Southern Tennessee Weather

11/23/2025

November has definitely been the month of bottom-feeder Marginal Risks, and it looks like that trend continues with our next system Monday night into Tuesday. This is more of a heads up than anything else. I don’t want you hearing chatter from other pages and wondering why I haven’t mentioned it, but there just isn’t much to get worked up about right now.

Like the last setup, this one is very conditional and depends on a few ingredients lining up. We will have the wind energy aloft, but the big question is instability, or the “storm fuel.” At this point, that looks pretty limited here at home, and the better chance for any stronger storms appears to be south of our area.

Another thing working against a higher-end threat is the overall timing of the setup. This looks to come through sometime between midnight and midday Tuesday, and it usually takes a much more volatile pattern to get severe storms around here at that time of day.

Timing and details will become clearer as we get closer. I will have fresh updates tomorrow! In the meantime, enjoy the beautiful weather today!

11/22/2025

SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE 7-DAY FORECAST
- A beautiful Sunday is ahead with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s.
- Monday stays dry, but clouds will increase ahead of our next system. Widespread showers and a few storms are likely Tuesday, with 0.5 to 2 inches of rain possible. The severe weather threat looks very low at this time.
- A cold front moves through Wednesday, clearing us out and cooling us down just in time for Thanksgiving. Turkey Day looks dry with below-average highs in the 50s, and we’ll see freezing or sub-freezing lows Thursday and Friday morning.
- Our next storm system looks to arrive Saturday night into Sunday of next weekend, but timing and details are still uncertain for now.
- More updates on Tuesday’s system will be coming as we get closer. Have a GREAT Saturday!

11/22/2025

10:00 PM Weather Update: There’s been no real change in my thinking since this afternoon’s blog post. The latest short-range model guidance continues to be very unimpressed with tonight’s storm setup, which Isn’t a surprise if you read the blog earlier.

I still expect a few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder overnight, mainly between midnight and 5 AM. But the risk for strong or severe storms is about as close to zero as it gets. That doesn’t mean it is zero, though.

If a warning were to be issued for any reason, it will automatically post here, and the Southern Tennessee Weather app will send a push alert as well. The 24/7 weather channel is always on YouTube with the latest info too. But based on everything I’m seeing, there is no reason to stay up and monitor this threat…

With that being said, unless something major changes in the next little bit, this will be my last update for the evening! Have a GREAT night!

11/21/2025

Friday evening’s weather blog is now live! We’re tracking a very low-end severe weather setup overnight as a cold front approaches the region. A few showers and storms are expected between midnight and 5 AM, and while a rogue stronger storm can’t be ruled out, the overall threat remains low.

In today’s blog, I break down:
• Why the severe threat is minimal
• A simple explanation of instability (CAPE) and lapse rates and why tonight’s numbers don’t support strong storms
• What the SPC’s 2% tornado / 5% wind probabilities actually mean
• Timing for tonight’s activity
• What to expect this weekend
• A first look at Monday–Tuesday’s system and a cooler, fall-feeling Thanksgiving

If anything changes tonight, I’ll update all platforms! Read the full blog on the STN Weather App, the website, or by clicking the link below.

Today’s blog is running just a little behind schedule, but for good reason! I wanted to give time for the afternoon suite of short-range weather models to finish running so we could have the freshest possible data. Now that we have it, here’s what you can expect:

11/21/2025

PROGRAMMING NOTE: This afternoon’s weather blog will be posted a little later than usual. I’m waiting on the afternoon weather model data to come in so we can have a clearer picture of tonight’s shower and storm potential.

Thanks for your patience and stay tuned! 🌧️⚡️

11/21/2025

The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a low end MARGINAL risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms later today.

As of this morning, this still looks like a very conditional setup, meaning several key ingredients would need to come together for storms to become severe. In Thursday’s blog post, I mentioned that a few of those ingredients were missing, and based on the latest data, I’m still not seeing a strong signal that they’ll line up here locally. That said, there is a *small* risk on the table, so I wanted to make sure it’s clearly communicated.

I’ll be watching data trends closely throughout the day. More updates, including a blog post, will be out later today with the latest information.

11/21/2025

Weather Alert: Dense Fog Advisory for Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, Morgan, Jackson, Moore, Lincoln, Franklin

Severity: Moderate
Certainty: Likely
Urgency: Expected

*
WHAT...Visibility one quarter to one half mile in dense fog. *
WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. *
WHEN...Until 8 AM CST this morning. *

IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

Stay tuned to Southern Tennessee Weather for additional information!

11/21/2025

Weather Alert: Dense Fog Advisory for Stewart, Montgomery, Robertson, Sumner, Macon, Clay, Pickett, Houston, Humphreys, Dickson, Cheatham, Davidson, Wilson, Trousdale, Smith, Jackson, Putnam, Overton, Fentress, Perry, Hickman, Lewis, Williamson, Maury, Marshall, Rutherford, Cannon, De Kalb, White, Cumberland, Bedford, Coffee, Warren, Grundy, Van Buren, Wayne, Lawrence, Giles

Severity: Moderate
Certainty: Likely
Urgency: Expected

*
WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog. *
WHERE...All of Middle Tennessee. *
WHEN...Until 8 AM CST this morning. *

IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

Stay tuned to Southern Tennessee Weather for additional information!

11/21/2025

11/20/2025

Thursday’s Weather Blog is now live. We’ve got multiple rounds of rain and a few rumbles of thunder moving through over the next 48 hours. Today’s showers are just “Round 1,” with two more rounds arriving Friday afternoon and Friday night as a cold front pushes through.

Inside today’s blog, we break down:
• Today’s rain and what to expect tonight
• The timing for Friday’s two rounds of showers/storms
• Why the severe threat remains very low
• Rainfall totals through Friday (0.5–1", isolated 2")
• What the weekend looks like after the rain clears
• A look ahead to next Monday–Tuesday’s system and a cooler Thanksgiving week

Read the full blog now on the STN Weather App, website, or by clicking the link below!

I mentioned this on social media yesterday, but I wanted to share it again here for those who follow the blog but not my other platforms. (And if you aren’t following yet, you can find all my social links right here )!

11/20/2025

Widespread showers (with a few rumbles of thunder mixed in) are moving into the area as we head deeper into the 1:00 hour.
Right now, the activity is mainly focused over Marshall and Maury counties, but this band of rain will spread across the entire region over the next few hours.

No severe weather concerns this afternoon... just some good, old-fashioned rain! You can track the activity on our FREE Southern Tennessee Weather Smartphone App, stnweather.com/radar , and the 24/7 STN Weather Channel on YouTube!

11/20/2025

I had a great time this morning at Americare - Celebration Way speaking to their residents!