finally... and sorry, I know it's long, but it's the week end...
We're already lining up the next giant number: the 2029 FISU World University Games.
When North Carolina landed the Games in January 2023, the projected economic impact was more than $150 million.
By March 2026, Greensboro's own legislative agenda was advertising: $300 MILLION.
Two months later… $370 MILLION.
Cool.
We've gone from $150 million to $370 million and not one athlete has arrived. The Games are still three years away.
At this rate, by opening ceremonies we'll be pushing $600 million… and somebody will probably round it up to a billion… you know… for the press release.
Meanwhile, here's a number worth remembering: about $100 million... what organizers say the Games themselves are expected to cost.
North Carolina has already put in $25 million in state money.
I hope the Games are spectacular. I hope they generate every penny projected.
But after watching how these numbers get built, I’m going to need something a little more convincing than Sport's Foundation sponsored study and the press release that comes with it.
PART II: The people, the hotels, the boards, the salaries, the contracts… and the incestuous web of overlapping seats holding the whole machine together.