10/15/2026
ECMWF vs. NAM 3KM vs. HRRR: WHICH WEATHER MODEL WILL GET TOMORROW'S RAINFALL RIGHT?
With rain expected across portions of the Midwest on Thursday, October 15, we're watching three major weather models closely. But which one should we trust?
π΅ ECMWF (European Model): Excellent at predicting larger weather systems, overall storm tracks, and widespread rainfall patterns. However, it can miss some of the smaller, localized pockets of heavy rain.
π NAM 3KM: A high-resolution model capable of identifying narrow bands of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. It can provide impressive detail, but sometimes exaggerates localized rainfall totals.
π΄ HRRR: One of our favorites for short-term forecasting! It updates hourly and becomes especially valuable as storms approach, helping us pinpoint where the heaviest rainfall may develop.
π OUR PICK?
For tomorrow's rainfall, we're leaning toward the HRRR for the placement of heavier rainfall bands, with the NAM 3KM providing additional guidance.
However, when it comes to predicting the most realistic rainfall totals across the entire region, we'll also be weighing the European model and the National Weather Service's blended forecasts.
β οΈ HERE'S THE CATCH: Higher resolution doesn't automatically mean higher accuracy. A model predicting 3 inches of rain isn't necessarily more accurate than one predicting 1 inch.
We'll be watching the latest model trends and radar observations closely as this system develops.
Next up, the storm for Friday and the cold winds and temperatures that arrive with it.