03/19/2025
**A Low-Level Risk for Severe Weather Exists Wednesday, March 19**
First and foremost, this is not a particularly concerning risk of severe weather, however there are a few oddities that make tomorrow interesting.
To have a "successful" thunderstorm develop, you need wind shear, lift, instability, and moisture. Tomorrow, lift and wind shear are impressive enough to warrant this post, but instability and moisture are modest at best. As new model guidance comes out about this system, an updated post will likely be necessary.
Storms are possible in central to north central Illinois by 2 PM CDT. A few of these storms, due to the impressive shear, have the potential to become supercellular. Due to the lack of moisture, though, these are not expected to get very high into the atmosphere which limits the likelihood of tornadoes as well as hail.
By around 6, the storm should form into a line as it progresses eastward. Some aspects of this are very similar to what happened early Saturday morning which is why my personal forecast includes a very low-end tornado risk extending into Indiana.
Because of all of this, it is in my best interest as a forecaster to suggest that all types of severe weather are possible tomorrow, but are not particularly likely. Nearly everyone in NWI will receive a thunderstorm, but the largest risk for all is strong-severe winds. Make sure you have a reliable way to receive warnings.
Note: I am currently in my third year of school for meteorology, but I am not (yet) in name or profession a meteorologist. I certainly know what I am talking about, but it is always wise to follow storm outlooks and forecasts from the best of the best at www.spc.noaa.gov or www.weather.gov/lot . Please do not buy into the "hype" pages that post colorful and often exaggerated graphics to boost engagement!
I will try and get out to central Illinois to do some storm spotting and will update as necessary!
*Maps provided by ESRI, forecast is my own using numerical weather prediction*