12/26/2025
In light of the reported U.S. strike on alleged ISIS targets in Sokoto on Christmas Day, rather than in more established conflict theatres such as Borno, Plateau, or Benue, understandable questions have emerged. Chief among them are concerns about the quality and accuracy of the intelligence that informed the strike, and whether the Nigerian government actively collaborated with the United States in the operation.
At present, no one can answer these questions with certainty.
What I am doing is this: I am currently conducting a computer-aided probabilistic analysis to assess both the likelihood of meaningful U.S.–Nigeria operational cooperation and, more importantly, the probability that the intelligence behind the strike was accurate. However, I will share that deeper analysis on a paid platform elsewhere.
For now, however, I think, the Nigerian audience—especially those on Facebook, might appreciate one key context: Nigeria is widely regarded as possessing the most sophisticated intelligence architecture in Africa, based on comparative institutional strengths and operational reach. We can leave questions of Nigeria's political will to tackle terrorists for another day.
As we continue to process the implications of U.S. strikes occurring outside traditional front lines of terrorism, here is how Africa’s Top Five Intelligence Agencies broadly stack up:
Nigeria (Department of State Services — DSS)
Role: Domestic intelligence, counterterrorism, internal security
Strengths:
Deep nationwide presence and local intelligence pe*******on.
Central role in counterterrorism and counter-subversion.
Strong presidential and state security mandate.
Reputation: One of the most influential internal security services in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Egypt (General Directorate of State Security)
Role: Internal security, counterterrorism, political intelligence
Strengths:
Long institutional history and professional bureaucracy.
Strong counter-insurgency and urban intelligence experience.
Tight integration with military and regional intelligence networks.
South Africa (State Security Agency)
Role: Domestic and foreign intelligence, counterintelligence.
Strengths:
Advanced analytical and legal-institutional framework
Strong counterintelligence and strategic assessment capacity
Experience in cyber, economic, and political intelligence
Ethiopia (National Intelligence and Security Service).
Role: National security, counterinsurgency, regional surveillance.
Strengths:
Extensive counterinsurgency experience
Strong regional reach in the Horn of Africa
Effective integration with military and federal forces
Algeria (Directorate General for Documentation and Security).
Role: Internal security, counterterrorism, defence intelligence.
Strengths:
Deep counterterrorism expertise built over decades
Strong military–intelligence fusion
Effective border, desert, and transnational threat monitoring
As debate continues, one point remains clear: precision strikes presume precision intelligence. Understanding the intelligence ecosystems involved is essential before drawing firm conclusions about intent, error, or collaboration.