Cedar Valley Storm Chasing, Rochester, MN (2025)

11/07/2025

Most recent update.

11/07/2025

BREAKING: After nearly 208 years, the Farmers' Almanac will end production. The 2026 edition will be its final version.

11/06/2025

Still a few days out.. our AI says this has a 35% chance of playing out. Up from 20% earlier....

This could be a big mess

11/05/2025

Here comes the snow!

11/05/2025

🌧️ Weekend Midwest Weather Update ❄️

A developing low pressure system will track across the Midwest Saturday, bringing a mix of rain and possibly some snow before it exits late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Most of us will start out with rain as temperatures sit in the upper 30s to low 40s during the afternoon. As the system pulls east, colder air aloft will move in and could cause the rain to mix with or briefly change to snow toward evening. How quickly that colder air moves in will make all the difference.

The GFS (American model) has been showing a faster cool-down, switching rain to snow earlier and even hinting at some slushy 1–2″ totals in spots. The European model (EURO) keeps things a bit warmer overall, meaning more rain and just a short window for any snow before the system moves out.

Right now, the most likely outcome looks like mainly rain, with a short period of wet snow possible after dark — especially in higher elevations. A coating to perhaps ½″ isn’t out of the question in a few spots, but most will just see a chilly rain ending late Saturday night.

Bottom line: a raw, damp Saturday with a touch of early winter feel by evening, but no major snow event expected at this time.

11/04/2025

🌨️ AI WEATHER MODEL BLEND UPDATE: WEEKEND SYSTEM (Saturday–Sunday) 🌨️
Iowa • Minnesota • Wisconsin

We’ve been tracking the potential for a weekend storm — and as new data comes in, the AI-blend forecast is now showing a cooler, more balanced outlook.

🧠 Model Trends

The GFS (first image)(American model) remains the most aggressive, showing a stronger, colder low with a focused band of 3–6" of snow across northern Iowa into southern Minnesota.

The EURO(second image) (European model) is less bullish, keeping most of the system as rain, especially Saturday, with only light snow possible farther north into Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The AI-blend model integrates both, along with pattern analogs and ensemble data — and currently supports some snow chances but low confidence in significant snows.

That matches the AI guidance — colder air lags behind the main energy, limiting snow for most of Iowa.

📊 AI-Blend Probability (as of Thursday):

Scenario Description Probability
🌧️ EURO-style (Warmer/Rainy) Mainly rain with light snow north 45%
❄️ GFS-style (Colder/Stronger) Moderate 3–6" snow band 25%
🧠 AI Hybrid (Middle Ground) Rain changing to wet snow late Sat–Sun; 1–3" north of Hwy 18 30%

🕒 Updated Timing:

Saturday afternoon: Rain develops from southwest to northeast.

Late Saturday night–Sunday: Colder air filters in; some areas north of Hwy 18 may flip to snow.

Sunday afternoon: Light snow or mixed precipitation lingers, tapering off by evening.

⚠️ Bottom Line:

Snow is possible, especially across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, but accumulation chances are currently low to moderate (20–35%).

The most likely outcome? A cold, damp weekend with rain mixing with or ending as light snow in spots — not a major storm.

A stronger cold push later next week could bring a more wintry pattern shift.

📍 Confidence Rating (AI + Human blend):
🟩 Moderate Confidence in Precipitation
🟨 Low Confidence in Significant Snow

Stay tuned for updates — we’ll re-run the AI composite when Friday’s upper-air data is ingested, which could tighten the model spread considerably.

11/03/2025

🌨️ WEEKEND STORM WATCH: Iowa – Minnesota – Wisconsin 🌨️

Mother Nature is wasting no time flipping the switch to winter.
Forecast models are now showing increasing confidence in a band of accumulating snow that could impact parts of Iowa, southern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin this weekend — bringing the region its first measurable snow of the season.

🌀 The Setup:
A developing low-pressure system (around 1000 mb) is expected to move northeast across the Midwest late Saturday into Sunday, pulling in colder air on its backside. That setup COULD create a swath of heavy, wet snow across the region.

📊 Latest Model Trends (as of this evening):

❄️ Snow totals of 3–6 inches appear possible from northern Iowa into southern Minnesota, with locally higher amounts (6–8"+) possible along the I-90 corridor into Wisconsin. *** THESE are based on current model data and not our forecasts***

🌡️ Temperatures will hover near freezing, meaning the type of precipitation and accumulation rates could vary greatly by location.

💨 Winds could gust 20–30 mph, causing reduced visibility and slick travel conditions, especially overnight.

⚠️ Confidence Levels:

Chance of measurable snow (1"+): 60%

Chance of 4"+ accumulation: 20–30%

Chance of travel impacts Saturday/Sunday: 50%

📍 Timeline:

Saturday evening: Rain begins in Iowa.

Overnight into early Sunday Changeover to snow for northern Iowa and southern Minnesota.

Sunday daytime: Snow pushes into Wisconsin before tapering off by evening.

🧤 What It Means:
This COULD be the first impactful winter system of the season — enough to coat roads, create slick spots, and give the Midwest that unmistakable “winter is here” feeling.

Keep an eye on forecast updates as we get closer; small track changes could shift the snow band north or south.

Stay tuned — we’ll be tracking it closely with updates and potential snow-map adjustments in the next 24–36 hours.

SHARE this post! We are going to give away weather radios on this post for every 100 shares. Ex, 200 shares, we will give away 2!

Official forecast determination will be made in next 24-48 hours!

11/03/2025

First image is from NWS Des Moines.

Second Image from NWS Sioux Falls

These are from the Forecast Discussion logs that they keep to help people and meteorologists see what their visions are. Sounds like NWS out of Des Moines doesn't want to talk about it quite yet ha :)

11/03/2025

🌨️ Weather Alert: Potential Early-Season Snowstorm for Northern Iowa 🌨️

Forecast models are hinting at a developing low-pressure system that could bring a mix of rain and snow to portions of northern Iowa later this week — possibly marking our first significant wintry event of the season.

🌀 The Setup:
A strengthening low-pressure system is expected to track across the Central Plains, drawing in colder air on its northern side. As the storm moves through, temperatures near the surface could drop quickly enough to change rain over to wet, accumulating snow across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota.

📆 Timing:

Saturday night into Sunday (Nov 8-9) looks to be the most likely window for wintry impacts.

Rain may begin first, transitioning to snow as colder air wraps around the backside of the system.

❄️ What to Watch:

Exact snow totals remain uncertain, but early model guidance suggests the potential for measurable accumulation.

Gusty northwest winds may also reduce visibility at times.

Travel conditions could turn slick late Thursday night into Friday morning.

⚠️ Confidence:
While it’s still several days out, confidence in some form of wintry precipitation is moderate (around 50–60%), with a 20–30% chance of accumulating snow that could impact travel in parts of the region.

📍 What’s Next:
Forecasts will continue to evolve as new data arrives. If the system holds its current track, this could be the first true taste of winter for much of North Iowa — right on schedule for early November.

Stay tuned here for updates as we track this developing system.

11/02/2025

NEW GFS RUN JUST IN — Snow creeping south! ( this is not a forecast, we continue to monitor a possibly storm on Nov 8.) Daytime high Temps are projected to be in 50s and 60s before they dip into 30s next weekend.

🌀 Pattern Overview

That 1004 mb low centered over the southern Plains (Oklahoma/Texas panhandle) looks to lift northeast toward Missouri and Iowa — a classic early-season trough.

The 540 thickness line (blue dashed) cuts straight across central Iowa into Wisconsin — that’s the rough rain/snow transition zone.

Light to moderate precipitation bands (green = rain, blue = snow, pink = mix) extend from Kansas into northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, with light snow into Wisconsin and the U.P.

---

❄️ What It Means

The colder air is deep enough north of Highway 20 in Iowa for some wet snow, especially overnight.

Accumulation signal right now: trace to 2″ possible north-central Iowa, 2–4″+ north into southern MN/WI corridor.

Surface temps still marginal (33–36 °F), so roads may stay mostly wet except during heavier bursts.

---

📈 Trend / Confidence

GFS consistency: strengthening low, modest cold push — a little more organized than yesterday’s 18z run.

ECMWF still keeps this a bit farther south and weaker, so confidence is moderate (~40 %) for meaningful snow in NE Iowa at this range (about 5–6 days out).

If the low tracks 50–100 mi farther north, that would boost snow chances significantly.

11/01/2025

No prediction yet but we continue to watch this as the chance of this happening increases.
Monitoring- a potential winter storm over parts of Minnesota and Iowa. This is NOT a forecast, or a prediction. We will issue a forecast if confidence increases.

🌨️ MIDWEST STORM WATCH – POSSIBLE FIRST WINTER BLAST NEXT WEEK! 🌨️

Mother Nature might be flipping the switch to winter early this year 👀

Forecast models are hinting at a potential storm system around November 8th that could bring the first measurable snow to parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin — especially across the northern tier.

💨 What’s brewing:
A strong clash of warm southern air and cold northern air looks to set up over the Upper Midwest late next week — the classic recipe for a November “witch storm.”
That means:
❄️ Rain changing to snow
💨 Gusty winds
🌡️ Rapid temperature drops
🧊 Slick roads possible overnight

📊 Current odds (as of this weekend):

30–40% chance of a storm system impacting the region

~ 30–35% chance of snow/mixed precipitation in northeast Iowa around that date.

~ 15–20% chance of travel-impacts (slippery roads, reduced visibility, wind/snow mix) in that same window.
70–90% chance of at least a noticeable change — colder temps, wind, and scattered precipitation

⚠️ Timing: Around Friday–Saturday, November 8–9 (still a few days out, so track updates closely).

📍 Areas most likely impacted: Northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and central Wisconsin — but even the southern half of the region could see strong winds and a cold snap.

💬 Question for you:
Are you ready for the first snow? Or are you still pretending it’s fall? 🍁😂
Drop a ❄️ if you want snow… or a ☀️ if you’re not ready yet!

🔥 Tag your friends who always forget to get their snowblower ready — and share this so nobody gets caught off guard!

10/29/2025

Big thanks to Adam Lobberecht, Isaiah Walsh, Princess Cece, Warren Cowart, Tina Reedy, Brian Burt, Joy Adams, David Roethler, Stacey Smith, Tammy Steffen, Kevin Lassen, Donny Woepse, Tyler Rewoldt, Jennifer Niedert-Peters, Kiera Krueger, Jason Dorothy, Teri Villwock, Jessica Rolfes, Bruce Carr

for all your support! Congrats for being top fans on a streak 🔥!

Cedar Valley Storm Chasing

11/07/2025

11/07/2025

11/06/2025

11/05/2025

11/05/2025

11/04/2025

11/03/2025

11/03/2025

11/03/2025

11/02/2025

11/01/2025

10/29/2025

Address

Website

Alerts

Shortcuts

Share

Category