11/20/2025
Beware the ides of Arrieta, et al?
MIKE BURKE
Allegany Communications Sports
Whoa! The Baltimore Orioles came out swinging, making a rare November trade that registers “MAJOR” on the trade meter and triggers the potential for more major trades or acquisitions to come.
Having traded 26-year-old starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez to the Los Angeles Angels for 31-year-old slugging outfielder Taylor Ward, likely a one-year rental, President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Mike Elias is showing his boss David Rubenstein that he’s here to play this winter just as the controlling partner had told him to be. Now, whether he’s playing with all of his marbles or all of the cards in his deck remains to be seen, but let’s just see where this goes.
The deal that came late Tuesday night was a double-take deal because even though the Orioles receive the slugging right-handed outfielder they need, on the surface it seems pretty lopsided in favor of the Angels with a (still) potential ace in Rodriguez.
Furthermore, Ward is a free agent after the 2026 season, and Baltimore, which has been looking to add pitching, gave up a potential ace who isn't a free agent until after 2029.
And that’s the rub: The 2018 first-round draft pick hasn’t thrown a pitch in a big league game since July 31, 2024, as he missed the entire ‘25 season due to elbow and lat injuries. His 2024 season was also cut short due to right elbow and lat discomfort.
The Orioles messaging here is clear – if he’s ever going to be healthy again, they don’t have time to wait.
Rodriguez recorded a 4.11 ERA and 20 wins in 43 starts over his first two MLB seasons (2023 and ‘24), but he posted a 3.86 ERA in 20 outings in ‘24. And that’s when the persistent injury issues derailed his progression and, seemingly, the Orioles’ patience.
“You miss a year and two months and we’ve got to be realistic about that, it’s not something that we’re planning around very heavily,” Elias said last week at the General Managers meetings in Las Vegas. “This guy hasn’t pitched since August 2024, and planning around that is something that we’ve got to hedge against.”
Trading him to the other side of the country is a pretty effective hedge.
In the end, though, maybe it was just time for the Orioles and Rodriguez to merely part company. Only they know for sure.
The reality of the trade is Taylor Ward is a power-hitting outfielder who is ready to go, which fills one of the team’s biggest needs. Rodriguez has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter, but has an injury history as long as Tyler O’Neill’s (did I just say that?).
Thus, because the Orioles are in such dire need of pitching, they felt they couldn’t afford to have to rely on Grayson Rodriguez to A.) be ready and to B.) stay healthy this season, a season which the Orioles ownership, front office and fans fully expect to be a postseason season in wake of last season’s disaster.
The truth is, the Orioles don’t have many years left with this so-called core group, so the time to win is now. If Rodriguez goes on to become the next Mike Mussina (there are similarities … when he pitches) or even Jake Arrieta, Eduardo Rodriguez, Kevin Gausman, so be it. The Orioles don’t have time to take that risk.
Nobody enjoys trading four years for one year, but that’s where the Orioles are. Sure, the trade itself is a risk, but it’s a win-now risk, and it gives you the impression that the club is going to be very, very busy this offseason, with Elias perhaps ready to take the billionaire Orioles owners up on their offer of spending more of their money. Maybe a lot more.
If you’re an Orioles fan, you either like this trade, hate it, or both, which is entirely possible to do.
You like it because it’s a win-now risk with this group of players. You hate it because trading four years for one year is incredibly risky math and because the ghosts of Curt Schilling, Pete Harnisch, Steve Finley and Arrieta still haunt.
Nonetheless, the possibilities for what Elias and the Orioles do next are enticing as hell.
Mike Burke writes about sports and other stuff for Allegany Communications. He began covering sports for the Prince George’s Sentinel in 1981 and joined the Cumberland Times-News sports staff in 1984, serving as sports editor for over 30 years. Contact him at [email protected]. Follow him on X
