06/22/2026
MONDAY WEATHER: 🌧️️Rain will become likely today, continuing into tonight, and there’s a “slight risk” for severe thunderstorms, as defined by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. A “slight risk” is a level two of five threat, and means there’s a 15% chance of severe weather occurring in any area. The threat is damaging wind gusts. We may see some thunderstorms early this morning, then scattered thunderstorms should begin to develop by shortly after lunch time, and will become more widespread by late afternoon or early evening. The activity will wind down by midnight or so. Rain totals will depend on where the heaviest thunderstorms set up, as is almost always the case this time of year. But most areas should see appreciable rainfall, as a very moist atmosphere is in place — maybe an inch of rain for most everyone, with higher totals for areas that see repeat thunderstorms.
☀️THE REST OF THE WEEK: Much better weather returns tomorrow, with a mix of clouds and sun and a high of just 79 degrees. We’ll push back into the mid 80s on Wednesday with lots of sunshine, and then we’ll return to a typical summer pattern with daily rain chances and temperatures in the mid 80s. Rain chances will be relatively slight on Thursday, increasing as we head into the weekend.
🌦️ THE WEEKEND: Pretty typical summer weather will set up for the weekend, with temperatures in the mid 80s Friday and Saturday and chances of thunderstorms both days. There’ll be about a 50/50 chance of scattered thunderstorms each day. Sunday will be hotter, with temperatures topping out around 90 degrees.
FURTHER OUT: Next week looks like the hottest week of the summer season thus far, with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and slight chances of scattered thunderstorms at times. The heat should begin to retreat as we get into the 4th of July holiday period, with perhaps a wetter pattern taking shape.
💧 RIVER CONDITIONS: Below-average streamflows continue. The Big South Fork River was flowing at about 150 cubic feet per second (cfs) last night, and Clear Fork at just about 20 cfs. Water clarity is excellent. Water temperatures are topping out in the mid 80s each afternoon. The rivers are excellent for swimming at the moment. However, declining stream conditions are likely tomorrow. For paddlers, the National Park Service maintains a description of river levels here: https://www.nps.gov/biso/planyourvisit/riverlevels.htm
