02/11/2026
Our latest paper is out, by postdoctoral researcher Dr. Guillaume Chandelier and our lab principal investigator, Dr. Jeremy Kiszka.
How could future climate scenarios affect the distribution of dolphins and porpoises in the North Atlantic by 2100?
In this paper just published in Ecological Indicators, we modeled the current and future distributions of 12 small cetacean species across the North Atlantic using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) under three CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5).
Our projections indicate a consistent poleward redistribution of all 12 species investigated by 2100. However, responses are not uniform: small cetaceans exhibit contrasting species-specific responses. Tropical regions are projected to become progressively less suitable, suggesting potential tropical desertification. In contrast, temperate zones emerge as key climate refugia, supporting an increasing number of species under future warming scenarios.
These results highlight the need to anticipate large-scale marine community reorganization and integrate climate-driven redistributions into ecosystem-based management strategies in the North Atlantic.
Read the full paper here (open access!): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X26000725
