Weather In A Nutshell

Weather In A Nutshell Weather In A Nutshell's goal is to cover the weather near the NYC area and New Jersey! I aim to provide short range, medium range and long range weather.

Winter weather enthusiast. Forecasts/snow maps are independent/mine 😎 DM me for a personal forecast!

The first few days of June may start gloomy. Guidance says it may not get above 65 for highs for the first few days due ...
05/27/2026

The first few days of June may start gloomy. Guidance says it may not get above 65 for highs for the first few days due to some unsettled rainy weather. Though after this we'll finally be consistently in summer weather mode.

Before I start the Weekly Update, I want to reflect on the soldiers who made the ultimate sacrifice defending this count...
05/25/2026

Before I start the Weekly Update, I want to reflect on the soldiers who made the ultimate sacrifice defending this country. I wish everyone a safe and reflective Memorial Day.

Weekly Update: Warmer week, but still unsettled and wet.

Today: Warmer with Patches of dense fog in the morning with filtered sunshine in the afternoon, cloudier south. A downpour with a rumble of thunder possible for SNJ and Del-Marva. Stay away from beaches, there is a rip current risk!

NYC: 72F
Bergenfield: 79F
Metuchen: 75F
Tom's River: 76F
Freehold: 77F
Wildwood: 78F
Philly: 76F
Vineland: 77F
Islip: 69F (nice)
Sussex: 78F
Poconos: 73F
Hartford: 78F
Providence: 74F
Baltimore: 74F

Tuesday: Sunnier north, cloudier south. Dense fog in Long Island, and patches of fog in New England. A passing shower possible south as well. Rip current risk, avoid the beach! Humid south, dry air north.

NYC: 78F
Bergenfield: 83F
Metuchen: 81F
Tom's River: 82F
Freehold: 79F
Wildwood: 76F
Philly: 83F
Vineland: 81F
Islip: 62F
Sussex: 81F
Poconos: 78F
Hartford: 83F
Providence: 82F
Baltimore: 80F

Wednesday: Morning Fog. Cloudy and humid with scattered thunderstorms all day. Hail, flash flooding, lots of lightning and strong winds are possible with some storms.

NYC: 78F
Bergenfield: 81F
Metuchen: 75F
Toms River: 78F
Freehold: 79F
Wildwood: 85F (Feels Like 92F)
Philly: 81F
Vineland: 83F
Islip: 75F
Sussex: 76F
Poconos: 79F
Hartford: 85F
Providence: 80F
Baltimore: 90F (Feels Like 97F)

Thursday: Partly Cloudy with some scattered showers east. Less humid.

NYC: 75F
Bergenfield: 72F
Metuchen: 76F
Toms River: 81F
Freehold: 78F
Wildwood: 75F
Philly: 75F
Vineland: 80F
Islip: 78F
Sussex: 72F
Poconos: 64F
Hartford: 73F
Providence: 68F
Baltimore: 80F

Friday: Sunny to Partly Cloudy. Evening Light Rain for New England.

NYC: 80F
Bergenfield: 78F
Metuchen: 78F
Toms River: 80F
Freehold: 79F
Wildwood: 77F
Philly: 78F
Vineland: 78F
Islip: 78F
Sussex: 75F
Poconos: 73F
Hartford: 70F
Providence: 68F
Baltimore: 78F

Weekly Update: Unsettled weather this week!Today: Filtered Sunshine and clouds mixed with light rain in SNJ and Del-Marv...
05/11/2026

Weekly Update: Unsettled weather this week!

Today: Filtered Sunshine and clouds mixed with light rain in SNJ and Del-Marva. As well as scattered light to moderate showers N&W.
NYC: 62F
Bergenfield: 62F
Metuchen: 63F
Tom's River: 60F
Freehold: 61F
Wildwood: 53F
Philly: 62F
Vineland: 60F
Islip: 58F
Sussex: 63F
Poconos: 60F
Hartford: 65F
Providence: 60F
Baltimore: 62F

Tuesday: Completely Sunny and maybe a cloud or two. Still cool.

NYC: 64F
Bergenfield: 65F
Metuchen: 65F
Tom's River: 65F
Freehold: 65F
Wildwood: 66F
Philly: 66F
Vineland: 66F
Islip: 57F
Sussex: 62F
Poconos: 58F
Hartford: 60F
Providence: 62F
Baltimore: 66F

Wednesday: Cloudy in the morning with peeks of sun possible south of NYC. Breezy on the coast. Though scattered non-severe thunderstorms N&W. Warmer and humid. Chilly for New England.

NYC: 63F
Bergenfield: 68F
Metuchen: 71F
Toms River: 68F
Freehold: 68F
Wildwood: 68F
Philly: 71F
Vineland: 74F
Islip: 56F
Sussex: 62F
Poconos: 59F
Hartford: 52F
Providence: 55F
Baltimore: 74F

Thursday: Cloudy with Scattered non-severe thunderstorms. 1-2 inches of rain possible for interior New England.

NYC: 71F
Bergenfield: 67F
Metuchen: 63F
Toms River: 71F
Freehold: 70F
Wildwood: 65F
Philly: 62F
Vineland: 61F
Islip: 69F (nice)
Sussex: 59F
Poconos: 55F
Hartford: 65F
Providence: 68F
Baltimore: 56F

Friday: Cloudy with scattered showers especially for coastal areas and east, breezy N&W. Rain continues for New England.

NYC: 66F
Bergenfield: 63F
Metuchen: 62F
Toms River: 65F
Freehold: 66F
Wildwood: 58F
Philly: 61F
Vineland: 60F
Islip: 60F
Sussex: 57F
Poconos: 51F
Hartford: 57F
Providence: 59F
Baltimore: 63F

Weekly Update: Happy first week of summer! ☀️🌞🌡️🏖️Oh wait it's Mid April. Tuesday: Completely Sunny and summer-like. An ...
04/13/2026

Weekly Update: Happy first week of summer! ☀️🌞🌡️🏖️

Oh wait it's Mid April.

Tuesday: Completely Sunny and summer-like. An evening non-severe storm N&W and New England.

NYC: 82F
Bergenfield: 86F
Metuchen: 87F
Tom's River: 87F
Freehold: 88F
Wildwood: 87F
Philly: 86F
Vineland: 87F
Islip: 73F
Sussex: 83F
Poconos: 80F
Hartford: 82F
Providence: 80F
Baltimore: 87F

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy, with a stray chance of a non-severe thunderstorm especially N&W. Morning fog for coastal LI. Slightly humid. Our first 90 degree readings of the season possible!

NYC: 86F
Bergenfield: 85F
Metuchen: 89F (Feels Like 90F)
Toms River: 90F (Feels Like 91F)
Freehold: 90F (Feels Like 91F)
Wildwood: 89F (Feels Like 90F)
Philly: 89F (Feels Like 90F)
Vineland: 90F (Feels Like 91F)
Islip: 77F
Sussex: 79F
Poconos: 79F
Hartford: 85F
Providence: 79F
Baltimore: 90F

Thursday: Filtered Sunshine, and less humid.

NYC: 88F
Bergenfield: 87F
Metuchen: 87F
Toms River: 90F
Freehold: 89F
Wildwood: 88F
Philly: 90F
Vineland: 89F
Islip: 87F
Sussex: 82F
Poconos: 78F
Hartford: 87F
Providence: 86F
Baltimore: 81F

Friday: Partly to Mostly Cloudy with scattered thunderstorms for New England.

NYC: 83F
Bergenfield: 79F
Metuchen: 77F
Toms River: 79F
Freehold: 82F
Wildwood: 82F
Philly: 79F
Vineland: 81F
Islip: 81F
Sussex: 71F
Poconos: 69F (nice)
Hartford: 82F
Providence: 79F
Baltimore: 74F

Easter Forecast: In advance I hope everyone who celebrates has a great Easter. Some think it is going to be a washout......
04/03/2026

Easter Forecast:

In advance I hope everyone who celebrates has a great Easter. Some think it is going to be a washout...I disagree. It'll be foggy with a couple hours of rain before drying out and even sun returning for the afternoon. With highs in the Upper 50s to Low 60s!

EARLY APRIL PATTERN LOCKED IN?Warm weather returns early next week. Tuesday and Wednesday we'll be back to 70s and 80s. ...
03/27/2026

EARLY APRIL PATTERN LOCKED IN?

Warm weather returns early next week. Tuesday and Wednesday we'll be back to 70s and 80s.

I do see a decent signal for a severe weather threat for Wednesday. I think a low chance of a tornado, and gusty winds could be in play for the afternoon and evening.

After that a front moves through but there's a chance we could see 70s return for the weekend. So April or at least the early part is gonna be a battle of cold vs. warm. With cold fronts and warm ups cycling every few days.

Today we're reaching Upper 70s and even reaching 80 across the straight minus the absolute immediate coast where the oce...
03/10/2026

Today we're reaching Upper 70s and even reaching 80 across the straight minus the absolute immediate coast where the ocean waters are still very cold. A much needed warm up to make up for the brutal relentless winter we had.

After a cloudier but still a warm day tomorrow, overnight a cold front with some embedded thunderstorms will cool us off.

Will 70s and 80s be gone for long?

Sadly the answer is yes...

After Thursday a cool flow will dominate once more. While 40s and 50s will still be our highs. Below average temperatures or near average at best are likely for the rest of March. This right now will be our solo major warm up of the month.

April we should naturally and obviously see some more opportunities but as much as I wish this was it for winter temperatures it's still far from over.

Though luckily snowfall looks pretty unlikely for the rest of the month.

FINAL CALL SNOWFALL MAP FOR TOMORROW INTO MONDAY'S HISTORIC BLIZZARD. I am not one to hype storms...but this one has the...
02/21/2026

FINAL CALL SNOWFALL MAP FOR TOMORROW INTO MONDAY'S HISTORIC BLIZZARD.

I am not one to hype storms...but this one has the potential to be a top 10 snowstorm in this area of all time (especially for Long Island & New Jersey) 2-4" per hour bands will set up in New Jersey after sunset. Howling winds, and blowing snow will make travel impossible tomorrow night. High snow drifts will form, so make sure you have enough food, batteries, gas to power up snow blowers, and POWER UP YOUR PHONES. Power outages are possible. THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE. Today's models and current observations remain dead set of a crazy storm tomorrow night.

These are my highest jackpot totals I have ever put out.

The timeline and a more deep dive analysis of what to expect and why I picked these totals could be seen in my last post. But if you have any questions shoot me a personal message or comment down below.

FIRST BLIZZARD IN 10 YEARS TO HIT OUR REGION FULL TIMELINE AND FIRST CALL SNOW MAP BELOWYep, Models are now all in agree...
02/21/2026

FIRST BLIZZARD IN 10 YEARS TO HIT OUR REGION FULL TIMELINE AND FIRST CALL SNOW MAP BELOW

Yep, Models are now all in agreement that this will likely be the worst storms since at least Winter Storm Jonas or the January 2016 blizzard we had. As well as our first blizzard in exactly 10 years. 00z Models have been super bullish tonight, coming up with absolutely bonkers snow totals, as well as making the storm longer duration.

But this is my forecast.

TIMELINE:
Precip on the radar should arrive tomorrow morning for NJ, overnight for SEPA and Del Marva area, with some virga to overcome. Light stuff before noon. Snow starts to get steadier and starts to stick around the afternoon. Any rain in coastal SNJ or Delaware changes over to snow. Bands start to form around Mid afternoon, and by sunset things start to really deteriorate.

1-3" hour snow rates batters Coastal NJ, Delaware and Long Island for 12 whole hours. Blizzard conditions are possible throughout the night. 20 to 30 mph winds gusting to 40-50 mph.

1" inch per hour snow rates are possible throughout the area during the night, but the heaviest will be concentrated to the coast. A dry slot will set up Baltimore on west, as well as East Central PA, hindering some totals somewhat.

Meanwhile in New England, 1-3" snowfall hour rates get into the equation around sunrise.

By mid morning snowfall remains steady but breaking up and departing. Though snow showers and pockets of moderate snow will linger throughout the day. Big snows depart New England Monday afternoon.

Tomorrow's storm concerns me a lot for coastal areas. As damaged or vulnerable docks from the ice could take a beating as well as a high risk of coastal flooding.

SNOW MAP DESCRIPTION:
JACKPOT 15-20" with locally 2 feet or more in localized areas:
AREAS AFFECTED: I-195 south, Jersey Shore, Delaware Shore, Ocean City.

No mixing, heavy snowfall rates for many and numerous hours, blizzard conditions, thundersnow is even possible. Could be one of the worst storms to hit this region in a very long time. Definitely one to remember.

10-15 ZONE:
Bands and 1-3" inch an hour rates will still hit here as well as Blizzard conditions at times. This place will get very heavy snowfall rates but not as heavy as the southern zone.

8-12 ZONE:
Some isolated 1-3" inch an hour rate bands will occur here overnight...but it may be far and in between, as more like a steady 0.5-1" per hour rates are more likely here.

4-8 ZONE:
Areas near Baltimore/DC and East Central PA will see a sharp gradient. 5 miles away could see 10" while 5 miles more west could see 4" I think this will be the case here. An inverted through may swing by and drop a localized thin strip of 10" somewhere in here...but again most will see just a plowable event from this.

In conclusion please prepare for one of the worst storms to hit this region in at least 10 years, blizzard conditions are very possible for a large portion of the coast. Snow will be very wet, so shoveling will be tough. Stock up on salt, get gas for your snow blowers. This storm will be a big one.

BREAKING ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR MOST ON SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR IMMEDIAT...
02/20/2026

BREAKING ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR MOST ON SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR IMMEDIATE COAST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION

So it looks like we're coming closer to an answer to this weekend and snow haters may want to shield their eyes. Not gonna lie, shoveling snow does suck and warmer weather is awesome...look on the bright side one more month or less until we get days like that.

But right now we're gonna be dealing with yet another winter storm this weekend.

The GFS has been leading the way, not changing much the past few days and finally the overnight models are starting to follow suit with it. The offshore models suddenly jumped hundreds of miles west to put at least a significant/plowable snowfall for the immediate coast.

Some models have the start of the storm Sunday afternoon, some starting around the evening. But Sunday evening or overnight into Monday 1-3" inch per hour rates are very possible. Though if the storm trends a bit more offshore, totals may back off to as little as light to moderate snowfall for NJ. Jackpot remains the immediate coast due to that area having the heaviest snowfall and bands, and due to the track mixing will be kept to a minimum. The immediate SE coast of NJ may start as rain for a couple hours before changing over as precip gets moderate and steady.

Due to the low rapidly deepening, winds will be an issue. 20 to 30 mph sustain winds are doable, gusting to 40 to 50 mph winds. Blizzard Warnings could be issued along the coast if models don't trend significantly more offshore. Though due to the wet nature of the snow, blowing snow will not be an issue.

This storm could be long duration and the low could stall or invert, which would cause a localized surprise somewhere along the Jersey Shore or Long Island.

So basically now I think the immediate Jersey Shore could AT LEAST get significant snowfall. 4" at the absolute minimum...a major snowfall with near or at blizzard conditions at maximum.

Inland areas also have a chance to cash in with significant to major snowfall like SEPA, Baltimore/DC, Philly, NW areas and even in New England to Boston. But the floor is lower in those areas especially for NW and Inland areas.

A snow map will be issued later today or early tomorrow. I am watching trends very closely.

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