06/17/2026
In 2020 you needed to earn $40,000 to afford the typical starter home. Today you need $79,000. That's not inflation. That's a different market entirely.
And here's what makes it worse.
The median starter home in 2020 was $169,000 with a 3.5% mortgage rate. Today that same category of home runs $260,000 nationally, and in most major metros it's pushing $400,000 to $500,000. At 6.5%.
The monthly payment on a $169,000 home in 2020 was around $760.
The monthly payment on a $260,000 home today at 6.5% is around $1,650. Before taxes and insurance.
Same tier of home. Same rung on the ladder. More than double the payment.
And the income needed to buy it has nearly doubled while median household income has gone up maybe 20% over the same period. The gap between those two numbers is exactly where the American dream went.
Here's the stat that stopped me cold. The average age of a first-time homebuyer in America is now 40 years old. Two years ago it was 35.
People aren't waiting because they want to. They're waiting because the math keeps saying not yet.
I bought my first home at 27 back in 2005 at 4.75% and thought I was getting squeezed. I had no idea how good that actually was.
The income needed to afford a starter home has tripled since 2012. The median household income hasn't even doubled. Every year that gap stays open is another year a generation gets priced further out.
That's not a housing problem. That's a wealth building problem that compounds every single year someone can't get in.