01/12/2026
A CLOSER LOOK AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY
You may remember my post from yesterday highlighting the possibility of a few snowflakes Wednesday night into Thursday. I also mentioned that we were still a few days out, and that a lot could change between now and then. Unfortunately for my snow lovers out there, the overnight data is not your friend…
Below are the latest probabilities from both the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) ensemble models, showing the chance of at least 1” of snowfall.
👉 An ensemble means the model is run many different times with slightly different conditions, giving us probabilities instead of just one single forecast.
• White areas = little to no chance
• Blue shades = around a 10–20% chance
• Red shades = near 100% chance
The circled area represents Southern Middle Tennessee, and as you can see, the current data supports little to no chance of accumulating snow. Yesterday, the chance of 1” of snow was near 50%. Talk about a quick turnaround!
Could we still see a few flakes or a very brief dusting? Sure. But the latest guidance suggests that most of the moisture will be gone before the cold air truly settles in.
This is exactly why I didn’t mention snowfall totals or specifics yesterday. As I stated in yesterday’s post, snowfall events around here are fragile, and they require a lot of ingredients to line up just right. For now, it looks like better luck next time, snow fans….
There is another weak system I’m watching this weekend that could bring some light snow showers, but we’re still too far out for specifics.
📘 More details are coming in this afternoon’s Weather Blog and in today’s Kirby’s Weather Snapshot video.
Stay with Southern Tennessee Weather on the app, on the 24/7 channel, and on stnweather.com for updates every day NO MATTER THE WEATHER!