01/08/2026
So, Iām sure you have come across social media posts hyping potential winter weather later this month. Letās do a little Weather 101 and explain how pattern recognition works rather than just throwing out maps with little-to-no context.
If you have followed weather for any period, you have likely heard of global teleconnections that forecasters look at for suggestions on long-range weather patterns. Terms such as the (-NAO) a.k.a. Greenland Block is used frequently and has become popular both in meteorology and in the mainstream media. For us here in the Southeast, one teleconnection we monitor is the Pacific-North America (PNA) teleconnection that is designed to illustrate the kind of upper level pattern established along the West Coast of North America.
A (-PNA) correlates with a trough along the West Coastā¦which has been prominent over the past week or so. California has been getting a lot of rain recently due to this.
A (+PNA) correlates to high pressure aloft, quiet weather.
If you look at the side-by-side graphic posted, this is based on this afternoonās European Model Ensembles showing the teleconnection (left) and the projected upper level pattern (right). You can clearly see the current -PNA established but as we go through the next 7-10 days, the teleconnection is going moderately positive (Between 1-2 positive sigma) and will remain in that state before slowly dropping toward neutral in about 14 days.
The 500 mb pattern for next Wednesday (Day 7) matches strongly with the +PNA pattern. Notices the heights in California are rising and also notice how the heights are lowering along the Mississippi River.
When it comes to history of notable Southeast US winter weather events, a +PNA is firmly established most of the time. The result? Airmasses and upper level energy is allowed to dig southeast creating a sharp trough axis. Then as the energy rounds the trough axis, the contrast between cold air and warmer, Atlantic Basin moisture sets up a battle zone that storm systems like to follow and amplify.
Our forecasters see zero evidence of a winter weather event right now in the 7-10 Day range but the teleconnections, as of right now, is indeed what you want to see in order to pull something off in the long term.
Our suggestion to you as responsible forecasters is to tune out the noise that you see on social media about storms 8,9,10 days out. The process of seeing deterministic solutions shift every six hours can be exhausting at the least.
