04/06/2026
Did mortgage rates just hit their peak for the year? In this week’s Master the Markets, host and expert Bill Bodnar breaks down a strong bond market rebound following what could prove to be the high-water mark for rates just weeks ago. After peaking near 4.50%, the 10-year Treasury has pulled back toward the 4.35% range, offering a meaningful shift in momentum.
What makes this move even more notable? The rebound came despite solid economic data, including a firm jobs report — a sign that markets may already be pricing in broader risks and looking ahead.
But the story isn’t over. The biggest wildcard remains geopolitics and oil prices, with crude holding above $100 per barrel amid ongoing tensions involving Iran. That keeps inflation risks elevated and puts a ceiling on how far rates can fall in the near term.
This week brings critical data into focus, including Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) and CPI, both of which could confirm whether inflation is cooling — or reaccelerating. Meanwhile, the 4.35% level on the 10-year becomes a key battleground for rate direction.