National Storm Center

06/20/2026

Northern California Fire

Munjar Fire
Area of Munjar Rd x Meridian Rd, Chico
Butte County, CA

Approx .5 acre to 1 acre burned!

Update: The fire is 1/2-1 acre burning at a slow rate of spread with low potential - per Air Attack.

Resources are on scene of a 1/4 acre vegetation fire burning at a slow rate of spread in grass - per first arriving units. Current view of the fire can be seen above.

06/18/2026

06/18/2026

06/17/2026

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms remain likely this afternoon into tonight, with the peak threat centered over Illinois and Indiana. Intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging wind-driven large hail will all be possible.

...20z Update...
An extremely complicated forecast scenario will continue this afternoon in the wake of a persistent morning convective cluster. An anomalously strong upper trough and jet are still forecast to move over parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. This will support renewed convective development near the trailing outflow from the morning cluster over the Midwest and along the synoptic cold front from northeast MO into parts of KS and far
northern OK.

Rapid modification of the air mass along and north of the trailing outflow boundary/effective warm front still appears plausible given 1-2 mb/hr pressure falls, ongoing low-level moisture advection and strong heating ahead of the deepening surface cyclone. A focused mesoscale corridor of strong to intense tornado potential remains evident from east of St Louis, MO, across south-central IL and into west-central IN, where RAP soundings show 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and exceptionally strong low and mid-level shear with ESRH upwards of 400-600 m2/s2. The primary uncertainty remains the development and maintenance of supercells in the wake of the MCS. CAM guidance remains insistent on a few intense supercells organizing in this corridor from late afternoon into the evening with a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. The threat may persist into portions of eastern IN, KY and western OH tonight.

Across central MO into KS and OK, a very unstable and moderately sheared air mass (18z TOP/SGF RAOBS) will promote rapid supercell
development in the next couple of hours along and ahead of the sagging cold front. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible. As large-scale forcing for ascent moves away this evening, storm coverage should slowly diminish, though the more intense supercells may linger well into the evening with an all hazards risk.

Primary changes to the outlook were to remove northern portions of the ENH and MDT risk areas where substantial air mass recovery is
unlikely. Wind probabilities were increased on the southern end near the OH River to account for clustering of expected upstream development.

Elsewhere, minor changes were made to trim probabilities behind the cold front. See the previous discussion for additional information.

...MO/IL/IN...
An intense and fast-moving shortwave trough continues to approach the Midwest today, with an associated 90+ knot mid level jet streaking across the region. A very strong southerly low-level jet precedes this trough, and has resulted in widespread thunderstorms over central IL. The effects of this early convection will be
important to the mesoscale details of where the main risk of severe storms will develop later today.

The primary outflow boundary from ongoing storms currently extends from extreme northeast MO into south-central IL, and continues to sag southward. Strong heating is occurring to the south of the boundary, and given the intense low-level flow, some northward return is expected. However, it appears unlikely to substantially destabilize as far north as earlier forecasts. The zone in vicinity of the boundary will become very unstable by mid-late afternoon, with forecast soundings continuing to show impressive shear values and hodograph structures suggestive of tornadic supercell potential.

Very large hail and damaging winds will also be possible with this activity as it tracks quickly eastward into central IN. Strong tornadoes are possible.

By mid-evening, a line of severe storms will likely extend from central MO into southern IN, with damaging winds becoming the primary threat.

...Southeast MN...
A small area of heating/destabilization has developed near the surface low over southern MN. Cold temperatures aloft and strong
deep-layer shear suggests a threat of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this afternoon.

...LA/MS...
Tropical Storm Arthur will track northward and affect LA and southern MS tonight. A zone of strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the circulation will result in some concern for
overnight and pre-dawn tornadoes across southeast LA into far southern MS.

...Southern AZ/NM...
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected across southeast AZ and southwest NM. Strong heating and ample instability will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

06/16/2026

**Potential Tropical Cyclone One Expected to Bring Heavy Rainfall to Portions of Southeast Texas**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria Islands, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Galveston Island, and Matagorda Islands

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria Islands, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Galveston Island, and Matagorda Islands

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 250 miles southwest of Galveston TX
- 27.0N 98.0W
- Storm Intensity 30 mph
- Movement Northeast or 45 degrees at 6 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 will move into the western Gulf and meander along the coast, before crossing into southwest Louisiana
Wednesday evening. Potential impacts to southeast Texas include the prospect of locally heavy rainfall along the immediate coast, 1-3 feet of coastal flooding across the coast and along the bays, and gusts to tropical storm force along the coast. Impacts are expected to begin
later in the day on Tuesday and persist into Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for all coastal areas of SE Texas and the Gulf waters out 60 nm, with the exception of Matagorda Bay.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across portions of southeast Texas. Potential
impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to significant impacts across southeast Texas.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the coastal portions of southeast Texas. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Coastal flood warnings and advisories have been issued for the immediate coast. Please reference the Coastal Hazard Message for
more information. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Numerous roads may be closed. Low lying property including homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure could be inundated. Some shoreline erosion will occur.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across southeast Texas. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the ex*****on of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.

05/18/2026

Serene Fire
Near Serene Ln & Bronson Ct, Oroville
Butte County, CA

New fire start off lone tree. Near Ophir rd.

05/15/2026

Wagon Fire
90 Block of Toyon Hills Dr, Approximately 5.5 Miles Southwest of Feather Falls
Butte County, CA