Storm Chaser Larry Morrell

07/09/2025

07/07/2025

So many memories of this event. The Albany flood of 94

Today in history 🗓
7 July 1994: The remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto finally departed, having drowned parts of Alabama, Georgia and Florida under several feet of water. Enterprise, AL recorded an incredible 21.58 inches of rain from 1-7 July. At its peak, flood waters covered a total of 900,000 acres.

07/07/2025

Hopefully a break from all this heat!

07/06/2025

Below is the exact timeline of forecast alerts for the Texas flooding.

So many people are asking how this evolved. Below is how the forecast was prepped and handled via the NWS.

TIMELINE:

TUESDAY - THURSDAY MORNING
FORECASTS FROM THE NWS IN SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN
MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING

1:18PM THURSDAY:
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THRU FRIDAY AM
THE FLOOD WATCH MENTIONED UP TO 7” OF RAIN
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RIVERS FLOODING.
KERR COUNTY WAS INCLUDED

6:10PM THURSDAY:
SPECIAL DISCUSSION ISSUED
MENTIONED:
“CONCERNING TRENDS” “FLASH FLOODING LIKELY”
“RAINFALL RATES HIGHER THAN 3 INCHES PER HOUR”

⸻

TIMELINE OF FORECAST AND ALERTS
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY

1:06AM FRIDAY:
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR KERR COUNTY
“CONSIDERABLE” TAG WAS ISSUED WITH THIS WARNING.
THIS TYPICALLY TRIGGERS WIRELESS EMERGENCY ALERTS
ON CELL PHONES

2:28AM FRIDAY:
FLASH FLOOD COMMUNICATION
THE NWS MENTIONED UP TO 5” OF RAIN HAD FALLEN
AND FLASH FLOODING HAD LIKELY BEGUN IN KERR COUNTY

3:02AM FRIDAY:
FLASH FLOOD COMMUNICATION
THE NWS MENTIONED A “DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD EVENT
IS UNFOLDING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KERR COUNTY”

⸻

TIMELINE OF FORECAST AND ALERTS
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY

4:03AM FRIDAY:
FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY ISSUED
FOR KERR COUNTY
A VERY SMALL FRACTION OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
GET UPGRADED TO THIS LEVEL

4:20AM FRIDAY:
GUADALUPE RIVER AT HUNT
REACHES MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
MAJOR FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET.
IT CRESTED AT 29.45 FEET AT 4:35AM

06/29/2025

Just something to keep an eye on this week.

June 29, 9:20 AM EDT - Late this week or next weekend, a remnant frontal boundary has a low chance (20%) of tropical development near the Gulf Coast and/or SE U.S. Atlantic coast. The wet pattern during the upcoming week will be unrelated. Check back in a few days for the latest on development potential.

06/26/2025

Few pics from earlier this afternoon 06/26/25.. northern Brooks Co Ga

06/26/2025

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Alabama
Georgia
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1000
PM until 400 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...The environment will support a relatively long-duration
potential of severe storms into the overnight, with a loosely
organized complex of storms moving generally south-southwestward
tonight out of South Carolina into Georgia, while additional storms
continue across southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. Wind damage
is the primary hazard.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest
of Auburn AL to 35 miles north northeast of Brunswick GA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...WW 461...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
07020.

...Guyer

06/26/2025

Severe thunderstorm watch likley

Mesoscale Discussion 1448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Southern to southeast Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

Valid 260121Z - 260315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
continues.

SUMMARY...A loosely organized MCS will migrate southeast into
southeast and southern Georgia through the evening hours. Downstream
watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...An outflow-dominant MCS continues to push
south/southeast across southern SC. Although most measured wind
gusts have been in the 40-55 mph range, a few severe gusts have been
noted along with multiple reports of wind damage. Additionally, new
convective cores continue to develop immediately behind the outflow
boundary and are supporting swaths of stronger winds within the
line. Downstream of the MCS, surface temperatures are falling with
the onset of nocturnal cooling, but rich low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) will likely modulate the influence
of low-level stabilization to some degree. Additionally, a reservoir
of around 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE remains downstream across southern
GA that has been relatively untouched by afternoon convection. The
expectation is that the MCS will likely continue to propagate
southwestward into this reservoir along a weak confluence axis
and/or along a sea-breeze boundary moving inland from the coast.
Damaging gusts with a few severe wind swaths will remain the primary
hazard. Some uncertainty regarding the longevity of this threat
remains given the surging outflow and increasing MLCIN heading later
into the overnight hours, but downstream watch issuance is likely if
the MCS can maintain intensity over the next hour or so as it nears
the edge of WW 459.

..Moore.. 06/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

06/25/2025

Hail in western Colquitt Co just earlier

06/25/2025

Mesoscale Discussion 1438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...FL Panhandle into south GA and far southeast AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251958Z - 252200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Additional storm development is possible through late
afternoon, with a continued threat of damaging wind and isolated
hail.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms are ongoing this afternoon
across the FL Panhandle into southwest GA, with additional cumulus
development noted northeast of the ongoing convection. Relatively
steep lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft are supporting strong
to extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE generally in the 3000-4000 J/kg
range. Deep-layer flow is rather weak, though modest midlevel
northeasterlies on the periphery of an upper ridge will support
20-25 kt of effective shear through the afternoon, which may support
modest storm organization given the very favorable instability.

Potential will continue this afternoon for southwestward moving
clusters capable of damaging downburst/outflow winds and isolated
hail. There is some potential for loosely organized outflow-driven
clusters to develop, which could produce more concentrated areas of
wind damage, though this scenario remains somewhat uncertain.

Uncertainty regarding severe coverage renders the need for
short-term watch issuance uncertain, but trends will be monitored
for an uptick in coverage through the remainder of the afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/25/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...

06/24/2025

Posted 06/24/25 2pm
Updated outlook for Tomrrow 06/25/25
Theres a "Slight risk" for a large portion of Ga tomrrow. Damaging winds are the main threat. Timing appears to be in the afternoon.