Plateau Weather

12/24/2025

Wednesday morning update: Looks like we'll dodge the worst of the wind! The system isn't taking the most dangerous track, and it's weaker than it could have been. However, that doesn't mean we're completely out of the woods yet...it'll still be a windy afternoon, but it's shaping up to be "just another" fall/winter storm.

One thing that will be different is the sudden increase in strong gusts, sometime between noon and 2pm. Winds will be relatively calm, then ramp up rather quickly. I think the Plateau will see peak gusts in the 30 mph range, with a few that might get into the low-40s. Nothing too crazy, but enough to get your attention!

Back later with another update!

12/24/2025

Tuesday evening update: Confidence is increasing in a decent windstorm tomorrow...but a "major" windstorm is becoming less likely.

The National Weather Service has issued two different products for much of western Washington: a High Wind Warning for places like Seattle, Bellevue, Redmond, and downtown Issaquah; and a Wind Advisory for the foothills, including Sammamish, Carnation, Fall City, Snoqualmie, and North Bend.

- High Wind Warning: in effect from 10am to 7pm - calling for winds from the south at 20 to 30 mph, with gusts 50 to 60 mph.
- Wind Advisory: in effect from 4am to 7pm, highlighting the difference in winds from the east during the morning hours, and from the south after noon - morning east winds 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph; afternoon south winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph.

For around the Plateau specifically, those numbers in the Wind Advisory are definitely plausible. All-in-all, this seems to be shaping up to be a decent region-wide windstorm. But again, still room for it to either over-perform or under-perform...though as the storm continues to develop off the California coast and makes its way north, we'll be able to do some "nowcasting" to hopefully dial it in a tad more.

As for timing: winds from the east pick up early morning, but honestly don't look too out-of-the-ordinary once they make it towards us - it'll be windier in Snoqualmie and North Bend though. A bit after noon, the winds from the south scoot into the area - a rather sudden shift, and increase in speed. The window for peak gusts lasts into the mid-afternoon, before tapering off by dinner-time.

Back in the morning with more updates!

12/24/2025

Tuesday afternoon update: Under 24 hours to go until this potential windstorm. Before we get into potential impacts, let's talk about the timing, since there is a bit more confidence in that aspect!

Speaking very generically here...winds should start off from the east during the morning hours. These don't look very impactful, just the appetizer for what could come later. By midday, they'll swing around to come from the south. The window for peak winds looks to be the early/mid-afternoon hours, tapering off by the evening...and it's all over by bedtime.

This is going to be one of those "nowcasting" situations - one positive (if you can call it that) is that we'll be able to see it coming. The storm will impact northern California and Oregon before it makes it up to Washington, so we'll be able to make last-minute adjustments and preparations late tonight / early tomorrow morning as we see what's happening. Speaking of, it's already beginning to develop off the coast of California, so we can watch it on satellite view to see how it's *actually* developing, rather than just looking at what the computer models think is going to happen.

Now...about potential impacts. Again, the forecast guidance still hasn't narrowed in on a consistent track or intensity yet - but now that the storm is beginning to develop, the computer models should (finally) be able to nail down some details. Rather than talking about "boom" or "bust" scenarios, let's swap analogies to the "ceiling" and the "floor": with yesterday's forecasts, the "ceiling" was very strong winds, while the "floor" was basically a light breeze. As of this afternoon, the "ceiling" isn't quite as crazy-strong, but the floor is higher too. Worst-case scenario (which, to be clear, I don't think is very likely) calls for ~60 mph wind gusts around the Puget Sound area. Best-case scenario, 20-30 mph wind gusts. Still plenty of time for things to change up or down...but I'm currently leaning towards peak gusts around the Plateau in the 30-40 mph range. That's more in-line with a "regular windstorm" for the area, but still nothing to discount either!

One more disclaimer: even though there's not a lot of time left, there are still plenty of ways for this to go one way or another...still, I think it's best to prepare for potential impacts, while hoping for just another breezy day.

More updates to come tonight!

12/23/2025

This is my favorite analogy to describe the difference between a “watch” and a “warning” 🤣 Another update coming this afternoon!

Many of you have asked what the difference between a weather related WATCH and a WARNING is. The graphic below is a great and humorous way to remember the difference.

Let's use our Christmas Eve High Wind Watch as an example, in taco version (I hope this makes sense and is easy to understand!):

❗️WATCH: A Watch means that it is possible that we will be able to make tacos (high wind). We have the recipe (forecast models) showing the ingredients for tacos (high wind), but they are not yet occurring or there is still disagreement in the models overall.
‼️WARNING: A Warning means that we have all the ingredients in place and are making tacos right now (high winds are occurring, or will be occurring very soon in your area).

As of Tuesday midday, we still have A High Wind WATCH in place for tomorrow, Christmas Eve. Just to summarize the above, this means that we have the ingredients for high winds showing in the forecast models, but there is still too much uncertainty on strength and storm track for the National Weather Service Seattle office to be able to, with certainty, issue a High Wind WARNING.

Graphic Credit to: Committee on Science Space and Technology

12/23/2025

Tuesday morning update: We'd hoped for more clarification overnight and early this morning on the potential for a windstorm tomorrow...but we didn't get much. Some of the guidance still suggests a strong windstorm for much of the region, while others are still holding out that we won't get much wind at all. But with ~24 hours left, I think it's prudent to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. This is one of those situations where I hope I'm wrong!

I've attached a graphic from the US National Weather Service Seattle Washington that highlights the amount of uncertainty there still is...Scott Sistek Meteorologist has a great in-depth look at why that is, which I'll link to in the comments - but the gist is, there's basically two potential scenarios. Let's take a look at both of them.

Worst-case scenario: the storm races north up the West Coast today and tomorrow, and strengthens on its way. This would bring fairly strong winds from northern California, through the Willamette Valley, and up into the Puget Sound, with peak wind gusts from the south around 60mph across the Puget Sound. Winds would increase quite suddenly mid- to late-morning tomorrow (Wednesday), before tapering off by the evening - a quick-hitter, and in the daylight, if that's any comfort! The NWS Seattle has issued a High Wind Watch for most of the Puget Sound region - but *not* including the Plateau at this point - to highlight this possibility. Better safe than sorry, in my book! (A "Watch" basically means the ingredients are in place for something to happen, but it's not currently happening.)

Best-case scenario: the storm doesn't get too strong, and/or it moves inland somewhere in Oregon, making it even weaker. In this scenario, the worst we'd get is some breezy winds mid-day tomorrow, but nothing to worry about.

As for my un-scientific opinion (aka "my gut feeling")...I think we'll get something in the middle. I don't think this will turn out to be a memorable storm, like some of the guidance indicates - but I also don't think it's going to turn out to be nothing. Like I mentioned earlier, at this point, I'm personally getting prepped for the possibility of a decent windstorm...and if that turns out to jinx it, I'm okay with that!

More updates to follow!

12/23/2025

Monday late-night update: Still a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts for the potential windstorm on Wednesday…some are calling for strong winds all the way from Northern California up to British Columbia - but others still call for barely a light breeze. At this point, I’m kinda leaning towards a windy day on Wednesday (during the day at least!), but there’s still plenty of ways for this storm to “bust”. Hopefully we’ll have more clarity tomorrow morning!

12/22/2025

'Tis the three days before Christmas, let's look at the forecast: two storms are a-brewing, which might leave some aghast.

Rhymes and parodies aside, we do have two storms on tap for this week...one this afternoon/evening, and one during the day Wednesday (Christmas Eve) - both include rain and wind. There's still some uncertainty around Wednesday's storm, but it might end up being the stronger one of the two.

Let's look at today's system first, since we know more about it. Cooler start to the day, and scattered showers this morning and afternoon. Rain will pick up for a few hours this evening, turning showery again overnight. Winds will get gusty along with the steadier rain, coming from the south again...but not expecting anything crazy, just another "normal early winter" storm.

Calmer day Tuesday - can't rule out a few stray showers, but otherwise dry and cool, with afternoon highs only in the mid- to upper-40s.

Wednesday, things could get interesting. I'll preface this by saying there is still a good bit of uncertainty with what impacts we'll see, and hopefully we'll get some clarity by this evening or early tomorrow. But in the interest of "prepare for the worst, hope for the best"...a system looks to develop off the coast of California late Tuesday night, and will scoot north along the west coast towards Washington and British Columbia during the day Wednesday. Depending on how strong it gets, and how close it is to the coast, we could be in for a windy day across the region. Best-case scenario, it's either pretty weak or stays away from the Washington coast, meaning it's slightly breezy at most around the area...worst-case, it's strong *and* just off the coast, meaning it could be pretty windy. For now, it's probably best to assume it'll be on the windier side.

Good news is, Thursday and Friday look much calmer: showers and cooler temps! Bad news is, chances are very slim for a white Christmas around the Plateau...but the mountains and passes will be!

Back later with more updates!

12/20/2025

Compared to the last couple weeks, this weekend should be relatively calm! Several weather systems will move through the area over the next week, though they should be on the "normal" side of late-fall/early-winter storms.

Speaking of winter...tomorrow is the winter solstice - the shortest day of the year, at just under 8.5 hours of sunlight! Sunset actually has already started getting later (by two minutes) over the past week, but sunrise will continue to get a few minutes later over the next couple weeks.

Plentiful showers through the weekend, though some might be on the heavier side. As we've already seen this morning, some sunbreaks are possible too! It'll be cooler over the weekend too, with afternoon highs only in the mid- to upper-40s...overnight lows will drop to the upper-30s or low-40s. Breezy winds continue throughout the weekend and into next week...though after this past week, it's barely worth mentioning.

The next somewhat-stronger system moves in on Monday to kick off the holiday week, with more rain and gusty winds. This looks like a fairly typical storm for this time of year, but we'll continue to keep an eye on it!

12/19/2025

Thursday afternoon update: We're in the window for peak gusts. The Wind Advisory still expires at 7pm, though the NWS has lowered the numbers a tad - expecting winds from the south at 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph. I'm seeing peak gusts in the mid-20 mph range around the Eastside...might get a tad stronger, but otherwise this should be the peak of what we see. Winds will tail off throughout the evening, but we do remain breezy into tomorrow.

12/18/2025

Thursday morning update: No rest for the weary apparently...along with the rain today, the chances for gusty winds have increased again.

The National Weather Service has issued yet another Wind Advisory for a good chunk of the Puget Sound region, from noon today to 7pm tonight - calling for winds from the south at 20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph. Just like Tuesday night, I don't think the Plateau will get winds *that* high, but it's not out of the question - it's more likely we'll see gusts up to the low- to mid-30s. Still quite blustery! (If you're heading to Seattle for the Seahawks game this evening, you might get gusts on the stronger side there...as if the game wasn't exciting enough on its own!) The window for peak gusts looks to be in the mid- to late-afternoon hours, calming down by late-evening.

Rain totals don't look too impressive (by recent standards, at least) through early tomorrow morning - "only" around a half-inch.

Back later with more updates!

12/17/2025

Wednesday midday update: A much calmer, and cooler, day! While the Plateau was spared the worst of the overnight winds, we did get over an inch of rain since yesterday afternoon.

We're in between systems again - I even see some pockets of blue sky out the window! Scattered showers are possible throughout the afternoon. Mid-40s feels pretty chilly, even though it's actually closer to "normal" for this time of year...especially after 12 days of highs in the 50s! Steadier rain picks up late this evening through tomorrow - but the bulk of the precip stays well to our south, focused on southern Washington / northern Oregon.

12/17/2025

Tuesday night update: The rain sure has picked up! While it's been breezy, we're still a few hours away from the peak winds... good news is that I don't think the Plateau will get the worst of it this time around.

We are still under the Wind Advisory from the NWS until 6am tomorrow morning - in general, they're still calling for winds from the southwest at 20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 40-45 mph. I'm thinking we'll stay under those numbers - but they're still within the realm of possibility.

(For reference, Snohomish County and Whidbey Island look like they'll get the brunt of the winds from the west, screaming down the Strait of Juan de Fuca...they're under a High Wind Warning as a result. Washington Weather Chasers and Whidbey Island Weather Page are good resources to follow up there.)

As the front crosses through the area around midnight, temperatures will drop behind it too - tomorrow could be one of those rare days where our "daily high" temp occurs at 12 midnight or 1am! We'll stay in the low- to mid-50s for the next few hours (until just past midnight), then drop down to the low- to mid-40s for the rest of the day. Depending on how much wind we end up getting, wind chills (the "feels like" temp) could be down in the 30s!