Weather 2020

09/30/2025

Mind-Blowing Forecast Validation!
If you’ve followed the LRC over the past two decades, what just happened is still incredible. Weather 20/20 predicted:
TS Chantal (Jul 4–7)
Major Hurricane Erin (Aug 11–22)
Major Hurricane Humberto (Sep 25–Oct 1)
Hurricane Imelda (Sep 27–Oct 1) And, the prediction stems from last October. You can read about it in the report we just published. Today is the last day of our LRC is setting up 50% discount. Here is the link: https://open.substack.com/pub/weather2020/p/historic-hurricanes-and-the-new-lrc?r=183akg&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true In the next year ahead you will be going on this journey of discovery, accurate predictions, data, and insights as we share the LRC with you. The new pattern begins in less than one week!!!

09/29/2025

A rare hurricane story unfolding, and many of you have been following the LRC for decades, and I appreciate you all being on this journey with us at Weather 20/20. This is an interesting stat that I think you will understand. Let me know if you have any questions as it is mind blowing. Not only are intensifying Tropical Storm Imelda and Major Hurricane Humberto related through the LRC, listen to this: There have been 44 Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes on record. Only 3 in history never made landfall as a tropical cyclone. Now in 2025, we likely add two more: Erin already became only the third CAT 5 to not make any landfalls as a tropical cyclone. Humberto is still completing its lifecycle, but is on track to join this rare group.
Erin peaked Cat 5 on Aug 16. Humberto peaked Cat 5 on Sep 27. That’s 42 days apart—matching the ~41-day rhythm of the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). And, it goes deeper.
In our March hurricane forecast guide, we identified the late-October 2024 weather seeds that would return in 2025.
From those seeds came:
Chantal (Jul 5)
Erin (Aug 11–22, Cat 5, no landfall)
Humberto (Sep 25–Oct 2, Cat 5, likely no landfall)
Imelda (Sep 28–current)
Four storms, all tied to one recurring LRC segment. Rare hurricanes, right on schedule.

09/22/2025

Good afternoon! 🍂 Fall officially began today at 1:15 PM. For many, it’s their favorite season. Personally, I love them all — but winter edges out the others for me. Not because of the cold (I don’t like that part), but because snow has always felt magical. Growing up in Southern California, “snow days” meant looking out and seeing the San Gabriel Mountains capped in white. That sight has always stayed with me.
Today also marks something very important in the atmosphere: the evolution of the new LRC. Why now? Because this afternoon, the sun set at the North Pole — the moment that signals the seasonal shift. After about a dozen days of twilight, it goes completely dark at the North Pole, and right around then, the new LRC begins to take shape.
Coincidence? I don’t think so. This is part of the atmospheric rhythm I’ve been studying for decades. Already, we see signs of change — a storm system is heading our way. Here in Colorado, snow levels may dip to near 10,000 feet, while Kansas City could see some rain tomorrow, but also keep in mind, this storm is still part of the old pattern. Welcome to the changing seasons — and the beginning of the new LRC which is now less than two weeks away from starting.

08/26/2025

Gooooooooooooood morning! A rare late-August cool wave has taken over! Instead of sizzling heat, parts of Oklahoma are only reaching the 60s this afternoon. Here’s the 4 PM forecast — can you believe it? Feels more like October than August in a few spots. Are you soaking up this refreshing break from the summer heat?

08/22/2025

Goooooooooood morning. I am heading to the airport and I will be in Kansas City this afternoon. I hope to see a few of you at the Head for the Cure 5K in Overland Park /Corporate Woods Sunday morning. Cooler air is moving in this weekend, and the next named tropical system is likely going to form this weekend. Let's take a look at the Weather 20/20 Youtube video. Have a great day. I will try to check in live from KC in a few hours! It is always emotional for me when I arrive in KC and start reminiscing about my 30 years living there! Have a great day!

The Gulf of Mexico has been rather quiet so far this season. Could this be about to change. Let's take a look.

08/20/2025

Gooooooooooood morning! Who is ready for it to cool off and wipe out the humidity?
It’s looking beautiful for the Head for the Cure 5K fundraiser this Sunday as we come together to help raise funds to defeat brain cancer.
I’ll be in Kansas City this weekend for the event and hope to see many of you there!
A strong summer cold front will push through Friday night into Saturday, leaving Sunday with fantastic weather — cooler temperatures and the humidity swept away. Perfect running and walking conditions!
👉 Register here: https://impact.headforthecure.org/event/head-for-the-cure-5k-kansas-city-2025/e641185

08/16/2025

Hurricane Update! Major Category 4 Hurricane Erin has rapidly intensified overnight with wind gusts near 165 mph with sustained wind speeds nearing 130 mph close to the eyeball. The storm is forecast to curve offshore of North Carolina, but it’s critical we keep monitoring closely as the pattern evolves. Even a slight track shift could change impacts along the East Coast, but I am confident it will stay far enough out to sea to limit the impact on the USA. Look at that eye as the sun was shining on it at sunrise today. This storm is a powerful reminder of how quickly conditions can escalate in the tropics. Stay weather aware, and we’ll continue updating you as Erin progresses. I will have a full tropical update as we look at the cycling pattern by early this afternoon: Weather2020.substack.com

08/14/2025

Ever heard of the MJO? I know a lot of you on this page will know the name! Yesterday I had the privilege of meeting Dr. Roland Madden — the ‘M’ in MJO — and we had a fantastic conversation about the MJO and the LRC. Here’s our photo!

08/12/2025

5 to 10 Months in Advance — Right on Schedule
Back in March, using the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC), we identified a mid-August tropical development zone as one of our key forecast targets for 2025, and it is traced back to late October from what are called "weather seeds".

Today, Tropical Storm Erin is tracking right through that exact forecast zone — a direct, on-time verification of a prediction made 10 months after the original weather seed formed last October, shown on the attached map.

This is the same atmospheric pattern that’s delivered over 90% accuracy in severe weather outbreak forecasts this year — and it’s now guiding our harvest outlook in the latest Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report.

https://open.substack.com/pub/weather2020/p/the-long-range-harvest-weather-forecast?r=183akg&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

08/09/2025

A stormy start to the weekend! The ring of fire returns. 5” of rain is possible by Monday night. I’ll have more details soon! Here is the radar at 7 AM. Let me know if you hear thunder and what you are experiencing near KC!

08/06/2025

The First Atlantic Hurricane Is Likely Within 10-Days. Here is a rather in-depth look at the LRC predictions from months ago for this developing pattern, and we discuss the phases of this year's cycling pattern. https://youtu.be/09bVfIHDlas?si=doCBdgJn7_FDNWae via Let me know if you have any questions

Tropical Storm Dexter formed yesterday. The first hurricane of the season over the Atlantic Basin will likely form within ten days. Let's go in-depth as we...

08/04/2025

Goooooooooood Monday morning! The Cycling Weather Pattern Is Right On Schedule — Again.
Tropical Storm Dexter just formed over the Atlantic and is tracking within 300 miles of where Tropical Storm Andrea developed 41 days ago — matching this year’s LRC cycle length of ~41 days.
🔁 This is not a coincidence. It’s the Lezak Recurring Cycle in action — a cycling atmospheric pattern that has accurately predicted tropical systems, severe weather outbreaks, winter storms, and other significant weather events weeks to months in advance.

🌊 Another storm system is likely to form in the coming days over the Atlantic, and it could threaten the southeastern U.S. coast in the middle of this month, targeting the southeast U.S. coast. This aligns with the prediction we made back in March, based on the same returning pattern and is related to Chantal that made landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border.

For Kansas City, Denver, and other locations around the world tracking our updates, this weather pattern also means that the wetter part of the cycling pattern is also due within a couple weeks. I hope you are enjoying the break from the heat the past few days!