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https://waverider.ai/, https://podcast.waverider.ai/

Wave Rider, San Francisco, CA (2025)

12/20/2025

12/22 Cautiously Bullish. 510 Buying | 200 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bullish. Primary Indicator is Neutral. 20% Weekly is Neutral.
Tech-led rally extends into year-end with solid participation; major indices hold above key moving averages amid broad sector gains.
Information Technology (+2.0%) and Health Care (+0.7%) sectors show strength, while Utilities and Consumer Staples lag; volatility (VXX) declines, signaling reduced fear.
Upcoming Catalyst: $69B 2-year Treasury auction Monday; Tuesday’s Q3 GDP and durable goods data will be key for market direction.
Key Takeaway:
Focus on tech and biotech momentum names that are holding key support levels and showing relative strength, while avoiding defensive sectors and precious metals miners which are under pressure. Use tight stops below recent supports and consider scaling into strength after shallow pullbacks. Monitor Treasury auctions and GDP data as potential volatility triggers early in the week.

Watchlist
[Continuation]: CIEN (S1: 229, S2: 227, S3: 226, R1: 231.5, R2: 233, R3: 235.5)
[Anticipation]: CASY (S1: 555.5, S2: 554.5, S3: 553.5, R1: 557.5, R2: 560, R3: 563)

12/17/2025

12/18 Bearish. 150 Buying | 560 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bearish. Primary Indicator is Bearish. 20% Weekly is Bearish.
Tech and mega-caps led sharp declines, dragging major indexes lower as the S&P 500 lost its 50-day moving average. Information Technology (-2.2%) and Communication Services (-1.9%) sectors faced heavy selling amid AI infrastructure funding concerns. Energy (+2.2%) bucked the trend with a modest rebound. Volatility remains moderate with VXX stable near 30. Key economic data due Thursday includes November CPI, Core CPI, and weekly jobless claims, which could influence near-term market direction.

Sector Overview:
Financials and insurance showed selective late-day strength in high-quality names (CB, SPGI, RGA), while restaurants and certain materials lagged. Software/IT services (ADBE) and lodging (HLT) demonstrated accumulation into the close. Industrials and consumer discretionary were mixed with some weakness in small-cap retail and auto. Energy’s bounce was driven by geopolitical developments around Venezuelan oil sanctions.

Upcoming Catalyst:
Thursday’s November CPI and Core CPI releases at 8:30 ET, weekly Initial Claims, and December Philadelphia Fed survey will be key for gauging inflation and labor market momentum.

Key Takeaway:
Traders should remain cautious amid broad market weakness and fading tech leadership. Focus on high-quality financials and selective software/lodging names showing late-session accumulation for potential swing entries. Avoid heavy exposure to pressured AI-related tech and volatile consumer discretionary. Use support levels and volume confirmation before committing, given the bearish momentum and upcoming CPI data risk.

Watchlist
[Continuation]: ADBE (S1: 354.0, S2: 353.5, S3: 352.5, R1: 355.0, R2: 357.0, R3: 360.0)
[Anticipation]: TRV (S1: 289.0, S2: 288.0, S3: 287.5, R1: 290.5, R2: 292.0, R3: 294.0)

12/16/2025

12/17 Bearish. 170 Buying | 250 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bearish. Primary Indicator is Bullish - Caution. 20% Weekly is Bearish.

The market showed broad weakness with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closing lower, while the Nasdaq managed a late rebound led by tech mega-caps. Energy and health care sectors underperformed notably, pressured by falling oil prices and disappointing Pfizer guidance. Defensive sectors like health care and utilities saw rotation as volatility remained subdued. Employment data surprised to the upside but did not shift Fed easing expectations.

Tech and mega-cap stocks provided late-session support, highlighting ongoing rotation and an uncertain market direction ahead of Wednesday’s housing starts and building permits data. Energy weakness on crude’s decline and health care selling after ACA subsidy news weighed on broader indices.

Key upcoming catalysts include Wednesday’s housing data and ongoing earnings reports from major names like ABM and GIS.

Key Takeaway:
Traders should remain cautious amid bearish breadth and mixed signals from momentum indicators. Focus on tech and select industrials showing late strength for potential short-term continuation plays. Avoid energy and health care sectors facing fundamental headwinds. Use tight stops given the current volatility and watch for follow-through in Nasdaq leaders while managing risk around key support levels.

**Watchlist**
[Continuation]: MDB (S1: 420, S2: 419.5, S3: 416.5, R1: 423, R2: 425, R3: 428)
[Anticipation]: UNH (S1: 333, S2: 332.5, S3: 331, R1: 335, R2: 337, R3: 340)

12/12/2025

12/15 Bearish. 170 Buying | 515 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bearish. Primary Indicator is Bullish - Caution. 20% Weekly is Bullish - Caution.
The market pulled back sharply as AI-related tech stocks, particularly mega-cap chipmakers like Broadcom and NVIDIA, faced profit-taking after strong earnings but sky-high expectations. Defensive sectors and consumer staples showed relative strength amid rotation, while cyclicals and small/mid caps stumbled.
Technology and communication services led sector declines with notable volatility, while health care and financials held firm. VXX volatility eased slightly after a spike, signaling a moderation in immediate risk-off sentiment.
Investors will focus on Tuesday’s November jobs report and Thursday’s CPI data for clues on Fed policy and market direction amid ongoing sector rotation.

Key Takeaway:
Traders should avoid chasing extended AI and mega-cap tech names given stretched valuations and recent sharp reversals. Focus on high-quality defensive sectors like health care and financials, and watch for follow-through in insurance and defense stocks showing relative strength. Use tight stops and stagger entries on pullbacks near key support levels to manage risk in this cautious, bearish environment.

Watchlist
[Continuation]: VERA (S1: 49.5, S2: 49.25, S3: 49.0, R1: 50.0, R2: 50.5, R3: 51.5)
[Continuation]: GLTO (S1: 31.0, S2: 30.5, S3: 30.0, R1: 32.0, R2: 33.0, R3: 34.0)
[Anticipation]: KNSL (S1: 387.5, S2: 386.5, S3: 385.5, R1: 389.5, R2: 390.0, R3: 396.0)
[Anticipation]: NOC (S1: 568.5, S2: 567.5, S3: 566.5, R1: 569.5, R2: 571.5, R3: 575.5)

12/11/2025

12/12 Bullish. 300 Buying | 210 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bullish. Primary Indicator is Bullish. 20% Weekly is Neutral.
The market showed rotation into cyclicals and defensives, lifting the Dow to a record high despite tech weakness weighing on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Rate-cut optimism and softer Fed tone continue to fuel small- and mid-cap strength.
Precious metals miners faded late, signaling near-term consolidation, while semiconductors and nuclear/uranium sectors showed strong momentum. Software stocks remain soft, with Oracle and Adobe under pressure. Volatility (VXX) declined, supporting a risk-on environment.
Broadcom’s upcoming earnings and Fed-related economic data remain key catalysts to watch.
Key Takeaway:
Focus on cyclical and defensive sectors showing momentum, especially semiconductors and energy transition plays. Avoid heavy exposure to large-cap software and precious metals miners until they stabilize. Use support levels on strong momentum names for entries and respect stops amid mixed sector rotation and moderate volatility.

Watchlist
[Continuation]: AMD (S1: 220, S2: 219.5, S3: 219, R1: 221.5, R2: 222.5, R3: 224)
[Anticipation]: CVNA (S1: 471, S2: 470.5, S3: 466.5, R1: 473.5, R2: 475, R3: 480)

12/10/2025

12/11 Very Bullish. 500 Buying | 200 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bullish. Primary Indicator is Bullish. 20% Weekly is Neutral.

The market rallied strongly following the FOMC’s 25 bps rate cut and dovish outlook, lifting major indices close to all-time highs and sparking small-cap record levels. Optimistic GDP growth revisions and Fed Treasury bill purchases underpin sustained risk appetite.

Industrials led with 1.8% gains fueled by GE Vernova’s breakout on robust AI-driven power demand and capital returns, while semiconductors and semiconductor equipment showed strong momentum and volume expansion. Consumer discretionary and financials also posted solid advances, despite some profit-taking in tech mega-caps. VXX declined, confirming subdued volatility and a risk-on environment.

Watch for Thursday’s Weekly Initial Claims and September Wholesale Inventories to confirm economic momentum.

Key Takeaway:
Focus on continuation setups in semiconductors (AMAT, MU) and industrials (ETN, CAT) where momentum and volume align with the bullish tape. Use pullbacks near support levels for entries, maintaining tight stops below key intraday demand zones. Avoid extended tech names showing late-session fade and be prepared for mild profit-taking into resistance. Small caps and airlines (UAL) remain attractive for swing entries if risk sentiment holds.

**Watchlist**
[Continuation]: AMAT (S1: 274.5, S2: 271.5, S3: 268.5, R1: 276, R2: 279, R3: 282)
[Anticipation]: MU (S1: 263, S2: 261.5, S3: 259, R1: 264, R2: 266, R3: 268.5)

12/08/2025

12/9 Cautiously Bullish. 280 Buying | 220 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bearish. Primary Indicator is Bullish. 20% Weekly is Neutral.
The market edges lower amid cautious positioning ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate cut decision, with tech leadership limiting losses despite broad sector weakness.
Information Technology (+1.0%) stands out as the lone sector gaining, while Communication Services (-1.8%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.5%) lag amid mega-cap selling and downgrade pressure. Volatility remains subdued with VXX near lows, supporting a generally calm risk environment.
Tomorrow’s catalyst: FOMC meeting with an expected 25-basis-point rate cut but a potentially hawkish tone on future easing. November NFIB Small Business Optimism and Treasury reopenings also scheduled.

Key Takeaway:
Traders should focus on selective tech and industrial names showing late-day accumulation and volume expansion for 1–3 day continuation plays. Avoid fading weak consumer discretionary and communication names under downgrade pressure. Manage risk tightly given mixed breadth and upcoming Fed event, favoring entries near support with clear stop-loss levels.

Watchlist
[Continuation]: AMD (S1: 220, S2: 219.5, S3: 219.5, R1: 221, R2: 222, R3: 223)
ETN (S1: 343, S2: 342, S3: 341.5, R1: 344, R2: 345.5, R3: 349)

[Anticipation]: ASML (S1: 1116, S2: 1114, S3: 1110, R1: 1120, R2: 1125, R3: 1130)
QCOM (S1: 174.5, S2: 174, S3: 173.5, R1: 175, R2: 175.5, R3: 176)

12/05/2025

12/8 Bearish. 200 Buying | 260 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bullish. Primary Indicator is Bullish. 20% Weekly is Bullish - Caution.
The market showed modest gains with low urgency ahead of next week’s FOMC, as inflation data remained sticky but the Fed rate cut expectations stayed largely intact.
Communication Services led sector gains, helped by mega-cap strength in Alphabet and Meta, while Retail and Utilities lagged notably; volatility remained subdued with VXX stable.
Upcoming catalyst: December FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday and Treasury auctions starting Monday.
Key Takeaway:
Traders should remain cautious given bearish volume imbalance despite bullish price indicators. Focus on high-quality momentum names in tech and communication services while avoiding weak retail and energy sectors. Use dips near key supports for entries and watch for potential volatility around Wednesday’s Fed decision.

**Watchlist**
[Continuation]: AVGO (S1: 389, S2: 388.5, S3: 387.5, R1: 392.5, R2: 395, R3: 400)
[Anticipation]: ORCL (S1: 216.5, S2: 216, S3: 215.5, R1: 218.5, R2: 219, R3: 220.5)

12/04/2025

12/5 Bullish. 500 Buying | 100 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bullish. Primary Indicator is Bullish. 20% Weekly is Bullish - Caution.
The market drifted sideways with tight breadth as investors await Friday’s PCE report, maintaining a cautious bullish tone ahead of expected Fed rate cut signals.
Tech and consumer discretionary sectors showed pockets of strength, led by Meta’s AI pivot and strong retail names, while semiconductors and healthcare lagged; VXX volatility remained subdued supporting risk appetite.
Friday’s key catalyst is the September PCE Price Index release, which may influence early 2026 Fed policy expectations despite rate cut pricing largely baked in.
Key Takeaway:
Swing traders should focus on selective continuation setups in resilient sectors like industrials and consumer discretionary, while avoiding semiconductors until they reclaim intraday VWAP resistance. Use tight stops given mixed sector breadth and watch for PCE-driven volatility spikes. Favor entries near support on leaders showing volume-backed breakouts and scale out into resistance zones.

Watchlist
[Continuation]: FIX (S1: 998, S2: 994.5, S3: 991, R1: 1006.5, R2: 1015, R3: 1025)
[Anticipation]: BA (S1: 200, S2: 199.5, S3: 198.5, R1: 202.5, R2: 204, R3: 205.5)

12/04/2025

12/4 Cautiously Bullish. 650 Buying | 150 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bullish. Primary Indicator is Bullish. 20% Weekly is Neutral.
The market extended its rebound with broad sector participation despite tech weakness, positioning ahead of next week’s FOMC decision.
Semiconductors led with strong momentum and relative volume, while energy and financials showed notable strength; retail and consumer discretionary remain soft. VXX remains subdued, signaling limited fear despite mixed price action.
Key economic data showed a modest slowdown in industrial capacity utilization, implying easing inflation pressures.
Key Takeaway: Swing traders should focus on semiconductor and select AI/software leaders showing strong volume and momentum for continuation plays. Avoid broad retail exposure given ongoing weakness. Use intraday pullbacks to key support zones for entries, and maintain tight stops given mixed mega-cap tech signals and upcoming Fed event risk.

**Watchlist**
[Continuation]: PLTR (S1: 175.0, S2: 174.5, S3: 174.5, R1: 176.5, R2: 177.5, R3: 180.0)
[Anticipation]: TER (S1: 195.0, S2: 194.5, S3: 194.0, R1: 196.0, R2: 197.5, R3: 198.5)

12/02/2025

12/3 Bearish. 210 Buying | 240 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bullish. Primary Indicator is Bearish - Caution. 20% Weekly is Neutral.
The market showed modest gains led by tech and mega-cap strength despite choppy action and late-day distribution, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Semiconductors and chip equipment saw broad late-day selling except for TXN’s relative strength; industrials showed leadership from GWW, CAT, and KEYS. Metals/miners and select consumer names like COST also demonstrated momentum. VXX remained stable, suggesting contained volatility.
Tomorrow’s key catalysts include the November ADP Employment Change and ISM Services reports, which could drive near-term market direction.

Key Takeaway:
Traders should be selective and focus on relative strength leaders like TXN, GWW, KEYS, and CAT for swing entries on pullbacks or breakouts, while avoiding weak semis and storage/AI-adjacent names like PSTG due to after-hours volatility. Maintaining tight stops below key supports is advised given the late-session distribution and bearish primary indicator. Monitor sector rotation and volume for confirmation before committing.

**Watchlist**
[Continuation]: TXN (S1: 175.5, S2: 174.5, S3: 174.0, R1: 177.0, R2: 177.5, R3: 178.0)
[Anticipation]: COST (S1: 919, S2: 915, S3: 912, R1: 923, R2: 928, R3: 930)

11/24/2025

11/25 Cautiously Bullish. 480 Buying | 110 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bullish. Primary Indicator is Bearish - Caution. 20% Weekly is Bullish.

The market showed solid gains led by mega-cap tech and communication services amid rising rate-cut expectations for December, supporting a cautiously optimistic tone. Nasdaq outperformed with strong momentum in AI and chip stocks, while defensive sectors lagged. Volatility (VXX) declined, reflecting reduced fear and stable conditions.

Healthcare and biotech sectors demonstrated strong late-day momentum and closing strength, signaling potential continuation setups in names like MDGL, JAZZ, and SLDB. Consumer discretionary showed mixed action with some breakout candidates. Materials and industrials were mixed but showed pockets of strength.

Upcoming catalysts include Tuesday’s PPI, Retail Sales, and Consumer Confidence data, which may influence near-term sentiment and momentum.

Key Takeaway:
Focus on continuation setups in healthcare and biotech stocks showing rising volume and strong closes near highs, while monitoring mega-cap tech leadership for broader market direction. Use tight stops below key support levels to manage risk amid mixed breadth and a cautious primary indicator. Avoid laggard consumer discretionary and speculative names without clear volume support.

**Watchlist**
[Continuation]: AS (S1: 35.5, S2: 35.5, S3: 35.5, R1: 36, R2: 36.5, R3: 37)
[Anticipation]: REGN (S1: 765, S2: 761.5, S3: 760, R1: 768, R2: 770, R3: 775)

Wave Rider

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