Jersey Shore Hurricane News

09/25/2026

***TIDAL FLOODING UPDATE 9/25 afternoon*** For several days, we’ve been advising that major coastal flooding could not be ruled out, consistent with National Weather Service guidance. That possibility is now explicitly in the forecast: Saturday morning is forecast to reach major flood stage at each of these gauges from Raritan Bay through Cape May.

Most are forecast only at or just above the major flood threshold, but these are still significant water levels, and this is a multi-tide event.

Perth Amboy: 9.3 ft MLLW -- major. Higher than October 2025. Sandy produced dramatically higher flooding across the Raritan Bay/New York Harbor region.

Sandy Hook: 8.7 ft -- major. Higher than October 2025. During Sandy, the water rose above 13 ft before the gauge failed -- more than 4 ft above Saturday’s forecast.

Manasquan: 7.7 ft -- major. Higher than October 2025, but still several feet below Sandy.

Barnegat Light: 5.6 ft — major. Higher than October 2025 (4.9’) and particularly notable historically. Sandy reached about 6.4 ft MLLW, only around 0.8 ft higher. Sandy’s overall impacts, however, were far more severe, including major surge, waves, overwash and barrier island breaching.

Ocean City: 7.4 ft -- major. Higher than October 2025. Sandy reached about 9.3 ft, nearly 2 ft higher.

Cape May: 8.3 ft -- major. Higher than October 2025. Sandy reached about 8.9 ft, roughly 0.6 ft higher.

Barnegat Light, Ocean City and Manasquan are especially useful indicators of back-bay flooding, while Sandy Hook and Perth Amboy characterize the northern coastal/Raritan Bay area. The gauge forecast is a reference point for the surrounding tidal basin; it doesn't mean every street in that community reaches the gauge's stated elevation.

So while this is not expected to approach Sandy’s overall magnitude or impacts, Saturday’s forecast represents historically significant water levels at several locations and is running above the October 2025 nor’easter at these gauges.

And this is not one bad high tide: moderate flooding is forecast tonight, major flooding Saturday morning, followed by additional moderate flooding Saturday evening and Sunday morning before water levels gradually subside.

The key change is not that major flooding suddenly became possible; that risk has been on the table for days. The change is that major flooding is now explicitly forecast at multiple gauges for Saturday morning.

(Image: Long Beach Boulevard, LBI, Oct. 2025 - courtesy Sandi Wenstrom Messina)

09/25/2026

One reason the power outage risk is elevated, especially along the immediate coast, is that trees are still fully leafed out. Leaves catch more wind, increasing stress on branches and whole trees.

According to National Weather Service wind damage guidance, gusts in the 45-55 mph range can begin breaking limbs, while gusts around 55–60 mph and higher can bring down larger limbs and shallow-rooted trees, increasing the risk of outages.

That lines up with the current coastal forecast, where NWS is calling for 30–40 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 60 mph tonight into tomorrow.

NWS says the wind threat may need to be extended into Sunday. If the low stays farther offshore, winds should be less concerning; if it tracks closer to the coast, gusts of 40–60 mph could continue near the immediate coast Sunday.

Isaias in August 2020 offers useful context: with trees in full summer foliage, widespread 60–70+ mph gusts caused extensive tree damage, which NJBPU identified as the primary driver of outages. More than 1.3 million NJ customers were without power at peak.

This weekend is not expected to approach that statewide outage scale or wind speeds, but along the immediate coast, where gusts reach 50–60 mph, scattered outages and localized pockets of more significant disruption are possible.

09/25/2026

Manasquan OEM is recommending a voluntary evacuation for Tier 1 residents in non-elevated, flood prone structures, particularly elderly and special needs residents, as significant coastal flooding is expected through the weekend. Manasquan OEM says areas of concern include the beachfront, locations within two blocks of the Glimmer Glass and Watsons Creek, and areas adjacent to Stockton Lake.

High tides at Manasquan Inlet are 7:58 p.m. Friday, 8:20 a.m. Saturday, 8:36 p.m. Saturday and 8:56 a.m. Sunday. OEM warns that roads may become impassable for several hours and flooding could persist across multiple tide cycles. The borough is flood-prone.

At Watson Creek in Manasquan, Saturday morning is currently forecast at 6.9 feet MLLW (moderate flood stage). Sunday morning is also forecast to reach moderate flood stage.

Residents in vulnerable areas should move vehicles to higher ground before flooding begins and avoid flooded roads and barricades.

09/25/2026

***IMPORTANT UPDATE: https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1528311099334639&set=a.550955007070258 // numbers below are now OLD - click image to updated post

A number of people are asking whether this weekend could be like Sandy. Based on the forecast, the answer is NO!

This is nowhere close to Sandy.

Sandy was a completely different scale of coastal disaster. At Sandy Hook, NOAA recorded a 13.23-foot storm tide above MLLW, including an 8.56-foot storm surge. Along the central Shore, ocean water crossed the barrier island, destroyed homes and roads, and at Mantoloking cut completely through to the Barnegat Bay.

The current NWS forecast is NOT describing anything remotely similar. It is calling for a moderate to locally major coastal flooding event, not catastrophic ocean overwash, widespread structural destruction or barrier island failure.

For Barnegat Bay, October 2025 is the much better comparison. At the Barnegat Light gauge, the water level reached about 4.9 feet MLLW during that storm, compared with roughly 9 feet MLLW or higher during Sandy. The current forecast is about 5.1 feet MLLW Saturday morning, firmly in moderate flood stage and only 0.4 feet below major flood stage. So while this is running slightly above October 2025, it remains nowhere remotely near Sandy.

At that level, the concern is significant back-bay flooding, with water covering low-lying roads, flooding bayside neighborhoods and lagoons, and making some roads impassable. If your property flooded during last October’s storm, you should be prepared for flooding again. The current forecast calls for 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground in vulnerable areas.

So no, Sandy or anything similar is NOT coming again.

For homeowners trying to understand what a particular water level could mean where they live, NOAA’s Coastal Inundation Dashboard and Inundation History are useful tools for comparing forecast and observed water levels with past storms at individual tide gauges.

***TIDAL FLOODING UPDATE 9/25 afternoon*** For several days, we’ve been advising that major coastal flooding could not be ruled out, consistent with National Weather Service guidance. That possibility is now explicitly in the forecast: Saturday morning is forecast to reach major flood stage at each of these gauges from Raritan Bay through Cape May.

Most are forecast only at or just above the major flood threshold, but these are still significant water levels, and this is a multi-tide event.

Perth Amboy: 9.3 ft MLLW -- major. Higher than October 2025. Sandy produced dramatically higher flooding across the Raritan Bay/New York Harbor region.

Sandy Hook: 8.7 ft -- major. Higher than October 2025. During Sandy, the water rose above 13 ft before the gauge failed -- more than 4 ft above Saturday’s forecast.

Manasquan: 7.7 ft -- major. Higher than October 2025, but still several feet below Sandy.

Barnegat Light: 5.6 ft — major. Higher than October 2025 (4.9’) and particularly notable historically. Sandy reached about 6.4 ft MLLW, only around 0.8 ft higher. Sandy’s overall impacts, however, were far more severe, including major surge, waves, overwash and barrier island breaching.

Ocean City: 7.4 ft -- major. Higher than October 2025. Sandy reached about 9.3 ft, nearly 2 ft higher.

Cape May: 8.3 ft -- major. Higher than October 2025. Sandy reached about 8.9 ft, roughly 0.6 ft higher.

Barnegat Light, Ocean City and Manasquan are especially useful indicators of back-bay flooding, while Sandy Hook and Perth Amboy characterize the northern coastal/Raritan Bay area. The gauge forecast is a reference point for the surrounding tidal basin; it doesn't mean every street in that community reaches the gauge's stated elevation.

So while this is not expected to approach Sandy’s overall magnitude or impacts, Saturday’s forecast represents historically significant water levels at several locations and is running above the October 2025 nor’easter at these gauges.

And this is not one bad high tide: moderate flooding is forecast tonight, major flooding Saturday morning, followed by additional moderate flooding Saturday evening and Sunday morning before water levels gradually subside.

The key change is not that major flooding suddenly became possible; that risk has been on the table for days. The change is that major flooding is now explicitly forecast at multiple gauges for Saturday morning.

(Image: Long Beach Boulevard, LBI, Oct. 2025 - courtesy Sandi Wenstrom Messina)

09/25/2026

***IMPORTANT UPDATE: https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1528311099334639&set=a.550955007070258 // below is now OLD - click image to updated post

Some of the most flood prone back bay and tidal waterway communities, particularly around the Barnegat Bay, the current forecast points to significant flooding at the higher end of the moderate category Saturday morning.

NWS says major flooding is not the official forecast, but it cannot be ruled out in the Barnegat Bay area.

The most impactful tide cycles for back bay flooding are expected Friday evening and especially Saturday morning. At Barnegat Light, the Saturday high water forecast is centered around 8 a.m., although high time comes later within the bay and lagoons.

If you have a vehicle in a low lying flood prone area, or first floor belongings or living space vulnerable to tidal flooding, today is the time to prepare and move what you can to higher ground.

Context matters. During the October 2025 storm, Barnegat Light reached about 4.9 feet, its fourth highest level since 2000. Serious flooding occurred across central and southern LBI, while the Waretown gauge farther inside Barnegat Bay reached major flood stage.

For Saturday morning, Barnegat Light is currently forecast around 5.1 feet, firmly in moderate flood stage, slightly higher than last October and just 0.4 feet below major flood stage.

The biggest caveat is that Barnegat Light is near the inlet and does not tell us exactly how the interior back bay will respond. Water levels can vary substantially around Barnegat Bay, and this warning product does not provide point forecasts for Ship Bottom or Waretown. That uncertainty matters for bayside LBI, Waretown and mainland lagoon communities.

Impacts will vary considerably by location. This does not mean every coastal community will see flooding of this magnitude. The concern here is specifically the most vulnerable back bay, bayside and lagoon areas. NWS is forecasting one to two feet of inundation above ground in vulnerable locations in the warning area, with widespread roadway flooding and many roads potentially becoming impassable.

Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect. Ocean, Atlantic, and Cape May have been in the warning, and Monmouth was upgraded from advisory to warning last night.

Preparedness and situational awareness are critical.

***TIDAL FLOODING UPDATE 9/25 afternoon*** For several days, we’ve been advising that major coastal flooding could not be ruled out, consistent with National Weather Service guidance. That possibility is now explicitly in the forecast: Saturday morning is forecast to reach major flood stage at each of these gauges from Raritan Bay through Cape May.

Most are forecast only at or just above the major flood threshold, but these are still significant water levels, and this is a multi-tide event.

Perth Amboy: 9.3 ft MLLW -- major. Higher than October 2025. Sandy produced dramatically higher flooding across the Raritan Bay/New York Harbor region.

Sandy Hook: 8.7 ft -- major. Higher than October 2025. During Sandy, the water rose above 13 ft before the gauge failed -- more than 4 ft above Saturday’s forecast.

Manasquan: 7.7 ft -- major. Higher than October 2025, but still several feet below Sandy.

Barnegat Light: 5.6 ft — major. Higher than October 2025 (4.9’) and particularly notable historically. Sandy reached about 6.4 ft MLLW, only around 0.8 ft higher. Sandy’s overall impacts, however, were far more severe, including major surge, waves, overwash and barrier island breaching.

Ocean City: 7.4 ft -- major. Higher than October 2025. Sandy reached about 9.3 ft, nearly 2 ft higher.

Cape May: 8.3 ft -- major. Higher than October 2025. Sandy reached about 8.9 ft, roughly 0.6 ft higher.

Barnegat Light, Ocean City and Manasquan are especially useful indicators of back-bay flooding, while Sandy Hook and Perth Amboy characterize the northern coastal/Raritan Bay area. The gauge forecast is a reference point for the surrounding tidal basin; it doesn't mean every street in that community reaches the gauge's stated elevation.

So while this is not expected to approach Sandy’s overall magnitude or impacts, Saturday’s forecast represents historically significant water levels at several locations and is running above the October 2025 nor’easter at these gauges.

And this is not one bad high tide: moderate flooding is forecast tonight, major flooding Saturday morning, followed by additional moderate flooding Saturday evening and Sunday morning before water levels gradually subside.

The key change is not that major flooding suddenly became possible; that risk has been on the table for days. The change is that major flooding is now explicitly forecast at multiple gauges for Saturday morning.

(Image: Long Beach Boulevard, LBI, Oct. 2025 - courtesy Sandi Wenstrom Messina)

09/25/2026

Current conditions in Seaside Park at high tide.

09/25/2026

Sunset today in Brigantine by JSHN contributor Kelly Ann.

09/25/2026

For the Jersey Shore, the main power outage risk window is Friday evening through Saturday afternoon, when the strongest winds are expected. NWS is warning of the potential for widespread outages.

PowerOutage.com places the Shore within a broader Northeast Level 2 outage risk zone, associated with 250,000–500,000 peak outages across the broader Level 2 area. This is not New Jersey alone.

The outlook carries moderate confidence and is based on forecast wind intensity, duration and coverage compared with how similar conditions have translated into outages in past events. The purpose of sharing this is for preparedness and situational awareness.

09/24/2026

JSHN contributor Jeff Keller captured this striking image at the north end of Brigantine a few hours before today’s upcoming 6:52 p.m. high tide. The beach has already been stripped back enough that the ocean is reaching the base of the dunes and cutting into the dune face -- and unfortunately, the worst impacts from this prolonged coastal event are still ahead. “We lost a lot of beach after last winter,” he said.

09/24/2026

Seaside Park merchant Dom is live from the beach as we near high tide on the oceanfront, showing the surf and erosion firsthand. Beaches up and down the Shore continue to take a beating, with pounding surf scouring sand from the shoreline and steadily narrowing the beach. Similar erosion is being reported elsewhere along the coast. With elevated water levels and heavy surf continuing into the weekend, erosion will continue before conditions finally begin to improve. It’s only late September, so there’s a long fall and winter storm season still ahead. Significant erosion this early leave beaches narrower and dunes more exposed before the next coastal storm arrives.