Matt’s Weather Page - Gulf Coast Weather

03/14/2025

VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED TOMORROW

A long duration, significant severe weather event is expected to occur tomorrow, Saturday, March 15th. The SPC has had the Gulf Coast under a MODERATE 4/5 risk for severe weather for the past day, and it is well advertised to be even worse further inland. Multiple, long track, and potentially violent tornadoes are expected along the I-20/59 corridor from Jackson MS to Birmingham AL. For the coast, the threat will likely peak later than inland with a broken line of potentially tornadic storms after sunset. Any thunderstorms that develop in the warm sector tomorrow will become capable of producing strong tornadoes, with violent (EF4+) tornadoes possible in individual supercells ahead of the cold front. The main severe event will begin around 10am-noon tomorrow in Eastern Louisiana to southwestern Mississippi. These storms will track rapidly east northeast into an extremely favorable thermodynamic and shear profile that will be present near the I-59 corridor. Places such as Hattiesburg, Meridian, Laurel, Demopolis, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and ares shaded in the red and especially pink areas on this map are at a very high risk of severe weather.

Not everyone will see thunderstorms tomorrow, especially closer to the coast. However, those that do form, will be capable of destructive tornadoes, large hail golf ball size or larger, and damaging winds in excess of hurricane force. Pay close attention to the weather tomorrow, and have several means to get warnings. If you live in a manufactured or mobile home, have a means to stay somewhere else as soon as the Tornado WATCH comes out. By the time a warning is issued, you will have only minutes.

01/21/2025

Once-in-a-lifetime winter storm is underway! Widespread 3-5 inches likely with some places along the I-10 corridor likely exceeding half a foot! Now is the time, avoid any and all travel the next 12-24 hours!

01/19/2025

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER FORECAST TUESDAY 1/21

An extremely rare winter storm setup for the Gulf Coast Region has now come into the picture for this upcoming storm system on Tuesday. A couple of scenarios seem possible, but the models are leaning toward an all snow scenario for the central Gulf Coast and a significant icing event from PCB east throughout northern Florida into Southern Georgia. Regardless of what exactly plays out, there will be EXTREMELY dangerous travel conditions throughout the Deep South.

Scenario 1:
At this time, this appears to be the most likely scenario as indicated by the models. The storm system would track more southerly which would keep a mid level warm nose out of the region, leading to the entire atmospheric column to be below freezing. This would lead to an all snow event for most of the Gulf Coast with some ice and sleet along the immediate coast. This has potential to be a historic snow for the Mobile area, with 2-4 inches looking to be about the range of snowfall potential for the area. Some areas may exceed 5 inches in isolated locations, especially along the I-65 corridor. Areas along the coast such as Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola, and Dauphin Island could see a wintry mix of sleet and ice that will turn over to all snow by Tuesday evening. Highs on Tuesday will either only briefly rise above freezing in the morning or stay below freezing throughout, which would cause snow to quickly accumulate on roads and especially bridges.

Scenario 2:
This scenario is looking less likely at this point, but is a possibility. If the storm track changes about 50 miles north of its current forecast, the Gulf Coast would see a wintry mess of freezing rain, sleet, ice, and then snow at the end. This would lead to significant ice accumulations and possibly widespread power outages across the area. Ice accretion would likely exceed a quarter inch throughout the coastal counties, with an additional inch or so of snow on the back end of the system as it pulls through. This will weigh down trees and power lines, and with a brisk northeast wind will cause many trees to snap and fall. This would be a more impactful and damaging event than scenario 1 for infrastructure means and could lead to extended power outages in an area not used to the extreme cold.

The temperature will likely remain below freezing until Wednesday afternoon, which would cause roads to remain iced over until then. Snow will also remain for over a day in most locations. This will be a heavy, wet snow that will pack down easily. While good for making snowballs and snowmen for the kids, it will be very difficult to move as it will be dense and heavy.

Temperatures will begin to drop TONIGHT with the cold front passing this evening. Highs tomorrow will only touch 50 degrees, and then we likely will not see the thermometer near 50 until next Saturday. Lows overnight will be dangerously cold, with wind chills in the single digits and teens each morning from Monday morning through Thursday morning. Bundle up!

If you can at all avoid travel Tuesday through Wednesday do so! Ensure you have appropriate cold weather supplies for the next several days. If you must travel during the storm, ensure you carry with you a first aid kit, water, and be prepared to take it SLOWLY.

11/18/2024

A couple of low end severe thunderstorm threats Monday night and then throughout the day Tuesday. Damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes are the main threats. The threat looks minimal at the moment, but appears to be greatest Tuesday. Regardless another couple inches of rain are likely Monday night into Tuesday.

11/14/2024

A few storms just offshore are showing signs of rotation just offshore. Severe weather is possible… but unlikely at this point in time. Just something to keep an eye on this evening.

11/11/2024

New area to watch in the Caribbean in the hurricane season that won’t quit. Some models show potential for this one to also enter the Gulf. If it does it would likely be a Florida problem given the forecasted upper winds at that time, but it’s too early to make any call. There’s a decent chance it doesn’t form and an even better chance it ends up in the Atlantic.

11/11/2024

Coastal rains continue today from the remnants of Hurricane Rafael. Most areas have seen at least an inch or two of very beneficial rain making a dent in the deficits. Some true fall weather looks to be coming in a week or so… I’ll have an update on that later.

11/09/2024

We continue the record highs. I swear winter is coming eventually.

RER issued by NWS MOB at 09 Nov 2024 22:23 UTC

11/09/2024

Crazy warm for this time of year, especially at night.

Temperatures are forecast to eventually nudge closer to normal in about one week. Until that happens, we will need to endure temperatures well above normal as lows tonight are only expected to dip to between 67 to 73 degrees. These temperatures are 20 to 25 degrees above normal.

11/08/2024

11/08/2024

remains a powerful hurricane this morning slowly meandering over the Gulf. It will continue to churn the Gulf waters and increase the likelihood of scattered showers, but impacts to the Gulf Coast region will be limited to that at this point. Have a good weekend everyone!

11/07/2024

Update on Rafael this evening. It has emerged into the Gulf off of Cuba and remains a powerful hurricane. It is lashing the Florida Keys with squalls, tropical storm force winds, and high seas. Aircraft recon still has it at or near category 3 intensity. The storm will probably reorganize somewhat over the southern Gulf as the shear is still light, the waters warm enough there, and the dry air holding off for now. No big changes with still a lot of uncertainty in the long term forecast. It may hold its strength for a while longer while it remains over the Gulf, which would continue to contribute to a high rip current risk at the beaches and significant waves in the Gulf. The moisture surrounding it will also likely contribute to an increase in rain chances which is beneficial at this point for most of the northern gulf coast.

The storm will likely begin to weaken this weekend, and will start falling apart probably around Monday or Tuesday depending on how hostile the environment over the track is.