03/15/2026
Hunker down, Bootheel neighbors
National Weather Service 602 AM CDT Sun
KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- A Wind Advisory is in effect for Sunday morning through Monday morning for wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph.
- A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through the entire Mid-South late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.
The main threat will be damaging winds with a 20% chance for a couple of brief tornadoes to occur as the line of storms moves across the entire Mid-South.
- Freeze Watches are in effect for the Mid-South Monday and Tuesday mornings.
DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
The latest GOES East Water V***r Imagery reveals a deepening trough over the InterMountain West with broad troughing across nearly the entire CONUS. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front remains draped from the KS/OK border ESE into the Carolinas.
Temperatures remain mild at this hour with readings mainly in the low to upper 60s. Generally light surface winds are observed
across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Over the next 12 hours, a deep trough will develop over the Southern Plains and take on a negative tilt as it moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Ahead of the system,strong surface cyclogenesis will ensue with a 989mb low forecast
to be near the IA/MO border by early afternoon.
The surface pressure gradient will tighten significantly across the region, with nearly a 10mb gradient from northeast Arkansas to northeast Mississippi.
Strong winds on the order of 20 to 30 mph will be plenty with wind gusts approaching 45 mph at times, especially over the Missouri Bootheel.
Strong WAA advection will simultaneously occur, with the latest HREF building between
750 and 1200 J/kg of SBCAPE across the entire Mid-South.
With the ejection of a 60 knot mid-level jet by and nearly 100 meter height falls across the region by mid afternoon, a strongly
forced QLCS will develop just to our west. The main threats with
the squall line will be damaging winds, but compact looping
hodographs will support the threat for at least a few
mesovortices within the line. There is some concern that discrete
cells could form ahead of the main cold front, associated with a
prefrontal trough, mainly over north Mississippi by mid to late
afternoon. Although the probability is less than 20% for
prefrontal organized convection, and only tied to a couple hi-res
model members at this time, the model soundings suggest a
supercell threat could emerge and could contain an all-hazards
threat early on. This window will remain rather short for
supercells, but they could quickly form and strengthen and result
in a strong tornado or two. Nonetheless, the QLCS will advance
quickly across the region by late afternoon and early evening and
congeal any prefrontal convection. There has been some talk about
a potential upgrade from the current Enhanced Risk (3/5), and the
main cause would be potential supercells on the southern end of
the QLCS, mainly over portions of southeast Arkansas and north
Mississippi. With some uncertainty still looming, the Enhanced
Risk with CIG1 covers the entire event well. The squall line
should clear the area around midnight tomorrow night, ending the
severe threat.
Behind the front, strong winds will persist as a 110 knot mid-
level jet digs across the region. The HREF is consistent with the
continual mixing down of strong winds behind the front, prompting
the expansion of the wind advisory to the entire Mid-South and a
time extension through 7AM Monday. With several hours of strong
winds and wind gusts before, during, and after the passage of the
QLCS, the threat for weather-related power outages and additional
downed trees will persist through the dawn hours on Monday.
Monday morning will be especially brisk as sustained 15 to 20 mph
winds keep apparent temperatures only in the 20s all day on
Monday. A freeze watch remains in effect for nearly the entire
Mid-South. Surface high pressure will build into the region late
Monday night and become nearly centered over the region by
Tuesday morning. Prime radiational cooling will result in morning
lows in the upper teens over northwest Tennessee to lower 20s
over northeast Mississippi. An areawide freeze watch remains in
effect.
Temperatures will moderate by midweek as surface high pressure
slides east and return flow sets up over the region. The region
can expect benign weather and above normal temperatures to return
by late week as upper level high pressure builds across the Lower
Mississippi Valley.
&&
AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
A tight pressure gradient ahead of a fast moving cold front will
keep surface and 2000ft winds elevated and gusty. LLWS in excess
of 40 kts will affect all terminals prior to 00z until the front
crosses each terminal. FL020 winds will remain elevated around
30 kts, but ease enough to remove it from the TAF after 03z.
Surface winds will veer from southwest to northeast, but remain
gusty well after thunderstorms end. Confidence on timing of
thunderstorms is medium to high for the line of storms to
traverse quickly from west to east. Visibilities will tank as the
line of storms crosses each terminal, with a chance of a brief
period of MVFR ceilings post FROPA, particularly at MKL, JBR, and
TUP. Confidence is too low to fill this deck in at MEM due to
model disagreement.
DNM
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Fire weather concerns will remain low for the next couple of
days. A widespread shot of wetting rain is expected late Sunday
afternoon through Sunday evening as a line of thunderstorms moves
across the Mid-South, followed by much colder temperatures for
early next week. Above normal temperatures will return by late
week, however, relative humidity will remain in the 40 percent
range.
&&
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
MOZ113-115.
MS...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MSZ001>017-020>024.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for MSZ001>015-
020>022.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
