
09/19/2025
š Wait⦠Didnāt the Fed lower rates? Why did mortgage rates go up?! (and then down and then up and then down again?!)
A common question every time the Fed cuts rates.
So letās clear the air š
Yes, the Fed did cut rates this week (by 0.25%), bringing the federal funds rate to around 4.00ā4.25%. And yes, they signaled more cuts are coming later this year.
But hereās the curveball:
š Mortgage rates? Some actually went up after the cut.
If that feels backwards, you're not alone. But it's actually textbook market behavior. Let me explain like I would if we were sitting down over coffee:
š”First, mortgage rates and Fed rates are not the same.
The Fed controls the overnight lending rate (thatās what banks charge each other.)
Mortgage rates? Theyāre tied more closely to long-term bond yields (specifically the 10-year Treasury.) And those are influenced by how investors feel about things like:
šFuture inflation
šEconomic growth
šGlobal markets
šConfidence in the Fed's next moves
So when the Fed cuts rates, the bond market might go:
āHmm⦠this must mean inflation is still sticky or the economy isnāt cooling fast enough,ā which ironically can cause long-term yields to rise and that pushes mortgage rates up.
š§ Hereās the part most people miss:
Itās super common to see mortgage rates tick up temporarily after a Fed cut.
The markets are processing the Fedās tone, not just the action. Once things settle and inflation shows more signs of cooling, rates usually ease back down.
So if you're shopping for a home or planning to refi, donāt panic. This is part of the cycle.
What Iām telling my clients:
ā
If you're in the market, watch the trend, not the daily headlines.
ā
If a rate pops up that works for your goals donāt overthink it. Lock it in.
ā
If not? Stay patient. Thereās a strong case for rates drifting downward.
The bottom line?
Rate cuts donāt work like light switches. Theyāre more like dimmers and the light takes a second to adjust.
Want to talk strategy for your specific scenario? Email me at [email protected].
Angela McNeil - Independent Mortgage Loan Officer - NMLS #2535443
AeraVela Legacy Partners
www.aeravelalending.com