Long Island Weather

Long Island Weather I created this page to discuss and enjoy anything weather related. I am always being asked what the weather will be and what my thoughts are.

This is a great forum for anyone to discuss WEATHER related topics. Let's keep this fun and enjoy!

12/13/2025

Numbers went up a bit... hmmm very bold predictions from NWS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
116 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

NYZ078>081-141315-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0011.251214T0300Z-251214T1800Z/
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast
Suffolk-
116 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 6
inches expected, locally 7 inches possible.

* WHERE...Northeast Suffolk, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk,
and Southwest Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on hazardous road conditions with snow covered
roads late this evening into Sunday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow, possibly mixed with rain at
onset, develops after 7pm, becoming a steady light to moderate
snow after 11pm. Snowfall rates of 1/2 to 1" per hr likely at
times overnight into Sunday morning. This will result in
visibilities reduced to 1/2 mile at times and snow covered roads.
Snow ending mid to late Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of
Transportation information services for the latest road conditions.

Be prepared for snow covered roads. Slow down and use caution while
driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken
on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and
slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

12/13/2025

Future radar for tonight's event.

12/13/2025

nice write-up from the NWS

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/DSSBuilder/LatestBriefing.pdf

Some of the forecast models overnight have increased the totals across the Island to more of a 2 - 4 and yes even 3 - 6 ...
12/13/2025

Some of the forecast models overnight have increased the totals across the Island to more of a 2 - 4 and yes even 3 - 6 range. I am still hesitant to go that far with this. A general 2 - 4 looks reasonable. This will be a very dynamic system and there is someone who may see 4+ out of this system if they get into a more rigorous and intense band of snow. We have to see how things setup. With situations like this, those just outside the strongest bands sometimes see the least amount. So a difference of 5 miles can be the difference of 1 - 3 or 3 - 6. Ok enough overcomplicating things.... a general 2 - 4" of snow overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. if you see more, congrats, if you see less, thanks again, better luck next time. :)

12/12/2025

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Hudson-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-New York
(Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast
Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern
Nassau-
139 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of
Transportation information services for the latest road conditions.

Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while
driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken
on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and
slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

Seems as though our first accumulating snowfall of the season will occur this weekend. Timeframe looks to be late mornin...
12/11/2025

Seems as though our first accumulating snowfall of the season will occur this weekend. Timeframe looks to be late morning into early afternoon. Overall amounts will be in the 1 - 3" range as suggested by the majority of the computer models (some showing a bit more). Still nothing set in stone, but the confidence is increasing.

Slight chance of light snow on Sunday... but in the near-term:Chance of a cold rain/showers early afternoon Wednesday in...
12/09/2025

Slight chance of light snow on Sunday... but in the near-term:

Chance of a cold rain/showers early afternoon Wednesday into Wednesday evening as a strong area of low pressure passes well to our N&W.
Behind the front, temps will switch around to the NW and issue in very cold air. Highs on Thursday will struggle to get into the 30s for the Island during the day and will fall into the upper teens and 20s overnight into Friday.

Light rain later this afternoon into tomorrow morning. Heaviest will be from between 9pm until around 10am. There may ev...
11/25/2025

Light rain later this afternoon into tomorrow morning. Heaviest will be from between 9pm until around 10am. There may even be a few rumbles of thunder and downpours between 6am and 10am. After that, scattered showers will be around the remainder of your day on Wednesday.

First snow of the season? (that last dusting didn't count!)GFS (image 1) - YesCanadian (image 2) - Nope... gonna rain IC...
11/25/2025

First snow of the season? (that last dusting didn't count!)

GFS (image 1) - Yes
Canadian (image 2) - Nope... gonna rain
ICON (image 3) - sunny cold and dry (miss wide right)

11/24/2025

Anyone who knows me, knows I don't usually get into long range forecasts. They are notoriously difficult to predict, and the general public usually doesn't pay much attention. However, with that being said I don't see any prolonged cold periods through the first week in December. In fact, temps look normal to slightly above normal for most of that period.

Nov 26th - 29th: Slightly below normal temps
Nov 30th - Dec 1st: Normal to slightly above normal temps
Dec 2nd - Dec 3rd: above normal temps (Euro AI model prolongs higher temps through 12/4)
Dec 4th onward: disagreements among the models. Some showing arctic air with temps in the teens & 20's, others showing temps in the usual 30s.

As far as precipitation, we are going to be into VERY active pattern in which the battle ground will be along the Appalachian mountain range.

1) Late Tuesday - Wednesday
2) Next week Monday - Thursday (dry period late Tuesday into Wednesday)

How about Thanksgiving??!?!

- Mostly dry with a chance of showers VERY early
- Winds pickup and temps drop from the low 50's overnight Wednesday into the low 30's Thursday evening.

Image 1 - Wednesday afternoon - Thursday Evening
* Shows the cold front passing through and temps dropping throughout the day.

Image 2 - Wednesday afternoon - Saturday NEXT WEEK
* Shows the rollercoaster of temps with the two warmups (Wednesday this week and Tuesday - Wednesday next week.

11/10/2025

If you haven't done so already... take those plants in!!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
123 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-177-179-102200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.FZ.A.0004.251111T0600Z-251111T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.W.0006.251111T0600Z-251111T1400Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern
New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten
Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern
Nassau-
123 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
..FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures between 30 and 32 degrees
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

First true arctic outbreak for the beginning of next week. Strong area of low pressure will develop along the Appalachia...
11/06/2025

First true arctic outbreak for the beginning of next week. Strong area of low pressure will develop along the Appalachians and move NE bringing with it, strong NW winds. Monday night freezing temps will hit most areas along the coast and temps in the teens and 20s for the western zones. On Tuesday, temps will struggle to get out of the low to mid 40s for most areas with 20s and 30s inland.

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