12/12/2025
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Friday 12/12/25
‼️First Due Weather Alert ‼️
⚠️Watch for Isolated Icy spots⚠️
❄️Light Snow Saturday night❄️
~🥶💨Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions continue today💨🥶.
High pressure to our south today.
~ 🌤️☀️Mostly sunny to sunny skies for today
~🥶Windchills as cold as between 5°F and 15°F, today.
~🥶High temperatures today at around freezing.
~🥶Lows tonight in the teens with clear skies
💨Peak gusts from the west at around 25 MPH today.
~⛅️☁️Mostly cloudy for Saturday. Highs in the upper 30s. Windchills , 15°F to 25°F. A warm front passes from the west, to our north, during the day. A cold front passes from the west Saturday night.
~❄️70% to 100% probability for light snow Saturday night into Sunday morning.❄️
-🕰️Watch 9 PM to 8 AM-
📏 Coating to 2” of snowfall most likely. Highest accumulation off to the southeast.
An area of Low pressure forms off the Virginia coast and takes a path of travel south and east of the benchmark. A relative miss in theory for a big snowstorm for our area. Highest snowfall totals to our southeast with this track.
Temperatures peak on Sunday in the upper 20s during late morning. Clearing afternoon skies with temperatures falling through the 20s.
Cold, Sunday night through Tuesday with High pressure off to our south. High temperatures remain below freezing with lows in the teens.
Potential for a passing snow shower later Monday with increasing cloudiness expected during the day. Mostly sunny Tuesday.
🥵A warm up with above seasonal temperatures expected between Wednesday and Friday. Mostly cloudy skies.
The seasonal temperatures, this time of the year. Average high around 38°F. Average low around 22°F.
A warm front from the west passes Wednesday and a cold front from the west passes late Thursday.
☔️Potential for rain, Thursday night.
💨Gusty winds return Friday.
🥶 I am starting today with 18°F, this morning with my 4 AM, check in. Currently, temperatures across the local region at this check in, mid teens to low 20s. As cold as 12°F in the Catskills and as warm as 27°F in Manhattan.
The Lake Effect snow machine begins to diminish later today. A stray flurry or snow shower could spread into our region today.
The weather pattern over the next ten days will continue to be conducive to support the passing of several Alberta Clippers.
Alberta Clippers are fast moving Low pressure systems which generally affect parts of the Upper Mid West, the Great Lakes, and the northeast US. Clippers typically generate 1”-3” of snow as a light snow event. Clippers are accompanied with a sudden temperature drop and sharp winds. They typically move eastward out to sea.
Now, if we can get a ridge to develop or some blocking out in the Atlantic Ocean, some Clippers can spawn into Miller B, Nor’easters. Snow enthusiasts, rejoice.
Watching some potential for this upcoming weekend, Saturday night into Sunday. Another Clipper has trouble holding together, tonight into Saturday, off to our north. It gets squeezed out with cold and dry air from High pressure. However, it will be able to spawn an intensifying coastal area of Low pressure during Saturday night. It establishes itself, east of the benchmark. The precipitation shield will graze our area, but the Low takes a path of travel, most likely, well east of the benchmark. Even a potential miss.
Another Clipper passes well north Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Lastly, another Clipper is in line to develop and potentially pass toward the end of the upcoming week around Thursday afternoon into early Friday. It passes to our north. This one may deliver a rainfall event to our area.
Precipitation chances:
~Snow shower potential, Saturday night into Sunday. 70% to 100% probability.
-Snow shower potential Tuesday night into Wednesday. 10% to 20% probability.
~Snow or rain shower potential Thursday afternoon into early next Friday, 60% to 80% probability.
⛄️Operational guidances are projecting about 1” to 3” of snowfall over the next 10 days. The snowiest scenarios from our long range ensembles that go out about 15 days, suggest as much as 5” to 10” or more, snowfall total scenarios, through the day after Christmas.
I peaked at 34°F on Thursday after starting the day with 24°F. I bottomed out at 20°F, last evening. I started this morning with 18°F.
At 5 AM, the RADAR is ALL quiet.
7 day liquid equivalent totals, 1/10” to 1/2”, most likely. Outliers to 1” of liquid equivalent.
‼️The drought monitor published Thursday enhanced moderate drought conditions across the western 2/3 of Orange County. Abnormally dry to our north, east, and southeast. Severe drought continues over the NJ hill towns. Even with above average rainfall during October and surplus with annual rainfall, the deficit of 2” to 3” of rainfall over the last 1/4 of the year is still being combatted. November was an abnormally dry month too.
The 14 day general precipitation ensemble forecast QPF, 1/2” to 1 1/2” of liquid equivalent. Outliers to 2” to 2 1/2”.
Model ensembles are projecting a wintry pattern potentially sets up, be patient, snow lovers. December may still become more snowy!
Keep Watching
