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10/14/2017

Mesoscale Discussion 1713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...northern/central Missouri...far southern Iowa...and
west-central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 142035Z - 142300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The discussion area is being monitored for increasing
severe potential over the next 2-3 hours, which may necessitate a WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...A complex surface pattern currently exists across the
discussion area. Both a warm front and differential heating zone
are separating a moderately unstable airmass (nearly 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE) over central Missouri from rain-cooled air to the north.
Isolated convection was located along and just north of these
boundaries, although weak mid-level lapse rates and a lack of
forcing for ascent aloft has resulted in sub-severe convection so
far this afternoon.

Continued surface heating and convergence along the front may be
enough to encourage isolated surface-based development that will
pose a risk for wind/hail and perhaps a tornado over the next 2-3
hours, especially near the differential heating zone. While this
initial activity may be too isolated to necessitate a WW, increasing
convective activity upstream in eastern Kansas may further organize
and pose a severe risk initially in northwestern Missouri -
spreading eastward across the discussion area over time. A WW
issuance is possible for this activity, and convective trends will
continue to be monitored.

..Cook/Hart.. 10/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for

10/14/2017

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
445 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kansas
Southwest Missouri

* Effective this Saturday afternoon from 445 PM until Midnight
CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to intensify
near a pre-frontal boundary/outflow and also farther to the west
along a cold front. Bouts of severe hail and damaging winds will be
the primary concerns through the evening hours.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south of
Olathe KS to 70 miles west southwest of Emporia KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.

10/14/2017

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
510 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Iowa
Northern and western Illinois
Far eastern Kansas
Northern Missouri

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 510
PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to intensify in multiple pre-frontal
corridors across the region. Some hail will initially be possible,
but damaging winds should be the primary risk along with some
potential for tornadoes, particularly as low-level shear steadily
strengthens this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 10 miles east southeast of Marseilles
IL to 15 miles west of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 500...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.

...Guyer

10/14/2017

An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the south-central Plains to the upper Great Lakes region. Damaging gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.


Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today.
Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Sun (10/15).

10/14/2017

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION....

...SUMMARY...
Showers and a few thunderstorms producing strong to locally damaging
wind gusts will be possible across parts of the lower Great Lakes
region Sunday afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A progressive upper flow pattern is forecast to continue tomorrow as
a vigorous upper trough currently over the central Rockies
accelerates across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. At the
surface, a low is expected to deepen as it moves from the Great
Lakes toward southern Quebec, with a strong trailing cold front
moving rapidly eastward across the northeastern states during the
period.

...Lower Great Lakes Region...
A moist air mass will be in place in the warm sector tomorrow with
surface dew points in the 60s. However, thermodynamic profiles
appear marginal for thunderstorm development as meager lapse rates
and relatively warm mid-level temperatures limit instability, with
SBCAPE generally less than 500-750 J/kg. Despite the weak
thermodynamic environment, very strong isallobaric forcing along the
cold front will coincide with the right entrance region of a strong
upper level jet core advancing from the lower Great Lakes into the
St. Lawrence Valley. This will support development of a narrow,
low-topped QLCS along the cold front, consistent with guidance from
numerous 12Z CAMs and HREFv2 guidance.

Strong winds aloft will be located near the cold front with 50-60 kt
at 850 mb, and forecast soundings show stronger low-level winds
lowering to near the surface along and immediately behind the cold
front. This process will be potentially aided by convective
downdrafts within the QLCS vertical circulation, suggesting a threat
for strong to locally damaging winds as the narrow convective line
moves rapidly eastward during the afternoon. The
convectively-enhanced wind threat should gradually diminish by
evening with the onset of boundary layer cooling and stabilization.