03/14/2026
Over the past few weeks, as gas prices keep climbing, Californians have been hearing a familiar debate unfold between the Governor’s Office, the White House, and the oil industry.
Governor Gavin Newsom has argued that the current spike is mainly caused by national and global forces, citing President Trump and Iran.
Yes, global events influence oil markets. When instability threatens shipping lanes or crude supply, prices rise everywhere.
But if global factors were the only cause, California gas prices would look pretty much the same across the country.
They don’t.
The national average for gasoline is $3.63 per gallon (March 13, 2026). In California, it’s $5.41 per gallon. That $1.78 difference isn’t caused by Iran, Washington, or international markets. It’s the result of policies made right here in California.
Over the past 8 years, California has intentionally reduced its in-state production and refining capacity. In the 1980s, the state had roughly 40 refineries in operation. Today, only seven remain, with two more having recently shut down.
However, demand has not gone down; it has gone up.
Today, 80 percent of the oil used in California is imported.
With the shutdown of the Bay Area refinery, the San Pablo pipeline that carried crude oil from Kern County to the Bay Area has not moved oil since December 1, 2025. Instead, more than 100 trucks now haul oil north every day, with another hundred returning south to reload. At the same time, oil tankers continue to arrive at California ports to fill the gap left by the shutdown of oil production.
All of that comes with a cost, and we pay for it at the pump, through higher food prices, increased housing costs, and on anything else that requires materials or goods to be shipped.
Full Disclosure: My firm works with members of the oil and energy industry to help explain these issues, including those whose jobs and families depend on the sector. But regardless of where someone stands, the math behind California’s fuel prices deserves a serious conversation.
Energy markets are complex. Policy narratives are often simple.
If Californians want lower, more stable energy prices, the discussion must go beyond slogans, memes, or fingerprinting and focus on the policies that shape the system we rely on every day.
I explore this issue in my latest article:
$5 to $6 Gas Is No Accident: California Drivers Are Paying for Political Decisions Energy experts and industry groups warned elected officials and regulators that they were dismantling the infrastructure that protects the state from global shocks By Hector Barajas, March 11, 2026 1:34 pm 11 Mar 2026...