Long Island Weather

Long Island Weather I created this page to discuss and enjoy anything weather related. I am always being asked what the weather will be and what my thoughts are.

This is a great forum for anyone to discuss WEATHER related topics. Let's keep this fun and enjoy!

09/24/2025

TORNADO RISK THURSDAY 🌪️ the entire area in green does run the risk for a tornado tomorrow. Chance is very low, but is quite clear on model data.

⏱️ TIMING Storms with rotation and damaging winds 4-8 pm.

Any guesses?
09/24/2025

Any guesses?

09/22/2025

Active pattern setting up in the tropics for the next week or so. Too many moving parts to discuss outcomes. Will keep an eye out and see if there is any consistency among the computer models.

2 situations to keep an eye on for tomorrow. 1st - a strong line of storms (some severe) will be approaching the area Sa...
09/05/2025

2 situations to keep an eye on for tomorrow.

1st - a strong line of storms (some severe) will be approaching the area Saturday morning. Heavy rain, strong winds will be associated with them. This line is expected to weaken significantly as it reaches the coast. Those along the immediate shore (central and eastern Suffolk) most likely will not be impacted with the strongest of the storms...
** 1st image **

2nd - HOWEVER, later in the day tomorrow, we are watching a vigorous area of low pressure passing to our SE. This has the potential to impact our eastern sections. Most likely scenario will be scattered showers or a brief downpour as the vast majority of activity will remain offshore.
** 2nd image **

Experienced or not... stay out of the water!Coastal Hazard MessageNational Weather Service New York NY455 AM EDT Thu Aug...
08/21/2025

Experienced or not... stay out of the water!

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
455 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

NYZ080-179-212200-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.W.0001.250821T2100Z-250822T0500Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250823T0000Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.Y.0007.250822T0900Z-250822T1700Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.Y.0008.250822T2200Z-250823T0600Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.RP.S.0012.000000T0000Z-250823T0000Z/
Southwest Suffolk-Southern Nassau-
455 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025
..HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY.....HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.....COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY.....COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EDT
FRIDAY.....COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO
2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Rip Current Risk, life-threatening rip
currents. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves
building to 12 to 16 ft through tonight, subsiding to and 8 to
12 feet on Friday afternoon. For the Coastal Flood Warning, 2
to 2 1/2 feet of inundation above ground level expected in
vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline. For the
first and second Coastal Flood Advisories, 1 to 2 ft of
inundation above ground level likely.

* WHERE...Southwest Suffolk and Southern Nassau Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Friday. For
the High Rip Current Risk, through Friday evening. For the
Coastal Flood Warning, from 5 PM today to 1 AM EDT Friday. For
the first Coastal Flood Advisory, from 5 AM to 1 PM EDT
Friday. For the second Coastal Flood Advisory, from 6 PM
Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Widespread moderate flooding of
vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline with this
evening`s high tide. Expect 2 to 2 1/2 ft of inundation above
ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. This will result
in numerous road closures and cause widespread flooding of low
lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns and
homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront. Vehicles
parked in vulnerable areas near the waterfront will likely
become flooded.

* SWIMMING IMPACTS...Life-threatening swimming and surfing
conditions and localized beach erosion. Life-threatening rip
currents are likely for all people entering the surf zone.
Anyone visiting the beaches should stay out of the surf. Rip
currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into
deeper water.

* SHORELINE IMPACTS...The threat for dune erosion and beach
flooding will increase with successive high tides thru Fri
morning. Widespread areas of dune erosion with localized
overwashes are expected during the Thu evening and Fri morning
high tides.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

If you enter the surf zone, always have a flotation device with
you and swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax
and float, and do not swim against the current. If able, swim in
a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face
the shore and yell or wave for help.

08/19/2025

Headed to the beach over the next few days.... be careful!!!

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
326 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

NYZ080-081-179-201930-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.250820T1000Z-250823T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.RP.S.0012.000000T0000Z-250823T0000Z/
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Nassau-
326 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025
..HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.....HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents.
For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 7 to 11 feet
expected in the surf zone Wednesday, 12 to 16 feet Thursday, and
6 to 10 feet Friday.

* WHERE...Southwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk and Southern
Nassau Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Rip Current Risk, through Friday evening.
For the High Surf Advisory, from 6 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT
Friday.

* SWIMMING IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions
and localized beach erosion. Life-threatening rip currents are
likely for all people entering the surf zone. Anyone visiting
the beaches should stay out of the surf. Rip currents can sweep
even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

* SHORELINE IMPACTS...The threat for beach flooding, beach erosion
and escarpment and areas of dune erosion will increase with
successive high tides Tue eve thru Fri morning. Widespread areas
of dune erosion with localized overwashes are expected during
the Thu evening and Fri morning high tides.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

08/13/2025

Heavy rain working it ways west to east across the island this evening.

Some active weather around the region for later this afternoon. Heavy downpours, and small hail are a possibility.
07/25/2025

Some active weather around the region for later this afternoon. Heavy downpours, and small hail are a possibility.

Strong storm headed toward North Sea / Sag Harbor area. If you're outside prepare for some gusty winds and torrential do...
07/08/2025

Strong storm headed toward North Sea / Sag Harbor area. If you're outside prepare for some gusty winds and torrential downpours

Mesoscale Discussion 1603 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...porti...
07/08/2025

Mesoscale Discussion 1603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 081634Z - 081830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the Blue Ridge Mountains is
expected in the next 1-2 hours. The threat for strong to severe
winds will increase through the afternoon hours as storms spread
east across the Mid-Atlantic region. Watch issuance is likely to
address this concern.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows building cumulus
within the central to southern Appalachians as temperatures continue
to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s within a very moist air mass
(dewpoints and PWAT values across the region are near or above the
90th percentile for mid-July). As temperatures continue to warm into
the low to mid 90s over the next few hours, lingering inhibition
will erode and support increasing probability for thunderstorm
development within the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge Mountains
and/or along a weak surface pressure trough in the lee of the
terrain. Additional heating will also support SBCAPE values
increasing to around 2000-3000 J/kg as well as steepening
near-surface lapse rates. This thermodynamic environment will
promote strong water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging/severe
downburst winds. Modest flow aloft will generally limit deep-layer
shear magnitudes and the potential for well-organized convection,
but a few long-lived clusters or convective bands seem plausible,
especially considering the weak capping that should promote
scattered thunderstorm development. The wind threat should peak by
late afternoon when thermodynamic profiles will be optimized and as
convection reaches maturity along the I-95 corridor.

..Moore/Thompson.. 07/08/2025

07/03/2025

RIGHT ON CUE!

****************************************************

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC001-005-007-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-039-047-059-061-071-
077-079-081-083-085-087-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-119-
123-040200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0484.250703T1730Z-250704T0200Z/

NY NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBANY BRONX BROOME
CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO
COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE
DUTCHESS GREENE KINGS
NASSAU NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)ORANGE
OTSEGO PUTNAM QUEENS
RENSSELAER RICHMOND ROCKLAND
SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA
STEUBEN SUFFOLK SULLIVAN
TIOGA TOMPKINS ULSTER
WESTCHESTER YATES
$$

Beautiful day outside right now, but please be aware there is a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon....
07/03/2025

Beautiful day outside right now, but please be aware there is a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Although the strongest of them will remain away from the coast, everyone is at risk of heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail. If you have beach plans or anything outdoors later on today, please keep an eye on the weather as these storms will pop up quickly.

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