Hudson Valley Weather

09/28/2025

09/28/2025

530pm Sunday, September 28th, 2025
Tropical weather update

TD9 has now become Tropical Storm Imelda .. The latest weather models and data now showing Imelda making a right turn out towards the ocean away from land sooner than expected as shown in past weather models.

This is good news for those in Georgia and the Carolinas, but you will still feel the effects of heavy rains and some wind gusts. Storm surge is the only thing that will not be as bad now as of this update.

Please check back for the latest updates

………………..

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

⚠️ IMELDA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ONGOING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 77.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for the east coast of Florida from Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador

* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 77.3 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and faster northward motion is expected tonight continuing through Monday.

On Tuesday, Imelda is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and tonight and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. by the middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Recently, a WeatherSTEM station observed sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) at Blue Lagoon Island just northeast of Nassau, Bahamas.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND:
Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and should continue through Monday morning.

RAINFALL:
Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across eastern Cuba and 4 to 8 inches across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches are expected through Tuesday across coastal South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE:
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF:
Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week.

⚠️ These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

Forecaster Papin

Link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/271150.shtml?cone

09/27/2025

6pm Saturday, September 27th, 2025
Tropical weather update

The NHC Invest 94L has now become Tropical Depression 9 and soon to be Imelda

Interests in the Bahamas and east coast of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, & North Carolina should closely monitor the outcome of TD9. Models are showing the most TD9 and soon to become Imelda should only reach cat 1 status .. but I’m not buying it .. This tropical storm is going to run over the very warm waters of the Gulf loop current (a stream/current from the Gulf that runs around the south tip of Florida and moves north) along the east coast and could reach cat 2 or 3 status.

TD9 soon to become TS Imelda will create large swells, beach erosion, and deadly rip currents! Please take all necessary precautions and follow the latest updates.
-Todd

…………..

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

⚠️ DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY

⚠️ HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 76.5W

ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador

* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

⚠️ Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 76.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and Sunday night and approach the southeast U.S. coast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Sunday and a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND:
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight or early Sunday and in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the east coast of Florida on Monday.

⚠️ RAINFALL:
Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce additional rainfall of 4 to 8 across eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Across
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba, an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

By early next week, moisture from Tropical Depression Nine is
expected to bring a threat of heavy rainfall from the east coast of Florida northward into the eastern Carolinas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible, with localized totals of 10 inches across portions of the coastal Carolinas. This rainfall could result in flash, urban, and river flooding. Changes in the forecast track could result in adjustments to these rainfall totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

⚠️ STORM SURGE:
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

⚠️ 🌊 SURF:
Swells generated by this system and Hurricane Humberto will
affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

Forecaster Reinhart

09/27/2025

09/27/2025

The National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan will provide a LIVE update on Tropical Depression Nine around 5:15 PM EDT today September 27, 2025. Please join us on Facebook Live and the NHC YouTube Page at: http://youtube.com/user/NWSNHC

Full details of the latest forecast at: Hurricanes.gov

09/26/2025

Confirmed EF0 🌪️ Yesterday near Callicoon Center

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
559 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

1157 AM Tornado 1 SE Callicoon Center 41.83N 74.96W
09/25/2025 Sullivan NY NWS Storm Survey

Just before noon, a storm along a warm front
separated from the rest of the line and
began to rotate. With a favorable
environment but low instability, a weak
tornado touched down near Callicoon Center.
With near peak foliage in parts of the
Catskills, it was easy for the weak
circulation to loft leaves into the storm
that were detected by radar with a debris
signature. The circulation was strongest on
hilltops and weak to non existent in
valleys.

09/26/2025

The National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan will provide a LIVE update on the tropics around 5:00 PM EDT today September 26, 2025. Please join us on Facebook Live and the NHC YouTube Page at: http://youtube.com/user/NWSNHC
Full details of the latest forecast at: Hurricanes.gov/

09/25/2025

624pm Thursday
Weather radar update

Showers and thunderstorms ⛈️ continue across portions of the HVW area. All precipitation will come to an end around 915pm tonight and it will end from west to east as seen here on this weather radar update.

09/25/2025

Next round of moderate to heavy rainfall is moving west to east across the region, an additional .25-75” of rainfall is likely, although some localized amounts up to an 1”+ are possible where heaviest rain is most persistent.

09/25/2025

Any help for our friends at NWS BGM?

The weather turned hazardous quickly earlier this afternoon in Sullivan and Delaware County, NY. A Tornado Warning was issued just after 12PM this afternoon and there was a clear debris signature in the the location where a tornado would be likely. We've received reports of damage in this area but we have yet to get ground truth (via pictures, personal accounts, videos) of a tornado.

As long as it is safe for you, if you have any information or videos/images of a tornado or damage in and around the Livingston Manor area would be greatly appreciated.

09/25/2025

09/25/2025