Ag Bull Media

12/18/2025

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We unpack why feedlot placements keep falling, how heavier carcass weights mask some supply tightness, and where 2025 prices could land if demand stays steady. We also cut through noise on imports, the Mexico border shift, and dairy buyout rumors with history and context.

• November placements lower and annual totals sharply down
• 2025 fed cattle supplies likely tighter than 2024
• Demand steady as baseline risk, not a driver lower
• Heavier carcass weights boost output per head
• Front‑end supply recalculated for longer days on feed
• Argentina small, Brazil moderate import growth
• Mexico shifts from feeder exports toward feeding at home
• Cow culling falls, herd transition to slow growth
• Dairy buyout history and low odds of a shock today
• Practical read on prices, leverage, and risk

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12/05/2025

We unpack why China’s soybean purchase timeline keeps sliding, how the market is reacting, and who should be accountable. We dig into border biosecurity worries, beef policy levers, the coming Fed move, crop insurance changes, and a likely aid bridge to 2026.

• shifting claims on China’s soybean buys and missing signatures
• soybean futures weakness and market skepticism
• screwworm concerns and quieter agency updates at the border
• cattle rally versus talk of tariff cuts and import levers
• USMCA review signals, Mexico demand, and retaliation risks
• Farm Bill 2.0 delays and SNAP’s dominant share
• E15 year-round push, RFS volumes, and 45Z SAF uncertainty
• crop insurance rule changes and prevent plant buy-up removal
• rumored $12–14bn farmer aid and timing of payments
• high fertilizer costs, planting talk, and cash flow strain

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11/28/2025

Markets open after a CME outage as we track the odds of a December rate cut, soybean sales to China without a signed deal, and the shape of USDA’s bridge aid into 2026. We lay out the stakes on tariffs at the Supreme Court, biofuel rules, E15 delays, and Farm Bill 2.0 politics while cattle find a surprising bounce.

• Fed cut odds and leadership signals
• China soybean buys, enforcement, and price gaps
• USDA aid timing, scope, and funding risks
• Cotton and sorghum outlook with margin stress
• Deere guidance and machinery bottom watch
• India and Canada trade snags
• Food security reporting pause and SNAP recertification talk
• Supreme Court tariff case scenarios
• RFS, RINs, 45Z delays, and year-round E15
• Farm Bill 2.0 vote math and timelines
• Cattle border reopening, packer capacity, and price recovery
• Why Congress must codify to reduce court whiplash

All that for $25 a month. We’re up watching the markets 24 hours a day, so you don’t have to.

Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

www.agbull.com

11/27/2025

11/26/2025

🦃💯🤙

11/22/2025

Tyson Shuts Down Nebraska Beef Plant!

11/21/2025

We sprint through a volatile week in ag policy: Brazil tariff rollbacks, EU tariff rumors, labor and H‑2A shifts, aid program timing, RFS delays, border reopening signals, a bullish cattle-on-feed report, and breaking news on a Tyson beef plant closure.

• USDA and CFTC reporting cadence returning
• Brazil coffee and beef tariffs lifted to fight food prices
• Potential easing of EU food tariffs and NCBA concerns
• ICE de-emphasizing raids and H‑2A expansion, dairy left out
• Farm losses per acre and aid package design uncertainty
• Disaster program stage two and expected top-up payments
• RFS and RINs timing delays, 45Z uncertainty
• USDA communications balance and need for field listening
• US–Mexico border phased reopening and realistic cattle flows
• Fed cut odds falling and financing risks
• China soy commitments vs competitiveness and history
• Whole milk back to schools boosting dairy sentiment
• New WOTUS proposal reducing federal permitting burdens
• Cattle-on-feed bullish read overshadowed by Tyson closure

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11/09/2025

Wiesemeyer’s perspectives 🎤🤙

10/15/2025

Soybeans are trending in mainstream media!

09/27/2025

Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives
Trump Bucks 2.0
American Agriculture is being challenged.

Trade policy tensions create ripple effects across agricultural markets as Trump promises aid while China boycotts U.S. farm products. Secretary Rollins pres...