Storm Chaser Larry Morrell

08/26/2025

With a lack of clickbait content on the computer models, misinformation has shifted to claims about the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season.

As we've often repeated, hurricane season is a marathon not a sprint. The experts over at NHC only forecast for the next 7 days. Stick to getting your information from reliable fact-based sources.

08/23/2025

A stationary front will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to central Georgia. The primary area of concern today will be between the I-75/I-16 corridors and I-20 corridor.

08/23/2025

08/22/2025

08/22/25 1pm
Flash flooding is possible this afternoon into evening, Remember if you encounter flooded roadways, turn around and dont drown:

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0973
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1153 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and
far northeastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221552Z - 222152Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving storms will increase in coverage
through the afternoon, with areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates
becoming likely. Flash flooding is expected, especially in
urban/low-lying areas.

Discussion...Scattered, shallow convection has persisted across
much of central South Carolina this morning downstream of a weak
mid-level trough along the southern Appalachians. Over the past
hour or so, deeper, more intense convection has materialized
mainly along weak front extending from southern Georgia
east-northeastward near the South Carolina coastline. The deeper
convection has materialized in a very favorable environment for
heavy rainfall (2-2.3 inch PW values, 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE, weak
steering flow aloft). Areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates have
materialized near the Charleston Metro area (including 0.9 inch in
15 minutes at WFO Charleston and 2.25 inches in 30 minutes at KCHS
recently).

Over time, convection is expected to deepen and expand in coverage
across the discussion area as surface heating promotes continued
destabilization along with convergence along the aforementioned
front. Heavy rain may also concentrate along any subtle
sea-breeze boundaries that develop along the Georgia and Florida
coastlines. Additional areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates are
expected that should promote inundation especially in
sensitive/urban locales. Convection should also be slow-moving
given the relatively weak kinematics for steering flow aloft. FFG
thresholds vary across the discussion area and peak at around 3
inches/hr in less-sensitive spots, although these rates could
still be exceeded occasionally given the moisture-rich environment
in place supporting convective activity. Several instances of
flash flooding are likely in this scenario.

08/22/2025

August 22nd, 6:15 AM ET: A stalled front will bring another round of numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area today. While locally heavy rain is possible anywhere today, the heaviest rain and greater chance for flash flooding will be across southwest Georgia this afternoon into the evening.

08/20/2025

August 20th 3:00pm ET - Tropical Update.

There is no tropical threat to the Northeast Gulf Coast from any of the three systems that we are currently monitoring over the Atlantic. Even so, the peak of hurricane season continues for the next 6-8 weeks, so check back regularly and make sure you are prepared.

08/18/2025

As of 2PM EDT August 18, 2025, the Tropical Weather Outlook produced by the National Hurricane Center highlights two systems: 1) Major Hurricane Erin near the SE Bahamas; 2) Tropical Wave moving westward across the Eastern Atlantic. 🌀🔮

Erin remains a NON-threat for the Tri-State area as the forecast track takes it northward, well east of Florida & Georgia. 🙅‍♂️

The tropical wave farther east has a medium or 60% chance of development over the next 7 days somewhere near the Lesser Antilles. 🟠

It is far too early to determine the evolution of this wave and what it could mean for us, locally. Regardless, regularly monitor the forecasts for continued updates, and use this time to review your hurricane plans. 📝

08/17/2025

James Spann explains in this post how the models are used with hurricanes (in general forcast to be exact)

TROPICS/MEDIUM RANGE: This is ensemble output from the European global model out to 10 days (240 hours). You always need to look at the ensembles when reviewing weather possibilities 7-10 days out... never use deterministic output.

A global model like this starts with observations of the atmosphere (temperature, pressure, winds, etc.) from around the world. Since measurements aren’t perfect, the model slightly tweaks the starting conditions dozens of different ways. Perturbations.

The model is then run about 50 times (the “ensemble members”), each with those tiny changes. As the forecast goes farther out in time, the members start to spread apart. If they cluster tightly, confidence is high. If they scatter widely, the future weather is more uncertain.

Meteorologists then look at the ensemble mean (average of all runs), the spread (how different they are), and sometimes the extremes/outliers to understand risks.

The point here? At this point no EC ensemble member shows a meaningful tropical system in the Gulf for the next 10 days. Could this change? Sure; the peak of the hurricane continues into early October; we have a long way to go.

But the week ahead looks quiet and calm in the Gulf.

08/16/2025

08/16/2025

Well that escalated quickly

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near 917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued
at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM AST...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...255 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

Latest forecast: Hurricanes.gov/