09/21/2026
⚠️ AFTERNOON MODEL UPDATE: POTENTIAL NOR’EASTER
The models continue to be all over the place with the potential coastal storm later this week into the weekend. The GFS has made another major shift and now keeps the system well offshore, while the European guidance remains much more aggressive with a stronger storm closer to the coast.
GFS — miss / well offshore
AI-GFS — mainly offshore, minor impacts at most
EURO — strong hit with a potentially longer-duration event
AI-EURO — continues to favor a stronger coastal storm
ICON — still leaning toward a hit
There’s still plenty of time for these solutions to change, and I expect more back-and-forth over the next couple of days. The big question remains how close this storm gets to Long Island. I’ll keep watching each new model run and update as the picture becomes clearer.