San Diego Business Journal

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“Through The Looking Glass”

2020 is going to be a year to remember…or forget. We know for sure it’s going to be painful. A global pandemic has disrupted life as we’ve known it, and we were ALREADY facing numerous global crises before the deadly microbe known as ‘Corona Virus’ came along. Climate change, a new and dangerous nationalism, food shortages, and terrorism were all throwing sparks in a dehydrated forest. The economic earthquake that has shaken markets to their foundations has come without a tsunami warning so far, despite the tide receding before our eyes. The coming period of global change will be nothing short of spectacular, and under the degraded and incompetent leadership of Trump and others, we can rightly expect it to be disastrous…at first. How bad it gets, will depend on how quickly we wake up, or go completely broke.

Right now global equity markets seem to have stabilized after a gut-wrenching plummet. This is the result of central banks promising liquidity with trillions of dollars printed to protect lenders. It’s counterproductive printing money to protect bonds because it causes those bonds to lose value; one dollar owed today becomes worth much less when its repaid tomorrow. The façade of temporarily buoyed financial markets is betrayed by unimaginable numbers of job losses. 20 million unemployment claims filed in the U.S. in one month, and this pandemic promises to last for many months around the globe. Those jobs and that foundation are vanishing as quickly as the trillions of dollars lost in the initial market crash, yet we’ve seen almost nothing being done to address it. It’s been reported that one third of renters in the U.S. have stopped paying rent. Millions have lost health insurance. Oil revenues have plummeted more than in any other sector promising to wipe out domestic production. State unemployment and food assistance programs are overwhelmed. Massive food lines are already forming. Farmers are being paid tax dollars to destroy crops while claiming that there’s no demand. Travel, lodging, hospitality, and dining sectors have completely shut down and are likely to remain so. Industry bailouts have become a function of political maneuvering in D.C. Conspiracy theories are rampant. Donald Trump has verbally claimed his ‘authority is total’ as President, and his party has already betrayed every one of its supposed values to place him above the law…except for one: an open and blatant contempt for the poor. People call it “fear-mongering!” to say that the Dow is going to finish its current plummet below the 10,000 mark. I’ll consider it a sad success if it stops before it gets to 5,000.

Many things are being proposed and debated as a path forward towards a new normalcy: A system for safely reopening cities and regions is best devised from the bottom up, supported from the top down, and is likely to include local travel restrictions, a massive testing and tracing infrastructure, and increased treatment capacity. Additionally, the existing proposals are set against a backdrop of real civil liberties concerns, tens of millions without the ability to pay for health care in a for-profit system, a patchwork of legalities, and a very, very stupid idea gaining popularity here: Herd Immunity.

Nothing being proposed in congress right now rises to the scale of what is needed to address all of these problems, Republican Governors and The President have even refused simple measures like expanding Medicaid and requiring private providers to report COVID test results. Instead, President Trump has used press briefings to promote a dangerous anti-malarial drug-Hydroxychloroquine-as a viable treatment for COVID-19. It is not approved by the FDA for such use, and warnings from medical scientists that it can have deadly side-effects were ignored. People have already died from taking it without proper medical prescription since. Trump’s family owns a stake in the producer of it. That’s one small example of his deadly dereliction, corruption, and unaccountability. The big example is that Trump initially called this virus a ‘hoax’, continued to dismiss it as ‘nothing’, and now has fired the independent auditor of the multi-trillion dollar stimulus package passed to deal with this crisis. His buddies think they’re about to get cut in on the deal of a lifetime. I think we are about to see one of the biggest and most disastrous thefts of tax money in history. Senators with advanced knowledge of this pandemic sold their stocks early. Meanwhile, Trump and his allies are complaining about people trying to get a one-time $1,200 check, and are wringing their hands over people being incentivized to not go to work…as if people are not being laid off, furloughed, and outright terminated by the millions. We need financial support for people on the ground until our governments can figure out how to manage this pandemic, and we need it today. Even that basic assistance is not forthcoming.

Making things less certain and more dangerous is the debate taking shape over our elections. Not the one of ‘red vs blue’ ideas, but the debate over how to ensure that everyone can safely vote. Universal voting by mail is the way to do this properly. It’s simple. Mail everyone a ballot the same way we mail everyone a census packet. Waive the postage, require a dated postmark, and check the ballots received against voting rolls. It creates a paper trail that can be verified against fraud, it makes it safe and easy for everyone to vote, and will likely increase participation in the election, which is a good thing. It shouldn’t be a debate at all, but because it flies in the face of systemic Republican efforts to restrict voting access, purge voting rolls, gerrymander districts, and allow foreign interference in our elections, even the United States Postal Service is now under assault as Trump threatens to veto any new Stimulus Package that provides relief for our post offices. Trump said, voting by mail, “…doesn’t work out well for Republicans.” Well, it works just fine for U.S. service members, and in fact, himself. He votes by mail.

The relentless attack on the integrity of our electoral process represents the greatest threat to our national security since the Cuban Missle Crisis, and the greatest threat to our constitution since the Civil War. Not terrorism, not economic disruptions, not Trumps incompetence and avarice, and not even this pandemic are as dangerous to our nation as the possible failure of constitutional electoral processes. If our leaders fail to recognize this, it won’t matter if they miraculously do everything else right, and there is a quickly closing window of opportunity to act. Venezuela is a good modern example of how a disrupted electoral process becomes declared as illegitimate and spills into the streets. It can happen here, in fact, it seems likely at this point. Just yesterday, Trump brazenly declared in a press conference that he has ‘total authority’ as President. I’m not the only person that expects him to try to declare martial law at some point, especially as millions of armed people begin to become homeless, lose internet access, and starve.

It’s sobering to take a step back, take all of this in, and realize that everything has been turned upside down by one microbe from a bats hairy ass half way around the world. Kind of awe-inspiring in a way, like nature’s gonna have her way regardless. Peering through the looking glass we can know a few things for sure at this point: 1) The jobs crisis has only begun and is going to deepen severely taking everything else in the economy down with it. 2) We have a deranged president who is functionally unable to begin to solve these problems as they intensify in the coming months. 3) Our democracy itself is at stake this year, and the outlook is grim at best. 4) The only two things that are preventing us from moving forward are insatiable greed and widespread fear as people seek results “less fundamental and astounding”.

With cultural regression stampeding in, hopefully America figures it out before the ancient rituals of human sacrifice and cannibalism have a chance to make a comeback. That may sound extreme, but authoritarian leaders have yielded up far worse from populations under their destructive influence in the past. For sure, we can expect our national suffering to deepen in the months ahead as reactionary measures and misinformation keep lurching us from one policy failure to the next.

The biggest irony in all of this?

Medicare For All, A Green New Deal, $15.00 minimum wage, Tuition-free college, universal free child care, the complete forgiveness of all student loan debt, greatly expanding Social Security benefits, the end of private prisons, a path to citizenship, universal voting, Wall Street Reform, the break up of the monopolies, and campaign finance reform are all starting to sound a lot more like a future we can all believe in. Taken together, these reforms(or comparable equivalents) would unite us, lay a solid foundation for new growth, and even save the billionaires. The man championing these reforms was forced out of contention for the presidency last week.

At this point, it’s not a question of ‘IF’ our leaders realize it, it’s only a question of ‘WHEN’. Until they do, we can expect the downward spiral to continue.

-Matt Fleming