Little Bear Creek Weather

09/29/2025

The rain is here! It’s a wet Monday morning commute so give yourself a little extra time to get where you need to be! It’ll be breezy at times this morning too. A 51mph gust was measured on Whidbey Island this morning. Fall has certainly arrived!

09/28/2025

Hey all! Happy Sunday!

Rain returns overnight into Monday, and we will be staying in a rainy pattern for the week. Fall is finally here!

Tonight into tomorrow morning, it’ll be breezy at times, and areas in the San Juans could see some gusts 45mph+ as a dying front moves ashore. The main metro area will see gusts of 25-35mph, which may result in some small downed limbs. Very isolated power outages could happen, but overall nothing major expected. The first graphic is one model run of expected winds.

In terms of rain- the models have been a little all over the place with totals, and below is the Euro from yesterday. Decent rain totals through late week - with a little over 2” for some areas in the main metro. This is just one model run though, other models showed less around the area. Regardless, it will be rainy at times and cooler, temps struggling to get into the 60s most days. The warmer spots could see low to mid 60s, but it will definitely feel noticeably chillier!

Who’s excited?!

09/21/2025

Rain is knocking on the door at the coast! It will slowly spread inland over the next handful of hours!

09/20/2025

Have had some personal things going on this weekend - here is an update from Scott!

IS THIS THE PERFECT SEATTLE FORECAST?

OK I know that’s a tricky headline since around here ask 10 people what their perfect Seattle forecast is and there won’t be any solid consensus.

But I think what we’ve got the next 7-10 days might be close?

Now that we’ve stopped baking the Seattle area with flash/freak heat waves, the sunshine has been a lot more manageable. Seattle reached 76 Friday which is a little on the toasty side for mid September but few complaints.

Next up is a more robust front — that one last weekend I joked was sort of like a “preseason” front; the one this weekend is ready for the regular season.

But even lending more toward the “perfect” forecast scenario is that most of the rain is pegged for overnight Saturday night, so even your Saturday outdoor plans look OK, with rain holding off in the I-5 corridor till around the 10-midnight time frame.

Still, this front should do a much better job of getting everyone a good soaking rain. Widespread rainfall totals of 0.30-0.50” are forecast by midday Sunday — just what the doctor ordered. That should do wonders to knock down the Olympic and Cascade fires again.

That's crucial because the pesky Bear Gulch Fire is at it again with terrible smoke impacts Friday night. With a north wind and sinking air the air quality in parts of Mason and Thurston Counties have dropped to very unhealthy levels -- even "hazardous" readings in Hoodsport where the AQI was a ridiculously bad 675, and over 200 around Shelton ("Very Unhealthy" levels.)

As mentioned, the first half of Sunday will see lingering rain but the rain should taper off in the I-5 corridor after about noon or so, with a drier, albeit cooler and breezy Sunday afternoon (winds enough to give the air a fall-like feel, but not impactful— like around 25 mph gusts.)

The exception to the drier afternoon is in the Puget Sound Convergence Zone — you keep rain in the forecast through the day Sunday.

So sun fans get Saturday; rain fans get Sunday (ish). Who gets next week?

Sun fans appear to get a bonus week. In a bit of deja vu, we’re sunny and pleasant Monday, then warm up again on Tuesday — though NOT 90s (😅— don’t deploy the Emergency Kittens just yet!), more like mid-upper 70s.

Then like this week, it’s a gradual cool down pointing to… dealer’s choice? Depending on your forecast model of choice, a sunny and warm weekend, says the current Euro model, or quite wet and cool, which is where the American-GFS is leaning. (Apparently the Euro model is no longer into the Wishcasting business this month.)

Until then, we’ll see if we can keep things in perfect balance.

But let’s see if I’m right. What’s your idea of perfect weather?

(Photo below: Can see the Bear Gulch Fire smoke lingering over the Olympics and Kitsap Peninsula looking west over Elliott Bay from the Space Needle. Courtesy Space Needle)

09/17/2025

Good Morning!

Today should be very pleasant across the area with abundant sunshine and temperatures in the mid 70s for most! After peaking around 90 for many yesterday, today should feel lovely! We've got a couple more days of temperatures in the 70s with sunshine before showers make a return - and it looks like we have a shot at some decent rainfall by the end of the month, just in time for the change to fall on the calendar.

Sun fans, enjoy it while it lasts!

09/17/2025

09/16/2025

Good morning!

It's going to be a toasty one today! We've got Fire Weather Warnings up across the region for hot and dry conditions, with low humidity and gusty winds at times. The foothills susceptible to east winds are also under a Wind Advisory today for strong gusts up to about 40mph - under these conditions, if a fire was to start, it would be likely to spread explosively. The Bolt Creek Fire a few years ago started on a day with similar conditions. Use caution out there today!

On another interesting note - the first graphic below shows current temperatures as of 8am - the central metro area is in the low to mid 50s, but if you look out toward Issaquah and up into the mountain passes, temps are much higher, into the mid to upper 60s! This is because the east winds are pushing much warmer air through the passes into the foothills. This is a really neat way to see our microclimates at work!

09/16/2025

Work kept me pretty busy today so I haven’t had time to write a good update - here’s one from Benjamin at Washington Weather Chasers regarding tomorrow’s warmer temps, the red flag warning/fire weather warning, and gusty winds.

The fire weather watch has been upgraded to a red flag warning by the National Weather Service in Seattle. The warning will officially go into effect on Tuesday at 5am for all the areas highlight in pink. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either imminent or occurring now. Any fires that develop will likely spread quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Easterly winds are expected to develop tomorrow, especially in the Cascade gaps such as the Highway 2 cooridor and the I-90 corridor. The winds are expected to peak tomorrow morning, but will continue through the day tomorrow. Temperatures are also going to reach the upper 80s, perhaps even the low 90s tomorrow. The easterly wind will also serve to dry the air, leading to low relative humidity. All of these ingredients could lead to rapid fire spread if one were to ignite. So please, no burning tomorrow, makes sure you don’t have any loose chains when driving, and no tossing cigarette butts.
-Benjamin J

09/14/2025

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09/14/2025

The National Weather Service just sent out a Fire Weather Watch for late Monday into Tuesday.

Hard to believe that it is going to be hot and dry again on Tuesday, when today is cool and showery! But yes, late Monday into Tuesday we will see humidity drop and temps climb back toward the 80s, accompanied with breezy to gusty winds. This is a prime setup for rapid rates of fire spread - should a fire start. We will likely see increased activity on the existing wildfires as well on Tuesday, which may increase the amounts of smoke in the air. Smoke should stay aloft if we do see any move back into the area.

09/14/2025

Happy Sunday!

The main front is just about to move through, so many areas have seen showers and rain this morning - enough to create some puddles and to give the plants a little drink.

The initial rain will taper off soon but a convergence zone is expected to develop this afternoon - keeping the area between Seattle and Everett damp at times.

Who here is enjoying the rain? I know I am!

09/14/2025

Current radar at just before 11am Sunday.